Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Rutland, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 123 AM EDT Monday...No significant adjustments were needed with fog being a little less expansive at this hour and suppressed mainly towards southern Vermont. Best chance for fog spreading northward will be in the 4-6AM timeframe. Otherwise, the forecast continues as expected.

Previous Discussion...Tomorrow will be very similar today, just a little warmer and a little more humid. High pressure will start to shift eastward during the day, allowing south/southwest flow to develop across our region. The result will be an increase in moisture; dewpoints will mostly stay in the 50s, but it should start to feel a little more muggy by the afternoon.
Like today, forcing will be weak, and we'll have a mid-level warm layer, but daytime heating and instability could be enough to allow some more showers to pop up, particularly over the higher terrain. They should remain fairly isolated though, so most areas will remain dry. It'll be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80F.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 308 PM EDT Sunday...The start of a warm and unsettled stretch of weather looks to begin on Tuesday and continue throughout the week as ridging finally exits the region. Shower chances look to increase Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with moisture advecting into the region, although. current precipitation amounts look fairly light during this period. High temperatures look to climb into the 70s, with locations in the northern Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys nearing 80. Overnight lows Tuesday night will remain on the mild side given lingering precipitation and clouds, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is nearly 10 degrees warmer than climatological normals this time of year.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 308 PM EDT Sunday...A period of unsettled and increasingly warm weather can be expected for the later half of the week as an upper level trough and associated frontal boundaries approach the region.
Moisture will continue to stream into the region under warm, southerly flow, with PWAT values exceeding 1.5 inches by Thursday.
Temperatures will also be on the rise, with highs in the 80s both days. Overnight temperatures will also be warm with lows only dropping into the 60s. Given the heat, plenty of afternoon instability can be expected, with afternoon thunderstorms likely to develop. There is still a little uncertainty of the exact location of the boundary and how quickly it progress, and whether Wednesday or Thursday will have more favorable conditions for convection, but both days have the potential for heavy rain and/or strong thunderstorms with any convection that does develop. At this time, WPC currently has the region in a Marginal Risk for the Excessive Rainfall Outlook surging this time period. Towards Friday, temperatures look to trend closer to seasonable normals with highs in the 70s as the frontal boundary exits the region, with a brief period of drier conditions expected as we head towards Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated except for MPV/SLK where some fog could from in the 7-10Z time frame. Otherwise, light drainage flow will become southerly after 12Z with increasing clouds after 18Z. A few showers are possible this afternoon, but mostly isolated and over terrain.
SLK has the best chance of an afternoon shower, but still only scattered in coverage.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.