Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yuba, WI
November 30, 2023 5:07 PM CST (23:07 UTC)
Sunrise 7:16AM Sunset 4:31PM Moonrise 7:10PM Moonset 10:42AM
Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 302012 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 210 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
DISCUSSION
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Key Messages:
- Lower end precipitation chances (20-50%) through the weekend...mostly snow and generally confined to parts of northeast IA into central WI. Minor (under 1") accumulations favored.
- Light snow chances (20-30%) Mon night-Tue, warming by mid week (mid 40s to around 50 for highs).
* PCPN FRI/FRI NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH - locally still some lower end chances for parts of NE IA/southwest WI.
Upper level shortwave trough on track to lift northeast out of the desert southwest today, spinning across the mid mississippi river valley Fri morning and then over the eastern great lakes by Fri evening. Short term guidance has continued to inch the system south, keeping the bulk of the related pcpn/qpf south/east of the local forecast area. There could be a glancing blow for parts of NE IA/southwest WI, but chances still on the low end (20-30%). Coupled upper level jet, QG convergence and decent mid level Fgen band expected with the shortwave, and CAMS models paint a narrow band of pcpn on the northward side of the system. Depending on how far north, it could fall as snow. Latest HRRR paints a 60-80% chance for 1" or more or snow, 50-60% for more than 2". So while the system looks to hold southward, just a slight shift north could bring an inch or two of the white stuff to far southern locations. Bears watching.
Right on the heals of this shortwave is another bit of energy ejecting out of the southwesterly flow a loft, taking a similar track (moving in Fri night). Not as perky as the first shortwave, but has enough going for it to produce its own pcpn band, running along nearly the same line. QPF is much less, but timing/temps favor snow. Some suggestions in the models that saturation will start to shallow out as this ripple moves through, which could remove ice from cloud and trend toward freezing drizzle. A lot of "ifs" here...if there is still forcing, if the saturated layer shallows, etc. Not discarding out of hand, but won't add freezing mention to the forecast at this time.
* SAT NIGHT/SUN PCPN CHANCES - southern stream shortwave taking a line much like Friday's, but looking a bit more north with more widespread rain/snow chances (but only minor QPF).
Yet another spinner in the upper atmosphere is slated to lift out of the desert southwest northeast. This wave takes a similar path but with a slight shift northward. Decent QG convergence a loft, but deeper south of the local area and not much for Fgen. QPF is limited. Temps/timing would keep ptype snow with the ensemble mean only painting a 20-40$ shot for 1" or greater...mostly for southwest into central WI.
* NEW WORK WEEK - pcpn chances Mon-Tue (low QPF), trending warmer by the middle part of the week.
GEFS and EPS leaning into dropping a shortwave trough out of Canada to across the upper Mississippi river valley Monday night, with the potential to linger an associated sfc trough across the region Tue.
Bulk of the both ensembles' members bring mostly light QPF to the region, although with placement differences. Amounts look meager right now with GEFS and EPS only pushing a 20-30% chance for more than 0.01"...with nary a chance for 1" or more of snow. All in all, some snow chances but not shaping up to be much at this time.
Long range guidance continues to trend toward upper level ridge building as we move into the middle part of the new week. Some differences in how amplified the ridge could/will be, with the GFS suggesting something a bit stronger than the EC. Overall, cluster analysis slightly favors a somewhat flatter ridge - but only be a small margin - not "enough" to warrant a full buy-in. Still, temps look to be on the rise at least for a few days. Grand ensemble in the long range guidance pushes a 20-40% shot for 45+ highs Wed-Fri with the warmer GEFS suggesting those chances would be 10-20% higher. Setup looking pretty good for some mid/upper 40 highs (perhaps lower 50s for some).
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
VFR conditions are expected for most of the region with an incoming disturbance from the southwest increasing cloud cover throughout the TAF period. The 30.12z HRRR brings in some higher probabilities (60- 90% chance) for MVFR ceilings near the WI/IL border region Friday afternoon, but these are not expected to reach either TAF site.
Mostly expecting cloud cover to increase overnight with bkn high clouds at both TAF sites. Winds will remain between 5-10 kts through the forecast period with winds changing direction from NW to NE overnight.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 210 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
DISCUSSION
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Key Messages:
- Lower end precipitation chances (20-50%) through the weekend...mostly snow and generally confined to parts of northeast IA into central WI. Minor (under 1") accumulations favored.
- Light snow chances (20-30%) Mon night-Tue, warming by mid week (mid 40s to around 50 for highs).
* PCPN FRI/FRI NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTH - locally still some lower end chances for parts of NE IA/southwest WI.
Upper level shortwave trough on track to lift northeast out of the desert southwest today, spinning across the mid mississippi river valley Fri morning and then over the eastern great lakes by Fri evening. Short term guidance has continued to inch the system south, keeping the bulk of the related pcpn/qpf south/east of the local forecast area. There could be a glancing blow for parts of NE IA/southwest WI, but chances still on the low end (20-30%). Coupled upper level jet, QG convergence and decent mid level Fgen band expected with the shortwave, and CAMS models paint a narrow band of pcpn on the northward side of the system. Depending on how far north, it could fall as snow. Latest HRRR paints a 60-80% chance for 1" or more or snow, 50-60% for more than 2". So while the system looks to hold southward, just a slight shift north could bring an inch or two of the white stuff to far southern locations. Bears watching.
Right on the heals of this shortwave is another bit of energy ejecting out of the southwesterly flow a loft, taking a similar track (moving in Fri night). Not as perky as the first shortwave, but has enough going for it to produce its own pcpn band, running along nearly the same line. QPF is much less, but timing/temps favor snow. Some suggestions in the models that saturation will start to shallow out as this ripple moves through, which could remove ice from cloud and trend toward freezing drizzle. A lot of "ifs" here...if there is still forcing, if the saturated layer shallows, etc. Not discarding out of hand, but won't add freezing mention to the forecast at this time.
* SAT NIGHT/SUN PCPN CHANCES - southern stream shortwave taking a line much like Friday's, but looking a bit more north with more widespread rain/snow chances (but only minor QPF).
Yet another spinner in the upper atmosphere is slated to lift out of the desert southwest northeast. This wave takes a similar path but with a slight shift northward. Decent QG convergence a loft, but deeper south of the local area and not much for Fgen. QPF is limited. Temps/timing would keep ptype snow with the ensemble mean only painting a 20-40$ shot for 1" or greater...mostly for southwest into central WI.
* NEW WORK WEEK - pcpn chances Mon-Tue (low QPF), trending warmer by the middle part of the week.
GEFS and EPS leaning into dropping a shortwave trough out of Canada to across the upper Mississippi river valley Monday night, with the potential to linger an associated sfc trough across the region Tue.
Bulk of the both ensembles' members bring mostly light QPF to the region, although with placement differences. Amounts look meager right now with GEFS and EPS only pushing a 20-30% chance for more than 0.01"...with nary a chance for 1" or more of snow. All in all, some snow chances but not shaping up to be much at this time.
Long range guidance continues to trend toward upper level ridge building as we move into the middle part of the new week. Some differences in how amplified the ridge could/will be, with the GFS suggesting something a bit stronger than the EC. Overall, cluster analysis slightly favors a somewhat flatter ridge - but only be a small margin - not "enough" to warrant a full buy-in. Still, temps look to be on the rise at least for a few days. Grand ensemble in the long range guidance pushes a 20-40% shot for 45+ highs Wed-Fri with the warmer GEFS suggesting those chances would be 10-20% higher. Setup looking pretty good for some mid/upper 40 highs (perhaps lower 50s for some).
AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
VFR conditions are expected for most of the region with an incoming disturbance from the southwest increasing cloud cover throughout the TAF period. The 30.12z HRRR brings in some higher probabilities (60- 90% chance) for MVFR ceilings near the WI/IL border region Friday afternoon, but these are not expected to reach either TAF site.
Mostly expecting cloud cover to increase overnight with bkn high clouds at both TAF sites. Winds will remain between 5-10 kts through the forecast period with winds changing direction from NW to NE overnight.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
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La Crosse, WI,
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