Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 1:08 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 930 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of today - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south after midnight. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then backing to the east early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 161057 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 657 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm today with widespread 70s.

- Scattered showers tonight with additional scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms daytime Friday.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly south of M-59, with an active weather pattern looking likely to set up early to middle of next week.

AVIATION

Patchy stratocu stays north and east of the terminal corridor as cloud layer wind veers toward the south this morning. Weak high pressure then continues to vacate the Great Lakes in favor of the Midwest low pressure system supporting showers and thunderstorms.
The eastern fringe of its cloud pattern reaches SE Mi by evening with a gradually lowering VFR ceiling tonight. A few showers are possible toward mbS before midnight followed by increasing coverage across the rest of SE Mi with a rumble of thunder late tonight. MVFR ceiling becomes widespread with the shower increase and as the low level moisture axis builds in ahead of the surface trough into Friday morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection... An isolated thunderstorm is possible within a broader area of showers late tonight. The storms will be elevated and weak but capable of a brief lower visibility downpour through Friday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and Friday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms late tonight and Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 249 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

DISCUSSION...

Southern fringe of surface high pressure over the Hudson Bay builds into southern lower MI today as mid-level ridging slides over-top.
This maintains lighter winds as surface flow turns more southeasterly in response to a weakening trough lifting into the upper Midwest. Widespread 70s are expected as a result for the majority of SE MI with cooler temps more confined to the shorelines, relative to yesterday. Height falls tied to the aforementioned trough begin working into the area by this afternoon as southwest low level flow promotes respectable moisture advection- PW values climb from ~0.6" this morning to over 1" by latter part of this evening. Increasing cloud cover accompanies this moisture surge with skies turning mostly cloudy around sunset. Lead ribbon of diminishing vorticity rounds the trough into lower MI tonight supporting generally scattered shower chances. Little to no thunder expected with this activity as instability looks to remain confined to west MI, at least through the overnight period. Better potential for wider spread showers as well as scattered thunderstorms arrives daytime Friday as instability shifts eastward in advance of the approaching washing out cold front. CAMs have trended a bit more bullish on available MLCAPE with values closer to the 750-1000 J/kg range supporting a better shot at thunder development; though sub- par mid-level lapse rates, shear holding closer to 25-30kts, and weaker frontal forcing, storms that fire are expected to be sub- severe.

Saturday southern lower MI comes under the influence by the periphery of southern stream mid-level troughing that will be traversing the Ohio Valley. This could provide just enough lift atop a warm, humider airmass (Td in the lower 60s) to offer a low-end chance for isolated pop-up convection during afternoon peak heating.
Instability supportive of this scenario looks to generally be hold to the southern CWA (south of M-59), collocated where the trough's influence is 'strongest', so have trimmed slight chance PoPs from northern areas. Even for these southern areas, most likely will not see any precip.

Northern stream trough that had been progged to track across the upper Midwest instead is now favored to slide further north along/north of the international border into northern Ontario. This places supporting shortwave energy likewise further north and further away from SE MI as its surface cold front drives across southern lower MI Sunday. With rain chances already slim in the original setup, this northerly drift should result in a completely dry Sunday for our area. Active pattern is still possible for the first half of next work week as a deepening longwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Plains looks supportive to send a series of shortwaves through the Great Lakes.

MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure extends south across the Great Lakes this morning, maintaining quiet marine conditions with light north wind that gradual turns more easterly today. A weakening low pressure system will track into western Lake Superior today, sending a dissipating and slow-moving frontal boundary across the rest of the region by late tonight. This may produce scattered showers overnight into Friday with an isolated non-severe storm possible as well. A diffuse pressure pattern maintains weak winds at or below 10 knots through the weekend with a more active pattern likely to set up early next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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