Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 4:38 AM   Moonset 6:38 PM

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FXUS65 KBOI 062043 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 243 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday night...A cold front will move through the region this afternoon in southeast Oregon and later this evening in southwest Idaho. Sufficient instability with CAPE values around 200-400 J/kg, along with warmer air ahead of the cold front will allow for a low chance (<30% chance) of thunderstorms this afternoon. Heavy rain showers are more likely, with heavier snow squalls/graupel showers above about 4000-5000 feet today. Breezy winds will accompany the frontal passage, with brief gusts close to 30-40 kt this evening. Gusty winds will continue this afternoon in the Magic Valley, with Jerome and Gooding already seeing sustained winds surpass 30 mph for much of the afternoon, and gusts reaching 45 mph. Therefore, the wind advisory will be allowed to remain through the 6pm time frame. Afternoon winds will pick up again tomorrow afternoon in the Magic Valley as the low continues to push east, so another wind advisory has been issued for the Magic Valley tomorrow afternoon from noon-9pm MDT.
Scattered terrain driven showers will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday throughout the region. Snow accumulation is anticipated above about 5000 feet through Wednesday morning with elevations above 6000 feet seeing as much as 4-6 inches and lower elevations seeing anywhere from 0.5-2 inches.

Isolated rain and snow showers will continue in southwest Idaho as northwest flow aloft remains over our region through Wednesday, with widespread warming and drying beginning earlier in southeast Oregon. Breezy northwest winds will remain intact, especially over higher terrain in the Central ID mountains and the Magic Valley.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...An upper level ridge will begin to build into the region early on Thursday, beginning a warming and drying trend through the weekend. Highs will be about 10-15 degrees above normal, with about a 60-70% chance of the Treasure Valley exceeding 80F for Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Model agreement in clusters and deterministic forecast models is high through Monday morning, with some disagreement as we get into the latter part of the long term period. There is a low chance of precipitation on Monday afternoon, as some models show a weak shortwave trough moving through late Monday.

AVIATION
MVFR-IFR in showers this morning, becoming VFR. Snow level 4000-5000ft. Mountains obscured. MVFR-LIFR showers and thunderstorms form along a cold front this afternoon, around 22Z-00Z/Mon KBKE KBNO, reaching KONO KEUL KBOI 01-02Z/Tue and KTWF KJER around 04-05Z/Tue. Low visibility, graupel/heavy rain, and gusty W-NW winds up to 40 kt possible along front. Sfc winds: W-NW 10-20 kt, with gusts up to 40 kt near KTWF KJER.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 30-45 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Scattered showers in the vicinity of the terminal after 23Z/Mon. Brief MVFR to LIFR thunderstorms/heavy rain with NW gusts up to 45kt possible 02-03Z/Tue along front. Showers clearing after 09Z/Tues. Sfc winds: NW 8-12 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening IDZ016-030.
Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday IDZ016-030.
OR...None.

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