Wednesday, January29, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 6:30 AM EST (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 350 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202001291615;;685301 FZUS53 KDTX 290850 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-291615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 290857 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

DISCUSSION.

A midlevel shortwave ridge will build in through the course of the day as yesterday's weak wave departs over the Atlantic. Modest subsidence will accompany this feature while anticyclonic flow trajectories become established locally with surface high pressure building into eastern Ontario/Quebec. The subsidence will maintain the persistent inversion around 850mb, but will not be strong enough to dissipate the low stratus deck that has plagued the region since last Friday. Low-level moisture trapped beneath the inversion will receive a slight enhancement through the day as light northeast wind allows a mostly unfrozen Lake Huron to add its contribution. Moisture depth remains limited thanks to the drying midlevels and precipitation is not likely today, though a few brief flurries may accompany the northeast wind shift this morning across the eastern Thumb. Highs today perhaps a degree or two lower than Tuesday given slightly lower 925mb temps in place. Diurnal trend in temps remains muted with abundant cloud cover in place - lows in the 20s tonight.

Forecast into Thursday and Friday is largely persistence based as the resident air mass undergoes little change with diffuse high pressure across the region and the jet stream displaced to our south. Some weakening shortwave energy will pass overhead early on Thursday, but with limited moisture supply and disorganized forcing the result will be nothing more than an increase in mid and high clouds as the column fails to achieve deep-layer saturation. Highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s will continue through the remainder of the week with little change in overall cloud cover.

Potential for more active weather then increases for the weekend as a clipper system dives into the region Saturday and we briefly reside under the left exit region of the associated jet streak. Many moving parts remain in play and uncertainty is high in the timing and track of the upper wave. However, impacts do look relatively limited at this time as moisture quality will be lacking and temperatures will likely be above freezing. Longwave ridging then sets up across the central CONUS for the early part of next week with a much warmer air mass set to push in from the west. Highs in the 40s certainly attainable for Monday, possibly making a run at 50 degrees near the Ohio border.

MARINE.

Light northeast flow of 10 to 15 knots today as high pressure builds into Quebec during the day. Even with the onshore flow, waves should remain below 4 feet.

Light and variable winds on Thursday will become light southwest on Friday as a weak cold front passes through on Saturday. Stronger southwest winds (20+ knots) appear possible early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1152 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

AVIATION .

A region of improved cigs (up to 3500 ft) opened up along the I-75 corridor this evening and have held rather stubbornly, despite being essentially surrounded by MVFR based cigs. Ongoing mid level subsidence and a developing (albeit weak) flow off Lake Huron during during the morning hours should trend the terminals back down to MVFR either around TAF issuance or within the next few hours. RAP model soundings suggest that the moisture flux off Lake Huron will actually support some subtle lowering of the cloud bases into Wed afternoon.

For DTW . Moisture trapped under a deep subsidence inversion will sustain stratus through Wed afternoon with high confidence. Ceiling heights still carry some degree of uncertainty, as there may be some continued fluctuation either side of 3k feet into the early morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . SF AVIATION . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi31 min NE 6 G 8 28°F 1021.7 hPa (+1.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi51 min WNW 7 G 8.9 27°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi38 minNE 410.00 miOvercast29°F21°F72%1023 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F22°F77%1022 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi36 minNE 510.00 miOvercast30°F23°F75%1021.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW9NW8N8N10N6NW7NW10NW6N8N7N4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE4NE5NE4
1 day agoNW4NW7NW5NW6NW5NW5N4NW6NW6N3NW3NW5NW8NW9NW6NW5W6W5W4W5SW4W5CalmNW8
2 days agoSW8SW9SW8W10W12SW12W13W11W12W10W14W10W11W8W8W9NW10NW7W7W9NW7NW5NW7NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.