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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeland, MI

June 25, 2024 5:12 AM EDT (09:12 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 9:24 PM
Moonrise 11:27 PM   Moonset 8:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017

Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southeast early in the afternoon - .then becoming light and variable late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning - .then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of light showers until early morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Monday - North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon - .then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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555 FXUS63 KDTX 250758 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 358 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A thunderstorm complex moves through central and southern Lower Michigan this morning. The system will be capable of strong to locally damaging wind gusts and possibly flooding rainfall.

- An additional round of thunderstorms is possible tonight into early Wednesday, mainly along and south of the I-94 corridor to the Ohio border.

- Cooler and less humid air moves back into the area by Wednesday night and lasts through Thursday.

- The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Multiple convective clusters blossomed across the upper Midwest since sunset and are the forecast focus for Lower MI through this morning. The northern WI cluster became dominant in a location where mesoscale low pressure focused strong acceleration of the low level jet. Aggressive transport of moisture and instability now continues along and ahead of the southward extending surface warm front that marks the instability axis attracting persistence the existing storm complex or new storm development through the early morning cycle of nocturnal/elevated instability generation. This presents both a severe storm and excessive rainfall hazard across central and southern Lower MI this morning.

There is room for additional upscale growth of the main northern WI convective cluster into full MCS organization which gives it a chance to overcome instability limitations with eastward extent into SE Lower Mi. Zonal 50 kt flow at 500 mb is a marker for enough shear to maintain balance long enough for sufficient strengthening of the low level cold pool and rear inflow. The mesoscale forcing then becomes strong enough for the system to remain surface based as the larger scale instability axis leans into western Lower MI toward sunrise where the strongest and most organized part of the system is favored to track. We also have to assume the eastern flank will be capable of severe intensity until it is proven the sharp eastward instability gradient can take a toll on the MCS strength as it tracks toward the Tri Cities and Thumb shortly after sunrise, and farther toward the I69 corridor by mid morning. A more typical weakening trend then continues late morning due to both weakening of the low level jet and veering/weakening inflow. This leaves more of a heavy rainfall threat in place for the Detroit metro area southward until the remains of the system exit into Ontario and Ohio by early afternoon.

Conditions across SE MI will be stabilized considerably this afternoon, first by rain-cooled boundary layer air and then by warm temperatures aloft for the remainder of the day. A substantial west to east outflow boundary ends up south of the Ohio border which is later joined by the trailing surface trough that forces the instability axis into a similar west to east configuration by this evening. Additional surface based storms will be slow to develop along the hybrid outflow/prefrontal trough due to the capping aloft and little to no additional forcing on the heels of the early day system. Instead, another round of low level jet forced thunderstorm complexes are likely to initiate upstream where another round of surface low pressure is projected to form. This wave runs eastward along the surface trough keeping showers and storms mainly along and south of the IN/OH border until merging with the next northern stream mid level short wave. Showers and weaker storms spread back into SE MI Wednesday morning until the primary cold front sweeps through in the afternoon.

Cooler and less humid air follows the Wednesday front which brings high temperatures back down into the 70s across the area by Thursday. Broad high pressure settles over the region Thursday into Friday but is kept moving by the large scale upper air pattern that maintains a progressive character through next weekend.

MARINE

Remnant convection from WI/western Great Lakes works into the central Great Lakes this morning bringing the potential for a few strong/severe wind gusts within thunderstorm activity. These showers and storms clear the area by midday though a slow moving cold front dropping through the area will offer another window for showers and storms to redevelop latter part of today. These chances are mainly focused over the southern Great Lakes. Breezy SW conditions in advance of said front have led to the need for small craft advisories for all nearshore waters through much of the day today.
An upper level trough settles into the Great Lakes Wednesday through late week bringing seasonably cooler conditions as well as more unsettled weather.

HYDROLOGY

A complex of thunderstorms moves north to south across Lower Michigan this morning. Locally flooding rainfall is possible from this system as it produces widespread totals near 0.5 inch during the morning and isolated totals of 1 to 2 inches before exiting the area this afternoon.

After a break during the afternoon, a second round of storms becomes possible tonight into Wednesday morning. The latest storm trends still support the best thunderstorm potential along and south of I94 where additional totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are likely and isolated totals up to 1 inch are possible until the pattern exits the area by Wednesday afternoon.

The potential for flooding in each event is greater where repeated rounds of storms occur over the same area making ponding of water on roads and in prone low lying areas likely. The Tuesday and Wednesday activity collectively could lead to a brief response in the level of streams and rivers across the area through mid week.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

AVIATION...

Mid/upper clouds will expand east into the area overnight in advance of developing/encroaching convective system. This system will bring a chance of thunderstorms by 10z-12z from northwest to southeast with shra/tsra activity possibility persisting for 3 to 5 hours into Tuesday morning before dissipating/moving southeast of the region.
The main impacts will be lowered visibility in heavy downpours and an isolated strong wind gust. Warmer air arrives on a breezy southwest wind Tuesday afternoon with a slight chance for additional convection to develop as the cold front moves through late. Will leave out of the forecast at this time given low chance and low confidence.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Tuesday morning TSRA window remains the same in this forecast (13z-16z). These storms could bring locally heavy downpours and possibly isolated wind gusts. Will main a dry forecast beyond 16z at this time, but will re-evaluate as isolated shra/tsra could develop along encroaching cold front late in the day Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings aob 5kft Tuesday after after 12z.

* Medium in thunderstorms Tuesday morning mainly 13-16z. Low confidence late Tuesday afternoon.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi72 minS 21G23 72°F 29.78
45163 40 mi32 minS 16G19 71°F 2 ft29.79
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi32 minSSE 21G23 71°F 29.78
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi32 minS 2.9G9.9 68°F 29.77


Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMBS MBS INTL,MI 2 sm19 minS 1110 smA Few Clouds68°F59°F73%29.77
KIKW JACK BARSTOW,MI 11 sm17 minS 0910 smMostly Cloudy70°F59°F69%29.75
KHYX SAGINAW COUNTY H W BROWNE,MI 16 sm17 minS 0910 smPartly Cloudy68°F59°F73%29.77
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Wind History graph: MBS
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Detroit, MI,




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