Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Enfield, NH
December 10, 2023 1:01 PM EST (18:01 UTC)
Sunrise 7:06AM Sunset 4:11PM Moonrise 5:40AM Moonset 3:21PM
Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 101602 AAA AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1102 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Moisture begins increasing today as a significant storm approaches passing through the area tonight through Monday.
This storm will bring the potential for damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and snow across the north. Upslope snow showers linger into midweek before high pressure brings quieter conditions for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update...Fairly routine adjustment to temps and dewpoints in the cold air damming. Otherwise I have expanded and continued the dense fog into the afternoon hours and extended the dense fog advisory.
Previously...
The latest RAP pressure analysis this morning shows high pressure now well offshore with a cold front to our west over NY state. Satellite imagery shows a plethora of stratus over the region and ASOS visibility observations indicate that widespread fog has developed, some of which is locally dense.
The latest HRRR suggests that dense fog will become more common through the remainder of the morning and therefore will continue to monitor trends for the possible need of a dense fog advisory. If traveling early this morning across the interior please use extra caution as locally slick spots are possible across locations that received freezing drizzle last night.
The aforementioned front will approach the area today as low pressure forms near the Mid-Atlantic states. This will result in rain to develop from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be a large temperature gradient across the area with lower to middle 50s along the coast and perhaps even upper 50s in southern NH. Further north and across the interior foothills the CAD will hold strong, keeping temperatures only into the upper 30s and lower 40s. This CAD will also limit wind potential from the increasingly strong southerly LLJ. Patchy to areas of fog are likely to persist at times through the day as well.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Low pressure will ride along the stalled frontal boundary and move across the area tonight into Monday while undergoing cyclogenesis as the 500mb trough axis becomes negatively tilted.
Below is a breakdown of the expected hazards that this winter system will bring.
Rain/Flooding: The combination of increased forcing and PWATs soaring to around +5 standard deviations will result in increased rainfall rates with an increasing hydro threat tonight into Monday. For more information on this please see the hydrology section below. Still expecting between generally 2-4" of rain with localized higher amounts possible. The flood watch remains in effect for the area but did go ahead and cancel it for northern Grafton as more snow is now expected there.
Wind: Latest guidance indicates that the core of the 925 mb 80-90 kt LLJ will likely just skirt our coastline before moving onshore of Downeast ME. Forecast soundings still show a steep sfc inversion lingering tonight through early Monday morning, thus keeping the vast majority of the winds aloft. Along the coast this inversion is not expected to linger as long and therefore wind gusts of between 45-50 mph are expected with gusts up to around 60 mph towards coastal Waldo and Knox counties. Therefore, went ahead and issued a high wind warning for these 2 zones and a wind advisory along the remainder of the coast.
Snow: Model consensus continues to grow that strong dynamic cooling of the column will occur on the backside of this system as strong FGEN forcing moves in aloft. This will allow for rain to transition to heavy wet snow after midnight tonight and persist through much of Monday across northern NH, towards the Canadian Border in western ME, and perhaps even further south along the CT River Valley. The latest WPC snowband probability tracker (SPT) indicates the potential for snowfall rates of between 1-2"/hr across these areas late tonight through Monday, which will result in dangerous travel conditions. The snow will also be heavy and wet as the columns becomes isothermal and therefore power outages are possible. A winter storm warning has been issued for Northern Coos with an advisory for southern Coos and northern Grafton. Should guidance trend colder then this may need to be expanded.
Coastal Flooding: The threat for coastal flooding remains low but pockets of minor coastal flooding/splash-over is still possible, especially near high tide.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Models continue to indicate mostly mobile troughs at 500 mb across NOAM and environs through the week and into next weekend.
There may be some amplification of a trough mid week, but this is followed by a mildly amplified ridge late in the week into the weekend. All in all, temps run near to a little below normal Tue-Thu, and then trend above normal Fri into next weekend. Will see a round of mountain SHSN Wed, and then again possible next weekend, but no storms or even moderate precip producers are expected.
Seasonable temps move in for Tue-Wed, with a break in the mountain SHSN Tue and Tue night, but they return on Wed as a cold front approaches from the W. Highs both days range from around 30 in the mtns to around 40 in the S. Colder air moves in Thu, with upslope SHSN likely. Some weaker ridging ridging moves in for Friday and Sat, but source of air is from the Pacific, so temps warm into the mid 30s N to mid 40s S. A weak system may move in for next Sunday with some precip possible, but this low confidence this far out.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...IFR/LIFR restrictions will persist through this morning as low ceilings and FG linger. RA moves in from W-E this afternoon and continues through much of Monday. Periods of +RA are possible and widespread fog is likely with IFR/LIFR restrictions persisting. Southerly winds will gradually increase tonight before peaking on Monday. Gusts up to 40 kts are possible at KPSM and KPWM with 50 kt possible at KRKD. Southerly winds will become westerly on Monday behind a cold front with widespread gusts to around 30 kts. RA will transition to RASN overnight tonight before becoming mainly SN on Monday at KHIE with IFR restrictions likely. LLWS can be expected today as well as a warm front lifts northward.
Long Term... Quick improvement to VFR Monday evening at all but KHIE/KLEB, which will likely be MVFR, with KHIE dropping to IFR at times in SHSN. Winds also diminish Monday evening. All terminals should see VFR by midday Tue, although KHIE could drop again late Tue night or Wed as another cold front approaches.
VFR expected again by Thu at all terminals
MARINE
Short Term...Low pressure will ride along a stalled frontal boundary tonight into Monday, bringing storm force winds and seas of 15-20 ft across the outer waters with 4-8 ft in the bays. Gales are expected in Casco Bay.
Long Term...Winds/seas likely to drop below SCA by Tue morning, but sub-SCA conds will be short lived as SW flow increases ahead of a cold front Tue night into Wed, with NW winds likely to continue at SCA levels into Thu.
HYDROLOGY
Flood watch remains in effect for tonight through Monday evening, with continued river rises thereafter. The warm temperatures and more notably dewpoints above freezing south of the mountains will combine with blustery/strong winds to decimate the snowpack from the foothills southward. The accompanying heavy rainfall will combine with snowmelt to cause rapid rises on area streams and rivers. Contrarily, the snow in the higher terrain is cold and dry, which supports less snowmelt. The headwaters are still likely to experience flooding just from the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall even with less snowmelt. The rainfall efficiency will be anomalous for this time of year, with the potential for an inch to fall in 6 hours early Monday. The ground conditions are in a variable state of frozen/partially frozen/and near- saturated, which in essence means there will be limited percolation and more rapid runoff.
Concerns are present for overland flash flooding during this period, which will also support rapid flooding of small streams and rivers. The mainstem rivers will swell with flooding likely into Tuesday for some forecast points. Attention will be focused on where the axis of heaviest rainfall and interior penetration of the warm dewpoints materialize.
HYDROLOGY
Flood watch remains in effect for tonight through Monday evening, with continued river rises thereafter. The warm temperatures and more notably dewpoints above freezing south of the mountains will combine with blustery/strong winds to decimate the snowpack from the foothills southward. The accompanying heavy rainfall will combine with snowmelt to cause rapid rises on area streams and rivers. Contrarily, the snow in the higher terrain is cold and dry, which supports less snowmelt. The headwaters are still likely to experience flooding just from the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall even with less snowmelt. The rainfall efficiency will be anomalous for this time of year, with the potential for an inch to fall in 6 hours early Monday. The ground conditions are in a variable state of frozen/partially frozen/and near- saturated, which in essence means there will be limited percolation and more rapid runoff.
Concerns are present for overland flash flooding during this period, which will also support rapid flooding of small streams and rivers. The mainstem rivers will swell with flooding likely into Tuesday for some forecast points. Attention will be focused on where the axis of heaviest rainfall and interior penetration of the warm dewpoints materialize.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch from 3 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ022>026.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ027-028.
NH...Flood Watch from 3 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for NHZ004>015.
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ006- 009-010.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ014.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ002-003.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ150>152-154.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ153.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1102 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Moisture begins increasing today as a significant storm approaches passing through the area tonight through Monday.
This storm will bring the potential for damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and snow across the north. Upslope snow showers linger into midweek before high pressure brings quieter conditions for the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update...Fairly routine adjustment to temps and dewpoints in the cold air damming. Otherwise I have expanded and continued the dense fog into the afternoon hours and extended the dense fog advisory.
Previously...
The latest RAP pressure analysis this morning shows high pressure now well offshore with a cold front to our west over NY state. Satellite imagery shows a plethora of stratus over the region and ASOS visibility observations indicate that widespread fog has developed, some of which is locally dense.
The latest HRRR suggests that dense fog will become more common through the remainder of the morning and therefore will continue to monitor trends for the possible need of a dense fog advisory. If traveling early this morning across the interior please use extra caution as locally slick spots are possible across locations that received freezing drizzle last night.
The aforementioned front will approach the area today as low pressure forms near the Mid-Atlantic states. This will result in rain to develop from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours. There will be a large temperature gradient across the area with lower to middle 50s along the coast and perhaps even upper 50s in southern NH. Further north and across the interior foothills the CAD will hold strong, keeping temperatures only into the upper 30s and lower 40s. This CAD will also limit wind potential from the increasingly strong southerly LLJ. Patchy to areas of fog are likely to persist at times through the day as well.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Low pressure will ride along the stalled frontal boundary and move across the area tonight into Monday while undergoing cyclogenesis as the 500mb trough axis becomes negatively tilted.
Below is a breakdown of the expected hazards that this winter system will bring.
Rain/Flooding: The combination of increased forcing and PWATs soaring to around +5 standard deviations will result in increased rainfall rates with an increasing hydro threat tonight into Monday. For more information on this please see the hydrology section below. Still expecting between generally 2-4" of rain with localized higher amounts possible. The flood watch remains in effect for the area but did go ahead and cancel it for northern Grafton as more snow is now expected there.
Wind: Latest guidance indicates that the core of the 925 mb 80-90 kt LLJ will likely just skirt our coastline before moving onshore of Downeast ME. Forecast soundings still show a steep sfc inversion lingering tonight through early Monday morning, thus keeping the vast majority of the winds aloft. Along the coast this inversion is not expected to linger as long and therefore wind gusts of between 45-50 mph are expected with gusts up to around 60 mph towards coastal Waldo and Knox counties. Therefore, went ahead and issued a high wind warning for these 2 zones and a wind advisory along the remainder of the coast.
Snow: Model consensus continues to grow that strong dynamic cooling of the column will occur on the backside of this system as strong FGEN forcing moves in aloft. This will allow for rain to transition to heavy wet snow after midnight tonight and persist through much of Monday across northern NH, towards the Canadian Border in western ME, and perhaps even further south along the CT River Valley. The latest WPC snowband probability tracker (SPT) indicates the potential for snowfall rates of between 1-2"/hr across these areas late tonight through Monday, which will result in dangerous travel conditions. The snow will also be heavy and wet as the columns becomes isothermal and therefore power outages are possible. A winter storm warning has been issued for Northern Coos with an advisory for southern Coos and northern Grafton. Should guidance trend colder then this may need to be expanded.
Coastal Flooding: The threat for coastal flooding remains low but pockets of minor coastal flooding/splash-over is still possible, especially near high tide.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Models continue to indicate mostly mobile troughs at 500 mb across NOAM and environs through the week and into next weekend.
There may be some amplification of a trough mid week, but this is followed by a mildly amplified ridge late in the week into the weekend. All in all, temps run near to a little below normal Tue-Thu, and then trend above normal Fri into next weekend. Will see a round of mountain SHSN Wed, and then again possible next weekend, but no storms or even moderate precip producers are expected.
Seasonable temps move in for Tue-Wed, with a break in the mountain SHSN Tue and Tue night, but they return on Wed as a cold front approaches from the W. Highs both days range from around 30 in the mtns to around 40 in the S. Colder air moves in Thu, with upslope SHSN likely. Some weaker ridging ridging moves in for Friday and Sat, but source of air is from the Pacific, so temps warm into the mid 30s N to mid 40s S. A weak system may move in for next Sunday with some precip possible, but this low confidence this far out.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...IFR/LIFR restrictions will persist through this morning as low ceilings and FG linger. RA moves in from W-E this afternoon and continues through much of Monday. Periods of +RA are possible and widespread fog is likely with IFR/LIFR restrictions persisting. Southerly winds will gradually increase tonight before peaking on Monday. Gusts up to 40 kts are possible at KPSM and KPWM with 50 kt possible at KRKD. Southerly winds will become westerly on Monday behind a cold front with widespread gusts to around 30 kts. RA will transition to RASN overnight tonight before becoming mainly SN on Monday at KHIE with IFR restrictions likely. LLWS can be expected today as well as a warm front lifts northward.
Long Term... Quick improvement to VFR Monday evening at all but KHIE/KLEB, which will likely be MVFR, with KHIE dropping to IFR at times in SHSN. Winds also diminish Monday evening. All terminals should see VFR by midday Tue, although KHIE could drop again late Tue night or Wed as another cold front approaches.
VFR expected again by Thu at all terminals
MARINE
Short Term...Low pressure will ride along a stalled frontal boundary tonight into Monday, bringing storm force winds and seas of 15-20 ft across the outer waters with 4-8 ft in the bays. Gales are expected in Casco Bay.
Long Term...Winds/seas likely to drop below SCA by Tue morning, but sub-SCA conds will be short lived as SW flow increases ahead of a cold front Tue night into Wed, with NW winds likely to continue at SCA levels into Thu.
HYDROLOGY
Flood watch remains in effect for tonight through Monday evening, with continued river rises thereafter. The warm temperatures and more notably dewpoints above freezing south of the mountains will combine with blustery/strong winds to decimate the snowpack from the foothills southward. The accompanying heavy rainfall will combine with snowmelt to cause rapid rises on area streams and rivers. Contrarily, the snow in the higher terrain is cold and dry, which supports less snowmelt. The headwaters are still likely to experience flooding just from the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall even with less snowmelt. The rainfall efficiency will be anomalous for this time of year, with the potential for an inch to fall in 6 hours early Monday. The ground conditions are in a variable state of frozen/partially frozen/and near- saturated, which in essence means there will be limited percolation and more rapid runoff.
Concerns are present for overland flash flooding during this period, which will also support rapid flooding of small streams and rivers. The mainstem rivers will swell with flooding likely into Tuesday for some forecast points. Attention will be focused on where the axis of heaviest rainfall and interior penetration of the warm dewpoints materialize.
HYDROLOGY
Flood watch remains in effect for tonight through Monday evening, with continued river rises thereafter. The warm temperatures and more notably dewpoints above freezing south of the mountains will combine with blustery/strong winds to decimate the snowpack from the foothills southward. The accompanying heavy rainfall will combine with snowmelt to cause rapid rises on area streams and rivers. Contrarily, the snow in the higher terrain is cold and dry, which supports less snowmelt. The headwaters are still likely to experience flooding just from the 1 to 3 inches of rainfall even with less snowmelt. The rainfall efficiency will be anomalous for this time of year, with the potential for an inch to fall in 6 hours early Monday. The ground conditions are in a variable state of frozen/partially frozen/and near- saturated, which in essence means there will be limited percolation and more rapid runoff.
Concerns are present for overland flash flooding during this period, which will also support rapid flooding of small streams and rivers. The mainstem rivers will swell with flooding likely into Tuesday for some forecast points. Attention will be focused on where the axis of heaviest rainfall and interior penetration of the warm dewpoints materialize.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch from 3 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ012>014-018>028-033.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ022>026.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ027-028.
NH...Flood Watch from 3 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for NHZ004>015.
Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ006- 009-010.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ014.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for NHZ002-003.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ150>152-154.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ153.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLEB LEBANON MUNI,NH | 8 sm | 35 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 48°F | 43°F | 81% | 29.86 | |
Wind History from LEB
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire
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Salmon Falls River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:14 AM EST 0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:04 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST 7.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:16 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:07 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 04:53 PM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:47 PM EST 6.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:14 AM EST 0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:33 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 07:04 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST 7.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:16 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:07 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 04:53 PM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:47 PM EST 6.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.1 |
| 1 am |
| 3.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 3.6 |
| 8 am |
| 5.2 |
| 9 am |
| 6.5 |
| 10 am |
| 7.1 |
| 11 am |
| 6.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 6 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 3 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 2 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.3 |
Squamscott River RR. Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:33 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 05:02 AM EST 0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 10:56 AM EST 7.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:17 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:31 PM EST 6.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:33 AM EST Moonrise
Sun -- 05:02 AM EST 0.91 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 10:56 AM EST 7.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:17 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:08 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST 0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:31 PM EST 6.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Squamscott River RR. Bridge, New Hampshire, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 5.8 |
| 1 am |
| 4.8 |
| 2 am |
| 3.5 |
| 3 am |
| 2.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 2.4 |
| 8 am |
| 4 |
| 9 am |
| 5.6 |
| 10 am |
| 6.7 |
| 11 am |
| 7.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 6.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 5.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.2 |
Portland, ME,
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