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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 354 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Light showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 022014 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 314 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

DISCUSSION

Remaining isolated/widely scattered light showers will end this afternoon with dry weather holding through the evening into the overnight. Cloudy skies will persist though so overnight minimum temperatures will remain relatively mild, holding largely in the middle to upper 30s.

Precipitation will then expand back into the area as low pressure tracks into Lower Michigan on Sunday. This system is currently in the developmental stage as shortwave energy ejects eastward through the central plains today. Showers will begin to work into the area early Sunday morning, but most of the activity will occur during the daytime hours. Given the mild airmass in place and the fact that the upper wave tracks right over the area, expect a majority of the precipitation to fall as rain again with perhaps some snow mixed in primarily over the Saginaw Valley. Little to no accumulations are expected as highs will reach the upper 30s over this sector while the remainder of the forecast area climbs into the lower-mid 40s.

Lingering scattered rain/snow showers Sunday evening will end before midnight with dry weather holding into Monday evening. Temperatures will be a bit colder as upper level troughing expands over the area with highs back into the 30s to around 40 Monday and lows into the 20s Monday night.

A clipper low pressure system will then track into the Great Lakes on Tuesday with rain and/or snow working into the area late Monday night and continuing through the day Tuesday. The overall airmass will be colder by this time frame (H85 temperatures approaching - 5C), but still marginal for any meaningful snowfall as temperatures generally rise into the mid/upper 30s during the day. So, while the areal coverage of snow -vs rain will be more substantial, potential for accumulation remains muted.

This passing shortwave will briefly amplify the mean upper trough over the area and lead to relatively cool temperatures through the middle of next week. However, the overall upper level pattern will become rather progressive with this deeper upper trough shifting east late in the week with upper ridging expanding east to replace it. This will lead to moderating conditions will temperatures back well into the 40s if not 50 degrees by the end of next week. The precipitation chances after Tuesday will remain rather minor and will mainly result from this impending milder airmass overrunning the cooler air in place in the mid/late week period.

MARINE

With the departure of low pressure, winds gradually weaken and turn easterly through the night. This quiet period will be extremely brief as another developing low is set to arrive Sunday again tracking over the southern Great Lakes. Tightening gradient in advance of this system leads to a rapid uptick in easterly winds particularly over the northern portion of Lake Huron where peak gusts between 20-25kts are expected through much of daytime Sunday.
System brings generally rain showers though some snow mixing in is possible over the northern half of the region. Low vacates the area by Sunday night setting up only modest (sub 20kt) northwesterly flow in its wake for Monday. While flow direction favors building waves around the tip of the Thumb, waves currently look to hold just below small craft criteria. Active pattern continues through the next work week as a series of weak systems swing across the Great Lakes. At this point however marine impacts look to be minor with main impact repeated shots for rain-snow showers. Lack of significant cold air and weaker gradient with these systems not supportive of strong winds/subsequent headlines.

HYDROLOGY

Another round of primarily rainfall will bring up to one quarter of an inch or rainfall to the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. No flooding concerns are expected at this time from this system.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1237 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

AVIATION...

Influence from a ridge of high pressure over the northern Great Lakes has brought steady mid-level subsidence today, strengthening the inversion around 4000 ft and trapping abundant moisture beneath.
The low clouds have lifted slightly to borderline IFR/MVFR for many sites, which should hold through the afternoon. Expect the onset of nocturnal cooling to trend ceilings back down to IFR, especially as light northeast wind off Lake Huron continues to supply a marine moisture contribution. A period of drizzle is likely overnight, preceding the arrival of more widespread light rain Sunday morning as the next low pressure system moves in from the south. This will keep the lower ceilings around with guidance showing high probabilities for at least IFR to hold through the end of the period. The cooler air will be held to the northwest, limiting the chance for any snow on Sunday - though mbS may see a few melting flakes mix in.

For DTW...Lower MVFR conditions to start the period, but will likely see IFR settle back in by this evening. High confidence in rain on Sunday, mainly between 13z and 22z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon through Sunday.

* High in precip type remaining as all rain on Sunday.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ421.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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