Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 6:57PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:51 AM EDT (10:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:44PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 308 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 25 knots this morning. Partly cloudy. A chance of waterspouts in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the west after midnight. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201910141515;;682833 FZUS53 KDTX 140708 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 308 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-141515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 140957
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
557 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Aviation
Low-level cold advection and subtle mid-level subsidence will
strengthen the inversion based around 5-6 kft today. Lake-enhanced
moisture trapped beneath the inversion will keep stratus in place
through the morning for most of the area, evolving to stratocumulus
as daytime heating ramps up. Ceiling heights expected to remain low
vfr, but brief periods of MVFR will be possible early in the
forecast. Low clouds begin to scatter out later this afternoon and
evening while high clouds quickly fill in from the west. Westerly
gradient remains in place today as high pressure builds in from the
south, which eventually allows winds to become light to calm tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings AOB 5 kft this morning, low by mid afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 304 am edt Mon oct 14 2019
discussion...

conditions today will remain governed by cold weakly cyclonic flow,
as southeast michigan continues to reside within the southern
periphery of a sprawling mid level cyclone lifting across eastern
ontario. This underlying pattern augmented by the downstream
advection of moisture off lake michigan and daytime heating will
support a higher coverage of stratus stratocu throughout the
daylight period. The limited insolation potential will effectively
reinforce an already cold resident environment - existing low level
thermal trough defined by 850 mb temperatures near -4c. This
supports highs of upper 40s to lower 50s... Or a solid 10 degrees
below average.

Surface ridging marking the transition toward deeper layer stability
as upper level flow turns weakly anticylonic takes residence
tonight. This process favors a progressive clearing of any lingering
stratocu coincident with the loss of diurnal support this evening,
with simply some thinner high cloud overnight. A corresponding
reduction in the near surface gradient and increasing depth
magnitude of dry air continue to signal a respectable radiational
cooling opportunity. This will bring most locations down into the
middle 30s early Tuesday morning, allowing for widespread frost
formation. A frost advisory now in effect to highlight this
expectation. Resident thermal profile seemingly just a touch too
warm to support a higher coverage of low temperatures of freezing,
although the very coldest locales may near this value. This will
preclude consideration of a freeze headline.

Northern stream shortwave now ejecting out of british columbia will
strengthen over the next 36 hours as it digs southeast across the
northern conus. The resulting deep mid level circulation will then
pivot across the great lakes Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A
period of modest warm air advection will emerge downstream of these
height falls Tuesday. This will net roughly a 10 degree warming
trend from readings noted Monday - highs mid 50s north to lower 60s
south. While deep layer northward moisture transport will generally
be lacking with this system given the mean westerly mid level flow,
there exists a window mainly late in the day for showers to emerge
within the ongoing isentropic ascent. Greater potential with
northward extent with any lead activity. Higher likelihood for
rainfall less than 0.25" Tuesday night tied to the attendant cold
frontal passage and associated increase in mid level dynamics with
the inbound upper circulation.

Cold cyclonic flow will again grip southeast michigan Wednesday.

Initial period of post-frontal cold air advection currently
projected to lack the strength noted for today 850 mb temperatures
near -1c , but will effectively maintain below normal conditions.

The ongoing cyclonic vorticity advection capitalizing on a diurnally
enhanced steep lapse rate environment will likely support a few
showers through the day. Modest mixing of a firm west to northwest
gradient will bring gusty conditions for the afternoon -
potentially in excess of 30 mph at times.

Resident colder pattern holds firm Wednesday night through Thursday
night, as deep layer northwest flow dictates conditions. Maintenance
of a sufficient boundary layer gradient precludes frost concerns
Wednesday night, with greater potential then again Thursday night as
surface ridging builds back in. Substantial height rises concurrent
with increasing southerly flow will then translate into a solid
warming trend starting Friday, with latest model guidance suggesting
this trend continues right into next weekend. Highs over the weekend
back into the 60s.

Marine...

elevated westerly gradient remains in place across lake huron today
as the center of broad low pressure continues tracking toward james
bay and high pressure builds into the ohio valley. Ample cold air
moving over the region in the wake of the departing system make
waterspouts possible today, particularly across northern lake huron.

Winds weaken tonight into early Tuesday, then back to the southeast
and restrengthen in advance of a developing low pressure system
set to track through the northern great lakes Tuesday night. Fresh
cold advection and strong northwest flow in the wake of the system
will have good potential to produce gales by late Wednesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Tuesday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lhz421-422-
441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Tf
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi52 min W 22 G 24 43°F 1011.9 hPa (+1.7)
45163 40 mi52 min W 18 G 21 44°F 53°F2 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi48 min WSW 25 42°F 1012.2 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi72 min WSW 8.9 G 14 38°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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S12
G15
S9
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G13
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G14
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G18
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G16
SW10
G13
SW12
G15
W8
G11
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G17
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G18
W5
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G11
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SW4
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G11
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G15
SW12
G17
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G17
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G16
SW11
G17
SW7
G13
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G17
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G14
S8
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S9
G12
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G13
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G14
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G16
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2 days
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S11
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G19
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G16
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G16
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S11
S14
G18
SE14
G20
SE11
G14
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G20
SE21
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G23
S19
G23
W14
G21
W11
G16
W7
G12
W8
G11
W10
G16
W10
G13
W8
G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi59 minSSW 510.00 miFair38°F33°F83%1013.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi57 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F32°F85%1012.9 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi77 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F33°F81%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12
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SW16SW17
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SW12W17
G24
W14W12W8SW4SW6SW6W6W8SW6SW6SW5SW6SW5SW5
1 day agoSW7SW9SW8SW11SW12S15
G20
SW17
G23
SW15
G20
SW15SW14
G24
S15
G22
SW11
G20
S8S8S9S11S13
G19
S15
G21
S15S16
G22
S14
G23
S15
G22
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S15
2 days agoSE10--SE9SE12SE11SE13S9SE12SE15S10
G21
S16
G21
SE15
G21
SE10SE12SW15W20
G25
W18
G25
W12W12W12W9W13W8SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.