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FXUS61 KBTV 300343 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1043 PM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake-effect snow showers in the St. Lawrence Valley, along with some isolated flurries and snow showers in the mountains, will diminish overnight. Milder air will return on southerly breezes during the day Thursday. The warmup will lead to a mix of rain and snow with the next system, with some light snow accumulations Friday night. Additional rounds of precipitation are likely during the weekend and early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
1040 PM UPDATE...

Forecast remains largely on track so only made minor changes to bring it up to date. Upstream obs in Ontario along with Ogdensburg and a few webcams in the Adirondacks are showing flurries and snow showers. Expect this activity to shift southeastward before subsiding by the pre-dawn hours. There could be localized blowing snow across the St Lawrence valley where southwest winds are gusting 20-25 mph. Locations across VT are expected to stay mostly dry through the overnight hours.
See previous discussion below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

It's a relatively uneventful period after snowier weather the last couple of days. Main area of snow showers that was pivoting northward through St. Lawrence County this afternoon is currently hugging the St. Lawrence River. Snowfall amounts will mainly be less than 2 inches, greatest where snow showers are more persistent. The lake-effect snow showers will generally stay put in western portions of the region while gradually shifting back to the east early in the morning. Showers will diminish as lake-air temperature differences decrease and an influx of drier air aloft moves into the region. Said drying will promote a sunnier day throughout northern New York and Vermont as heights rise and ridging aloft occurs by afternoon.
In fast, zonal flow, the next shortwave will quickly follow spreading some high clouds into the region while a weak cold front to our northwest also approaches. This front will struggle to make it out of Canada, with low level flow remaining southerly through the period. High temperatures should be several degrees warmer than today, reaching above freezing for all but the highest terrain.

A strong westerly 850millibar jet will traverse the North Country and across Vermont tomorrow night, which will produce 30 to 40 MPH gusts on Lake Champlain and some 50 to 60 MPH gusts on our higher summits. Given the stability involved in the warm air advection pattern in the nighttime hours, its unlikely to mix down such that a downslope wind storm occurs, but we'll watch for an isolated stronger gust elsewhere. Otherwise, thermal profiles generally will support some light rain showers with a slight chance of frozen precipitation in the higher elevations in northern New York. These showers should gradually shift southeastward with time, stretching perhaps into northwestern Vermont by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 343 PM EST Wednesday...A weak low will pass south of the North Country Friday into Friday night and spread light precipitation across the region. Model guidance has mostly converged on a solution that brings precipitation north to the Canadian border so the whole region should see a period of steady precipitation Friday night.
PoPs and QPF amounts were therefore increased a little in northern areas. There will still be a sharp gradient at the edge of this precipitation so a small shift in its axis could leave the northernmost areas mostly dry. Precipitation type will be mostly elevation dependent so higher elevations will receive mostly snow and the broad valleys will receive mostly rain, but the snow level will drop a little Friday night so there could be some snow showers in the valleys late in the night. Isothermal soundings with temperatures right around freezing in the first few thousand feet above the surface suggest a wet, heavy snow will fall. Forecast snow amounts are generally in the 1-3 inch above 1500 ft and 0-1 inch range above 500 ft so the impacts will be much lower than the previous storm. Precipitation rates should be high enough for a period Friday night that some dynamic cooling will occur and help the precipitation in the marginal temperatures be snow. For this reason, continued to trend on the colder side of guidance and this could cause some of the lower elevations to receive slightly higher accumulations than forecast. The steady precipitation moves out late Friday night but some guidance, particularly the NAM, keep extensive low level saturation below the DGZ, something that could lead to some freezing drizzle in the higher elevations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 343 PM EST Wednesday....The main features of the extended period will be a few rounds of light precipitation moving through over the weekend into early next week. Currently confidence is increasing that there will not be any large impactful systems but that cannot be fully ruled out yet.

The first round of precipitation looks to be on Saturday as a warm front passes through the region. Precipitation should be light with even the highest ensemble members keeping precipitation amounts under a quarter inch. It looks to be mostly snow showers at higher elevations and rain showers at lower elevations but with light precipitation amounts and many areas above freezing during the day, snowfall accumulations should be minimal. After this point, model guidance begins to significantly diverge so confidence in specific precipitation timing and amounts after this point is low.

The next round of precipitation looks to be Sunday night into Monday when a stronger coastal low may develop. The Euro transfers energy from a primary low over the Great lakes to a secondary coastal low relatively quick and has a colder and snowier solution. The GFS keeps the primary low stronger and transfers the energy later which leads to a warmer and rainier solution. However, there has been an overall trend toward a weaker system with less precipitation. EPS probabilities of snowfall reaching 6 inches in any 24 hour period are only around 20-30 percent for the highest areas in Vermont while the GFS probabilities are only around 10-20 percent. A third round of wintry precipitation might move through on Wednesday but that is looking less likely at this point.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00z Friday...VFR conditions are largely forecast for the period except at SLK and MSS where southwesterly flow is resulting in alternating MVFR and low VFR ceilings. SSW or S winds sustained in the 8-12kt range will continue through much of the period at most sites, with some gusts in the 20-25 kt range, particularly at MSS but also at BTV. WSW low- level wind shear at 2000 ft is possible at SLK towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN, Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Slight chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

MARINE
A period of strong south winds is expected Thursday night. Winds will ramp up above 25 knots on the broad lake and northern waters by the evening hours and gradually decrease overnight.
Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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