Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Freeland, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 5:02PM Thursday December 12, 2019 6:04 AM EST (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 5:37PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 352 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of light rain and snow in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201912121615;;228246 FZUS53 KDTX 120852 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 352 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-121615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Freeland, MI
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location: 43.56, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 120846 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 346 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

DISCUSSION.

An active pattern is setting up for the coming week but locally it appears we dodge much of the strongest forcing leaving us with a lower confidence forecast for some periods of wet weather. The first system is already coming together over the northern Plains as a compact and low amplitude mid level shortwave induces a surface low that will then swing up through the Straits tonight. Surface high pressure combined with mid level ridging developing in response to the digging trough will lead to a dry and quiet day around SE MI. Winds out of the southwest persist through the day as the warm front comes together over northern MI. This will allow temps to rise back to near normal this afternoon in the mid/upper 30s. The outlier to the dry forecast could be across the far north, Saginaw Valley northward, where a portion of the developing warm frontal forcing band may clip it. The warm sector should push far enough north to keep the area dry through the day with the center of the low then passing just north overnight. This could bring the deeper moisture and broad forcing necessary to produce some precip. Thermal profile is deeply saturated between 0 and -10C with only hints that the top of the moist layer reaches the DGZ. This would suggest more liquid precip than snow. Currently low temps are forecast down into the low/mid 30s so looks warm enough to mitigate any light freezing rain/drizzle potential late tonight into friday morning.

Better chance of precip will come over the weekend as a strong southern stream wave lifting up the east coast attempts to phase with a northern stream trough that will swing through the Great Lakes on Saturday. Model consistency has been good regarding this complex pattern but that doesn't lead to a high confidence forecast locally. We will lack stronger forcing mechanisms to key in on for timing better chances for precip but instead will fall under the broader umbrella of anticyclonic flow of the merging systems. With so much in question regarding thermal profile and timing/amount of phasing, opted to keep generic rain/snow mix messaging friday and Saturday. Longwave trough axis will approach with surface cold front Sunday afternoon which will at least bring cold enough air to switch us to all snow if there remains enough moisture to precipitate. Will need to keep an eye out for some lake effect showers developing Sunday but at this point the wind profile does not appear strong enough to pull good moisture across the state so likely would be dealing with flurries.

Yet another system will then track near the southern Great Lakes from the four corners Monday and Monday night. GFS and ECMWF remain far apart with their solutions but the main story will be that a strong low may track through the Ohio Valley region which would put southern MI in the colder, deformation region of the low. Depending on how far north or south it tracks will determine how far north precipitation can reach and what ptype will occur. The piece of the jet that will be responsible for this storm isn't set to reach the NW conus til Saturday night so may be some time before models really start converging on a track.

MARINE.

Westerly and southwesterly winds will back to the south this morning and increase through the day as a surface ridge moves off to the eastern Great Lakes and a developing low pressure system lifts into northern Lake Michigan by this evening. The gradient will tighten through the afternoon as strong warm advection sweeps over, with just enough mixing and fetch over southern and central Lake Huron to allow for southerly gales by this afternoon and continuing into the evening. A Gale Warning remains in effect for much of the open waters, while a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the Lake Huron nearshore waters. The low will bring likely snow across northern Lake Huron today that will eventually turn to rain tonight as warmer air moves in. Winds taper off by tomorrow morning as the low weakens in the vicinity of the Straits. Broad troughing remains over the region Friday into Saturday, with light southerly winds Friday afternoon eventually flipping to light northerly on Saturday. A surge of arctic air will then move back into the region on Sunday morning, leading to unsettled marine conditions once again.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1155 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

AVIATION .

High pressure lifting across the region overnight will maintain a dry and stable environment. This ensures VFR conditions with clear skies across the lowest 6-8 kft throughout the night. Winds gradually diminishing as the high builds in, backing with time toward the southwest then south overnight. An elevated warm front will then lift across southeast Michigan Thursday. Mid level cloud with thicken ahead of this boundary late tonight and Thursday morning. The passage of this boundary may offer a brief window for some lower VFR cloud during the midday period, but retention of a dry low level environment limits this potential. South to southeast winds strengthening late in the day, sustained near 15 knots at times.

For DTW . Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft holds tonight. Brief window for a limited coverage of lower cloud carrying 3-5k ft cigs will exist late morning/early afternoon, simply highlighted with a sct mention attm.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling briefly below 5000 feet late morning/early afternoon Thursday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for LHZ362-363-462-463.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . TF AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 27 mi64 min SSW 9.9 G 12 19°F 1033.2 hPa (+0.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 43 mi24 min S 1 G 12 19°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 59 mi24 min SW 7 G 9.9 18°F 1033.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW10
G14
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G15
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G18
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G17
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G19
W17
G22
W12
G21
W16
G23
W10
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G20
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G16
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G11
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NW10
G16
NW11
G19
NW9
G18
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G16
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G13
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G12
NW7
G11
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G10
NW7
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G12
NW10
G13
NW4
G7
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G9
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G16
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G14
W12
G17
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G21
SW8
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G17
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SE8
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G11
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G14
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G17
SW13
G17
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G14
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G12
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G15
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G19
W17
G25
W15
G26
W7
G21
W12
G19
W9
G19
NW9
G14
NW10
G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI2 mi71 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy16°F10°F80%1035.1 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI11 mi69 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy16°F11°F83%1033.5 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI15 mi69 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy18°F12°F79%1034.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15
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W17W12W11W13W11W12W7SW4S4S4S4S5S4SE6S4
1 day agoW13NW14
G19
NW14
G21
NW12W10W11W13W13
G18
W13W11W12W12W10W16W12W13
G22
W13SW13SW12W17
G24
W13
G21
W15
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W16
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2 days agoS10S8S8S11S13S9S11SW9SW13
G24
SW12SW12
G22
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SW13SW11
G19
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G32
W21
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G35
W19W19
G27
NW12NW9
G17
W12
G22
NW14W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.