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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1248 Am Est Thu Nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers, then a chance of rain showers late. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Rain in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 300656 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 156 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will moves east tonight bringing a few lake effect snow showers with very minor accumulations possible northeast of the Lake Ontario through early Thursday morning. High pressure then builds in briefly for Thursday bringing dry and warmer weather. Generally unsettled, but milder weather returns for the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend with periodic rain chances.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Radar shows some light lake effect snow showers moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region during these early overnight hours as weak boundary crosses the region. Expect some minor lake enhancement NNE and NE of Lake Ontario overnight, however activity will remain on the light side with minor snowfall amounts of an inch or less, mainly across Jefferson and northern Lewis counties. Temperatures remain steady or even start to slowly rise overnight with early lows in the mid and upper 20s higher terrain and low to mid 30s lake plains and lakeshores.

Low level warming will continue Thursday with any lingering lake response off Lake Ontario ending no later than mid morning.
Otherwise, dry weather expected Thursday with at least partial sunshine as high pressure briefly builds into the region. The warm advection will extend through the surface allowing daytime temperatures to peak in the lower to mid 40s with some spots in the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes making a run at 50 degrees.
Expect the continuation of breezy conditions with modest mixing depths to around 2k feet pulling down gusts of 25-35 mph with the stronger wind gusts favored in downslope areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Mostly dry and breezy conditions will start off Thursday night as a southerly flow continues across the region. A weak cold front will be located across the Central Great Lakes and will slowly approach the region Thursday night. This coupled with increasing moisture will result in a few rain showers Thursday evening, becoming more numerous by late Thursday night.
Temperatures will hold steady if not wobble a few degrees Thursday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s, low 30s on the Tug Hill region.

Signals point to widespread rain moving into western and north central NY Friday. A southern stream system over the Plains will move northeast towards the region. Surface low pressure over Missouri will move along the aforementioned cold front to Indiana Friday. Increasing isentropic lift and moisture underneath the left exit region of a strong upper level jet will support an area of steady rain to move across western and north central NY. There is a chance snow may mix with the rain across the higher terrain. Liquid amounts will average 0.25-0.40 inches with the higher amounts across far western NY. Downsloping will result in the lower amounts across the Genesee Valley and northern Tug Hill region. Temperatures will be slow to climb Friday with highs in the low to mid 40s to the upper 30s across the higher terrain. By Friday night, the steady rain will move into northern NY with a break in widespread precipitation across the remainder of the area. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 30s, low 30s across the higher terrain.

The cold front will remain near or across the region Saturday.
Surface low pressure will move across the region and will support another round of showers, mainly rain but some snow showers possible across the higher terrain on Saturday. Steady showers will taper off from west to east later Saturday. Drier air will work into the region late Saturday into Saturday night with showers tapering off.
Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 30s to the upper 20s to low 30s east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The potential for precip during the long term period continues with new model runs. Models continue to bring a few rounds of showers into the area for the long term period. These rounds of quick passing showers will occur as a large trough over sets up over the Great Lakes and Northeast along with a few different shortwave troughs that track through the larger trough. This will result in at least chance POPs for most of the long term period and some likely POPs where models are in better agreement. Precipitation will be both rain and/or snow, depending on time of day and elevation of any particular area. Breaks in the precip can be expected at times between rounds of showers.

Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for the first half, and then cooling temperatures will bring temperatures to a few degrees below normal.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mainly MVFR CIGS found across the higher terrain and in lake effect clouds northeast of the Lakes (KBUF/KART) rest of tonight, with VFR conditions expected elsewhere (KIAG/low VFR possible KROC). Later tonight, conditions expected to improve to VFR across the Southern Tier (KJHW) as low clouds erode from southwest to northeast there.
There will be few scattered light lake effect snow showers northeast of Lake Ontario (KART) possibly causing intermittent MVFR VSBY restrictions through late tonight.

Any weakening spotty light lake effect snow shower activity northeast of Lake Ontario will end Thursday morning. Low VFR CIGS possible at KROC and MVFR CIGS at KART Thursday morning with VFR elsewhere. All terminals VFR for Thursday afternoon and evening.
LLWS looks possible toward the end of TAF period for some sites as low level inversion becomes established with increasing winds off the deck.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday...Restrictions likely in widespread rain and possible fog.
Sunday and Monday...Restrictions possible in scattered to numerous rain showers, possibly mixed with snow for higher terrain.

MARINE
Strong southwest flow will continue to keep winds and waves above headline criteria through Thursday night/early Friday morning, with long duration Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the upper/lower Niagara River and St. Lawrence River at this time. Winds and waves subside Friday into the weekend with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ042>045.

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