Sandy Creek, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sandy Creek, NY

June 15, 2024 5:51 AM EDT (09:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM
Moonrise 1:30 PM   Moonset 12:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1030 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Overnight - North winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandy Creek, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 150800 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 400 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure moving in from the upper Great Lakes will supply us with fantastic weather for the weekend. Oppressive heat and humidity will then DOMINATE our weather next week with dangerously high apparent temperatures, peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure building into the region will bring mainly sunny skies today. Temperatures will be on the cooler side of normal with most highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Mainly clear skies tonight along with light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will bring fair weather Sunday to our region. Low PWATS and southeast flow will keep dewpoints on the comfortable side, with dewpoints around 50 through the day.

A shortwave cresting a mid level ridge will bring potential for a few showers to Lake Ontario and points eastward late Sunday night, with activity ending east of Lake Ontario early Monday with the passing of the shortwave aloft.

Monday the surface pressure gradient will increase with the passing of the shortwave aloft, with a bit of a southerly breeze in the 20 mph range. While not a great magnitude, this southerly flow behind the departed surface high will increase moisture advection through the day.

Monday will have a noticeable increase in moisture, with dewpoints rising into the 60s, some 15 to 20 degrees warmer than Sunday. This combined with surface temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90F will bring apparent temperatures in the afternoon into the mid 90s.

The increase in temperature and moisture will create plenty of low level instability. However aloft a 700/500 hPa ridge axis will be increasing through the day, likely to prevent most if not all towering cumulus from becoming full thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dangerous Heat Wave To Impact The Region Next Week

A very strong 500mb ridge will anchor itself across much of the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through much of the week, which will dominate the sensible weather across the eastern Great Lakes.
NAEFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate this ridge will be of anomalous strength with 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures in the 99th percentile, if not exceeding the maximum climatological values for the Northeast through Thursday. Deep anticyclonic flow around the resultant Bermuda High will cause hot, humid air to surge across the eastern CONUS. Given the strong signal from nearly all available long range guidance packages, confidence is high in a prolonged stretch of oppressive summer heat and humidity lasting through much of the week.

Not much change to previous forecast packages with daytime highs solidly in 90s Tuesday through Thursday. Highest temps will be in the interior valleys, while cooler temps will be found immediately along the lakeshores and immediately northeast of both lakes (including Downtown Buffalo) as a persistent southwest flow advects cooler marine air off the lakes. Have leaned more towards the ECMWF, Canadian and ICON models for temperatures as the GEFS/GFS seems to have too much convection/clouds given the strength of the 500 hPa ridge.

Tuesday and Wednesday still seem like the peak days of excessive heat and humidity with low 100s possible in interior valleys. This heat comes as dewpoints climb into the low 70s, which will cause overall heat indicies in the afternoon to climb into the mid 90s to lower 100s.

An upper level trough over south-central Canada will move east through the end of the week. The approaching trough will begin to suppress the strong ridge over the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night. Based on the NAEFS, 850mb temperatures will begin to fall into the upper teens Thursday through Friday, HOWEVER this may only result in a few degrees difference from Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing the heat wave across the forecast area. For context, daytime highs average the upper 70s for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown during the days of June 18-21. Record high temperatures and record warm minimum temperatures are possible this period, and the climate section below lists such records for Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown.

Little relief is expected overnight with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s within a muggy airmass.

Otherwise...The primary forecast uncertainty through much of next week continues to be the potential for convection. Daytime surface based instability will greatly be present each afternoon with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s although the strong ridge should preclude much of the diurnal convective potential with strong capping expected to be in place for Tuesday and Wednesday. A shortwave driving through this ridge Thursday could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm Thursday or slightly better, on Friday.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will build overhead through tonight, providing dry weather with VFR flight conditions and light winds through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

MARINE
Conditions will remain below headline criteria through the weekend, although there may be a few periods with some light to moderate chop, especially on eastern Lake Ontario this morning, then western Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon.

CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45215 20 mi85 min 63°F 64°F1 ft
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 20 mi51 minS 1.9G2.9 60°F 29.9954°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 36 mi51 minN 14G16 60°F 62°F1 ft30.04
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 49 mi51 min 65°F30.04


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY 23 sm57 mincalm10 smPartly Cloudy55°F54°F94%30.02
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Wind History graph: FZY
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Montague, NY,




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