Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 9:17 AM   Moonset 12:28 AM

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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1019 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear late this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a few more showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday night - South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 130547 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 147 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic overnight, bringing mainly dry weather to our region. A warm front will move across the area Monday with a few periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. This front will usher in a period warm and unsettled weather which will last through the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Surface high pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic tonight, with a mid level ridge briefly moving across the eastern Great Lakes. This will provide mostly dry weather for most of the night, with varying amounts of cloud cover. Radar is picking up on some weak echos which may result in a brief period of sprinkles. For those attempting to see the Aurora Borealis again tonight, expect a few intervals of clouds that last for a few hours at any given location, with periods of partial clearing. Not ideal, but less cloud cover than last night.

Late tonight through Monday, a warm frontal segment and 40 knot LLJ will move across the area as the ridge departs to the east.
Increasing isentropic upglide and moisture transport associated with these features will bring showers into Western NY around daybreak, with the rain chances spreading quickly east from there Monday morning, arriving in the eastern Lake Ontario region during the afternoon. Modest diurnal instability may support a few spotty thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A gusty southwest wind in the warm sector behind the cold front will support an expanding stable lake shadow ENE of Lake Erie Monday afternoon, with mainly dry weather within this stable lake shadow following the morning showers.

The southwest winds may gust in the 20-30 mph range areawide, and up to 35 mph northeast of Lake Erie as the stronger winds aloft effectively downslope off the dome of stable air over Lake Erie.
Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be about 10 degrees warmer with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled weather will be the predominate theme during this period with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Monday night...there appears to be a brief lull in most of the shower activity but still can't say it will be completely dry overnight. Have low end PoPs (less than 30%) for much of the region.
Closer to the frontal boundary to our north-northwest for locations along the south shore of Lake Ontario and North Country will see the greatest potential for showers. Overall a mild night with lows found in the 50s for most locales.

The nearly stationary frontal boundary to our north and northwest Tuesday will draw closer or even sag into the region. Guidance continues to advertise several waves traversing this front which will 'potentially' bring numerous showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. Given that PW values will be hovering in the 1.15"-1.35" range, and overall light flow (small mbE vectors) any convection may produce periods of heavy rain at times. We will need to keep an eye on this potential
As was mentioned
severe weather still looks very limited with unfavorable shear profiles and the lack instability
Now for temperatures
the challenge here will be the position of the front and overall precipitation coverage. Still thinking we will see highs in the upper 60s for most locales but some spots could even climb into the low 70s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...the speed and track of the eastward advancing low will determine weather we continue to see wet weather or a slow but gradual drying trend.

Wednesday night...still looks like there will be some lingering showers but an overall drying trend does take place.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A progressive flow aloft will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms this period. Thursday may end up dry, with low PWATS and a narrow ridge of high pressure nearby...this between an east coast low, and trough across the Plains. However there is a possibility that a few showers from the east coast low sneak far enough westward into our eastern CWA

This western trough will push eastward, likely in the Friday to Saturday timeframe...with still a good deal of model spread to narrow down it's passage. Behind the trough lowering chances for precipitation, through a secondary trough dropping out of Canada may bring chances for showers to the North Country. Temperatures will average above normal, especially Friday ahead of the trough, and again on Sunday when a milder airmass begins to push northward.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are across the eastern Great Lakes region late tonight. An area of mid-level clouds extends north-south across western NY and will move east through the overnight hours. Regional radar shows weak echoes which may result in a brief period of scattered sprinkles at KROC and KART through daybreak. The backedge of the cloud deck will move into KIAG, KBUF, and KJHW late tonight. Valley fog may form across the western Southern Tier which could produce MVFR/IFR at KJHW for a brief period. A westerly low-level jet will strengthen across the region through Monday morning. There will be a brief period of low-level wind shear prior to surface winds increasing Monday morning.

A warm front will move across the region Monday afternoon. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will track across western NY through Monday morning and east of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon. VFR conditions will continue, however low-end VFR will move into KART Monday afternoon. Any heavier showers or thunderstorms could produce a brief period of IFR but confidence is low of reaching a TAF site.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers, especially for southern and eastern portions of the area. Improving later Wednesday.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.

MARINE
Southwesterly winds will increase following the passage of a warm front late tonight and into Monday. Winds and waves will likely stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria, although it will become choppy at times. Otherwise, winds and waves are expected to remain well below Small Craft conditions with just some light chop at times through at least Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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