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FXUS65 KBOI 040254 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 854 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

DISCUSSION
Showers are ending and the skies are starting to clear across SE Oregon and SW Idaho this evening. The rainfall earlier today moistened up the lower levels, and combined with clearing skies, light winds, and cooling temps, patchy fog is expected in the valleys late tonight through Wednesday morning.
A northwest flow aloft will bring dry conditions and mostly clear skies on Wednesday as a high-amplitude ridge resides off the coast. Temperatures will be warmer, but still a few degrees below normal. No updates.

AVIATION
VFR with decreasing clouds this evening. Clearing skies will allow for patchy MVFR/IFR fog/stratus to form in the valleys after 06Z. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 06Z. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: Northwest 10-20 kt.

PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday night
Main forecast concern will be fog development tonight through Wednesday morning. Isolated showers will continue this afternoon across south- central Idaho. These showers will diminish by sunset as the shortwave exits the region. Skies will clear with light diurnal winds tonight. Recent rainfall has left plenty of moisture for fog/stratus development late this evening. The highest probability of fog is shown near Jerome, Burns and McCall. Stratus and fog also looks to develop along the foothills of the Boise Mountains. However, fog is possible across the Western Snake River Plain and sheltered mountains valleys Wednesday morning which could be an issue for the morning commute. A warming and drying trend begins on Wednesday through Thursday as a high amplitude ridge moves over the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This will return to normal by Thursday.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday
Upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest on Friday will move across the area on Saturday. The ridge will slowly move eastward but remain over the Northern Rockies placing the area under southwest flow through Monday for warm and dry conditions. Moisture begins to increase Monday afternoon as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. There is a 10-30% chance of showers mainly west and north Monday afternoon which spreads over the region late Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will warm up Friday through Sunday, reaching around 10 degrees above normal Sunday. Latest guidance is showing around 61% chance of temperatures reaching at least 80 degrees on Sunday in Boise.
Monday will be a few degrees cooler then a return to near- normal Tuesday due to increasing cloud cover and the previously- mentioned chance of showers with the trough passage.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
OR...None.

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