Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warrensburg, NY
December 7, 2023 9:11 AM EST (14:11 UTC)
Sunrise 7:11AM Sunset 4:21PM Moonrise 2:26AM Moonset 2:22PM
Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 071143 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 643 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Some snow showers are expected today, with the steadiest snow west of the Hudson River. We see a drying and warming trend Friday and Saturday, but a strong cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will bring widespread rain and breezy conditions to the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Clouds spreading into the region from the west and northwest and some light snow in western NY/PA slowly building east and southeast. Increasing warm advection and isentropic lift will support an eastward movement of the snow through the day, while low level ridging and dry air at low levels over New England will cause any snow to tend to dry up as it reaches western New England.
Where the eastern edge of any snow shower activity sets up is uncertain. So, high chance to likely chances for snow in areas west of the Hudson Valley, with chances in the Hudson Valley to parts of Western New England. Some dustings once again likely, especially west of the Hudson Valley and locally around an inch, while some areas get nothing to barely a dusting perhaps around Lake George into parts of southern VT and northern Berkshires.
Once we see the area of snow continue to develop and expand, updated snow chances and amounts through this morning.
Highs with the clouds and intermittent light snow and snow showers, in the 30s with upper 20s southern Adirondacks.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Continued weak warm advection aloft with upper level ridging continuing to build into our region from the west tonight with stronger boundary layer warm advection through the day Friday. Low level flow will be from the northwest, trending west, enough of a Great Lakes trajectory to keep quite a bit of cloudiness across our region through Thursday night and Friday. Although, as the boundary layer ridge axis shifts east of the region Friday afternoon, and boundary layer winds turn west to southwest, clouds will tend to break up.
The most potential sunshine Friday would be in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Highs Friday around 40 to mid 40s with 30s higher terrain. If there are areas of fog late Thursday night into early Friday morning, it could take much of the day for any of that fog to burn off, resulting in cooler temperatures but extremely low confidence about any fog despite a few hints in some sources of guidance for the potential.
More clearing Friday night into Saturday with increasing southwest winds at the boundary layer and rapid warm advection.
Once again, we will have to watch any fog potential late Friday night into early Saturday morning to see if it affects temperature trends on Saturday. Highs in the mid 40s to around 50 with lower 40s in higher terrain. Mid and high clouds increase Saturday night with lows above freezing to near 40 most areas.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Potential for a multi-hazard event Sunday night into early Monday with heavy rain potentially leading to localized flooding, gusty winds, and rain changing to wet snow in the hill towns and higher terrain...
A full-latitude trough from the Central CONUS digs into the Gulf Coast States for Sunday as two shortwave phase, amplifying the downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and resulting in anomalously strong southerly winds and warm air/moisture advection from the Gulf into the East Coast. 850hPa isotherms rise 2 standard deviations above normal and while a subsidence inversion should prevent deep boundary layer mixing, sfc temperatures likely still rise 10-15 degrees above normal. Current forecast shows highs reaching well into the 50s on Sunday with even some isolated 60 degree readings in the mid-Hudson Valley. Dew points will also reach into 40s/50s so it will definitely feel mild in comparison to recent days. The amplifying upstream trough and moisture advection will keep skies cloudy and sfc winds quite breezy as the sfc pressure gradient.
Latest guidance indicates that the parent trough remains neutrally tilted as it approaches the East Coast but the low and mid-level jet ahead of it increase impressively with v-component winds 3-3.5 standard deviations above normal. This will support strong moisture advection and as heights fall more rapidly Sunday afternoon into especially Sunday evening with a secondary sfc low developing along the front, periods of rain become increasingly likely. Given the amplitude of the parent trough and timing of the favorable jet dynamics, the most widespread and steady rain should hold off until Sunday evening/night; however, some periods of showers will likely reach parts of eastern NY and even western New England Sunday afternoon.
As the cold front finally moves into the region from west to east Sunday evening, guidance continues to suggest some limited elevated instability within this high shear/very low CAPE environment.
Some rumbles of thunder are possible (mainly Capital Region south) from low topped convection within the cold frontal rain band. Given strong kinematics through the column, we included gusty wind wording from any thunderstorms as well as heavy downpours due to PWATs and IVT ranging 3-5 standard deviations above normal. The heaviest rainfall rates should be immediately ahead and along the wind shift boundary. With unidirectional southerly flow through the column, moderate to locally heavy rain will likely linger for at least a few hours and may potentially result in localized flooding, depending on heavy rainfall rates and duration. Latest forecast shows widespread 1 to 2.5 inches falling Sunday night with locally higher amounts in the Catskills and south facing slope of the southern Adirondacks due to favorable upslope effects. Such a widespread rain event should also lead to river rises and we will monitor the potential for some rivers to reach flood stage. See hydro discussion for more details.
Immediately behind the cold front, winds shift sharply from the south to the west-northwest and advect in a much colder air mass.
Temperatures should drop quickly enough in the higher terrain and hill towns to support a transition to wet snow overnight Sunday into early Monday. Latest forecast shows a transition to wet snow down to 500 ft in elevation but we cannot completely rule out even some valley areas receiving a coating of wet snow, depending on the strength and track of the secondary sfc low along the cold front. Regardless, west-northwest winds turn windy behind the cold front and stay breezy into Monday. We may need a wind advisory, depending on our level of confidence for wind gusts to exceed 45mph.
Widespread moderate rain should exit into New England early Monday morning with cold advection continuing through the day, invoking a lake effect response. Expect lake effect snow showers to reach into the western/southern Adirondacks and northern Catskills with snow showers even reaching the southern Greens and Berkshires due to upslope enhancements. Otherwise, colder Monday with temperatures dropping through the day into the 20s/30s.
Next potential system to monitor is an arctic cold front for the middle to end of the work week.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Some pockets of MVFR conditions developing early this morning around Albany as seen via GOES16 satellite which is why included a TEMPO group for MVFR ceiling through 14 UTC. Otherwise, mid- level clouds from western and central NY will shift eastward this morning ahead of a disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. Expect snow showers to develop over ALB, GFL and POU by 16 - 18 UTC before shifting into PSF by 17 - 19 UTC. During periods of snow showers, MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely which is where we again utilized a TEMPO group for all terminals for the afternoon hours.
While guidance has been underestimating the eastward extent of the snow showers this afternoon, higher resolution guidance has finally trended a bit eastward with snow showers and given the eastward extend of the low and mid-level moisture, we felt confident enough to continue showing a TEMPO for potential snow showers and MVFR flying conditions. Moisture lingers through the end of the TAF period so we lingered the potential for MVFR ceilings and showed VCSH or light snow showers through the end of the TAF period for all sites.
Light northwesterly winds tonight turn south to southwesterly by 12-15 UTC but remain light (under 5kts).
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts
Likely SHRA
RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts
Definite SHRA
RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
Strong storm system is expected to bring locally heavy rain to the region Sunday and Sunday night. There is increasing confidence for a widespread inch or more of rain. Some rivers could approach bank full or even minor flood stage, depending on how much rain falls, how much snow can melt out of higher elevations and frozen versus non frozen ground, all factors affecting the magnitude of runoff. There could be some nuisance urban and small stream flooding in low lying areas as well.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 643 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Some snow showers are expected today, with the steadiest snow west of the Hudson River. We see a drying and warming trend Friday and Saturday, but a strong cold frontal passage Sunday night into Monday will bring widespread rain and breezy conditions to the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Clouds spreading into the region from the west and northwest and some light snow in western NY/PA slowly building east and southeast. Increasing warm advection and isentropic lift will support an eastward movement of the snow through the day, while low level ridging and dry air at low levels over New England will cause any snow to tend to dry up as it reaches western New England.
Where the eastern edge of any snow shower activity sets up is uncertain. So, high chance to likely chances for snow in areas west of the Hudson Valley, with chances in the Hudson Valley to parts of Western New England. Some dustings once again likely, especially west of the Hudson Valley and locally around an inch, while some areas get nothing to barely a dusting perhaps around Lake George into parts of southern VT and northern Berkshires.
Once we see the area of snow continue to develop and expand, updated snow chances and amounts through this morning.
Highs with the clouds and intermittent light snow and snow showers, in the 30s with upper 20s southern Adirondacks.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Continued weak warm advection aloft with upper level ridging continuing to build into our region from the west tonight with stronger boundary layer warm advection through the day Friday. Low level flow will be from the northwest, trending west, enough of a Great Lakes trajectory to keep quite a bit of cloudiness across our region through Thursday night and Friday. Although, as the boundary layer ridge axis shifts east of the region Friday afternoon, and boundary layer winds turn west to southwest, clouds will tend to break up.
The most potential sunshine Friday would be in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Highs Friday around 40 to mid 40s with 30s higher terrain. If there are areas of fog late Thursday night into early Friday morning, it could take much of the day for any of that fog to burn off, resulting in cooler temperatures but extremely low confidence about any fog despite a few hints in some sources of guidance for the potential.
More clearing Friday night into Saturday with increasing southwest winds at the boundary layer and rapid warm advection.
Once again, we will have to watch any fog potential late Friday night into early Saturday morning to see if it affects temperature trends on Saturday. Highs in the mid 40s to around 50 with lower 40s in higher terrain. Mid and high clouds increase Saturday night with lows above freezing to near 40 most areas.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Potential for a multi-hazard event Sunday night into early Monday with heavy rain potentially leading to localized flooding, gusty winds, and rain changing to wet snow in the hill towns and higher terrain...
A full-latitude trough from the Central CONUS digs into the Gulf Coast States for Sunday as two shortwave phase, amplifying the downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and resulting in anomalously strong southerly winds and warm air/moisture advection from the Gulf into the East Coast. 850hPa isotherms rise 2 standard deviations above normal and while a subsidence inversion should prevent deep boundary layer mixing, sfc temperatures likely still rise 10-15 degrees above normal. Current forecast shows highs reaching well into the 50s on Sunday with even some isolated 60 degree readings in the mid-Hudson Valley. Dew points will also reach into 40s/50s so it will definitely feel mild in comparison to recent days. The amplifying upstream trough and moisture advection will keep skies cloudy and sfc winds quite breezy as the sfc pressure gradient.
Latest guidance indicates that the parent trough remains neutrally tilted as it approaches the East Coast but the low and mid-level jet ahead of it increase impressively with v-component winds 3-3.5 standard deviations above normal. This will support strong moisture advection and as heights fall more rapidly Sunday afternoon into especially Sunday evening with a secondary sfc low developing along the front, periods of rain become increasingly likely. Given the amplitude of the parent trough and timing of the favorable jet dynamics, the most widespread and steady rain should hold off until Sunday evening/night; however, some periods of showers will likely reach parts of eastern NY and even western New England Sunday afternoon.
As the cold front finally moves into the region from west to east Sunday evening, guidance continues to suggest some limited elevated instability within this high shear/very low CAPE environment.
Some rumbles of thunder are possible (mainly Capital Region south) from low topped convection within the cold frontal rain band. Given strong kinematics through the column, we included gusty wind wording from any thunderstorms as well as heavy downpours due to PWATs and IVT ranging 3-5 standard deviations above normal. The heaviest rainfall rates should be immediately ahead and along the wind shift boundary. With unidirectional southerly flow through the column, moderate to locally heavy rain will likely linger for at least a few hours and may potentially result in localized flooding, depending on heavy rainfall rates and duration. Latest forecast shows widespread 1 to 2.5 inches falling Sunday night with locally higher amounts in the Catskills and south facing slope of the southern Adirondacks due to favorable upslope effects. Such a widespread rain event should also lead to river rises and we will monitor the potential for some rivers to reach flood stage. See hydro discussion for more details.
Immediately behind the cold front, winds shift sharply from the south to the west-northwest and advect in a much colder air mass.
Temperatures should drop quickly enough in the higher terrain and hill towns to support a transition to wet snow overnight Sunday into early Monday. Latest forecast shows a transition to wet snow down to 500 ft in elevation but we cannot completely rule out even some valley areas receiving a coating of wet snow, depending on the strength and track of the secondary sfc low along the cold front. Regardless, west-northwest winds turn windy behind the cold front and stay breezy into Monday. We may need a wind advisory, depending on our level of confidence for wind gusts to exceed 45mph.
Widespread moderate rain should exit into New England early Monday morning with cold advection continuing through the day, invoking a lake effect response. Expect lake effect snow showers to reach into the western/southern Adirondacks and northern Catskills with snow showers even reaching the southern Greens and Berkshires due to upslope enhancements. Otherwise, colder Monday with temperatures dropping through the day into the 20s/30s.
Next potential system to monitor is an arctic cold front for the middle to end of the work week.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Some pockets of MVFR conditions developing early this morning around Albany as seen via GOES16 satellite which is why included a TEMPO group for MVFR ceiling through 14 UTC. Otherwise, mid- level clouds from western and central NY will shift eastward this morning ahead of a disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. Expect snow showers to develop over ALB, GFL and POU by 16 - 18 UTC before shifting into PSF by 17 - 19 UTC. During periods of snow showers, MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely which is where we again utilized a TEMPO group for all terminals for the afternoon hours.
While guidance has been underestimating the eastward extent of the snow showers this afternoon, higher resolution guidance has finally trended a bit eastward with snow showers and given the eastward extend of the low and mid-level moisture, we felt confident enough to continue showing a TEMPO for potential snow showers and MVFR flying conditions. Moisture lingers through the end of the TAF period so we lingered the potential for MVFR ceilings and showed VCSH or light snow showers through the end of the TAF period for all sites.
Light northwesterly winds tonight turn south to southwesterly by 12-15 UTC but remain light (under 5kts).
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts
Likely SHRA
RA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts
Definite SHRA
RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
HYDROLOGY
Strong storm system is expected to bring locally heavy rain to the region Sunday and Sunday night. There is increasing confidence for a widespread inch or more of rain. Some rivers could approach bank full or even minor flood stage, depending on how much rain falls, how much snow can melt out of higher elevations and frozen versus non frozen ground, all factors affecting the magnitude of runoff. There could be some nuisance urban and small stream flooding in low lying areas as well.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGFL FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL,NY | 17 sm | 18 min | calm | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 19°F | 14°F | 79% | 30.02 |
Wind History from GFL
(wind in knots)Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:49 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:24 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:49 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:20 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:30 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.2 |
| 1 am |
| 3.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| -0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.7 |
| 10 am |
| 2.9 |
| 11 am |
| 3.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.4 |
Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.2 |
| 1 am |
| 3.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 3.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 4 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.5 |
Burlington, VT,
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