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FXUS63 KARX 021733 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages:

- Snow accumulations likely tonight and Sunday morning. Heaviest snow (1 to 2 inches) will be primarily south of an Oelwein IA to Neillsville, WI line. Elsewhere snow totals will range from a trace to an inch.

- It continues to look like the next chance of precipitation will be on Monday night. Due to this raised the precipitation chance for this time period.

Tonight and Sunday morning:

The 02.00z models are in general agreement that light precipitation will fall across the area from tonight into Sunday morning. Soundings south of Interstate 90 show that some dry air initially this evening might result in a brief period of rain at the onset of the precipitation and then it quickly changes over to snow. The highest probabilities of a tenth of an inch or greater of QPF (30 to 60% probabilities) is southeast an Oelwein, IA to Neillsville, WI line. In addition, snow to liquid ratios will be likely enhanced up to 15 to 1 at times between midnight and 6 AM due to a 100 to 150 mb dendritic growth zone. This will likely result produce a 1 to 2 inch snow band. Elsewhere snow totals will likely range from a dusting to 1 inch.

Monday Night and Tuesday morning:

The models continue to show that an Alberta Clipper will move southeast through the area on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Since there has been a consistent signal for the past 3 nights, used the CONSShort to raise the precipitation chances. This raised snow chances into the 20 to 40% chance west of the Mississippi River and 40 to 60% for the remainder of the area. As far as QPF, the precipitation continues to be on the light side. The probabilities of 0.05 inches or greater ranges from 5 to 15% west of the Mississippi River and 20 to 40% for the remainder of the area.

Wednesday Night into Thursday Night:

The models continue to show that the 500 mb ridge will flatten out some. This will allow a shortwave trough to move across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Like the past couple of days, it looks like this system will remain north of the area, so kept much of the area dry. However, did add a small precipitation chance (15-20%) north of Interstate 94. If precipitation does occur, it looks to be light. The probabilities of 0.05 inches or greater is only up to 15%.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Main taf concerns through the taf period will be lowering of ceilings into the MVFR/IFR conditions this afternoon into Sunday.
Low pressure moving into the Great Lakes Region tonight into Sunday will spread low stratus deck northward into the region this afternoon. Ceilings will lower into the MVFR initially this afternoon. Then lower into IFR at both RST/LSE tafs tonight and continue into the rest of the taf period. Light snow will overspread the region this evening and continue into Sunday. RST taf site will be on the northwest periphery of the light snow. At this time...not expected any visibility reduction due to snow at RST taf site. LSE will be on the northern fringe of the light snow and visibility could lower into IFR after 06z Sunday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

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