Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Essexville, MI

AVIATION

Winds will veer to the north and northeast this evening into tonight as high pressure builds across the area. Gusty winds at the beginning of this TAF period will continue to decline into this evening as well. VFR skies are likely to prevail through this TAF period. Though, the northerly flow will usher in Lake Huron low clouds. Some uncertainty if any lower ceilings reach the TAF sites tomorrow morning, but current expectation is for any lower ceiling to hold east.

For DTW...Crosswind threshold concerns remain for a couple more hours as winds continue to wane into tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Medium to high for crosswind threshold early this evening. Low tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

DISCUSSION...

A last minute flare-up of scattered storms is ongoing along the cold front that are now exiting SE Mi at forecast issuance. That leaves the post frontal wind field for Wind Advisory consideration through 6 PM but which is also dropping off from earlier day peak gusts in the 50 mph range. The Wind Advisory is projected to expire on time at 6 PM as gusts drop below 40 mph and then continue downward through sunset.

While just marginally supportive of convection, the temperature gradient across the cold front is more impressive. After record to near record highs in the lower to mid 80s all areas, readings toward the Tri Cities are already dropping through the 60s with similar trends expected as the colder air spreads across the rest of SE Mi this evening. A reinforcing cold air surge then occurs late tonight with a more northerly wind shift that takes readings down through the 30s to near the freezing mark by sunrise Wednesday nearly everywhere outside of metro Detroit. Temperatures so close to freezing for several hours is the pro warranting a Frost Advisory over cons about wind speed, clouds, and warm ground. Lingering light northerly wind has potential to go calm under clear sky over inland areas. Clouds are more of a benefit on temperatures toward Lake Huron but with low confidence on coverage if Td drops into the 20s as shown in 12Z HRRR projections. April 30th sun intensity combines with dominant high pressure to quickly lift temperatures and dissipate low clouds during the morning. Highs in the lower to mid 60s are right around normal for the last day of April.

Today's cold front is still nearby to the south along the Ohio valley by Wednesday night as the current 4 Corners low pressure system moves out into the Plains. This progression initially just increases clouds across Lower Mi until mid level moisture transport accelerates after midnight. Given the strength of the front today, it's not surprising model agreement is good on a sharp 850-700 mb theta-e gradient returning back northward as SW flow increases toward 40 kts in the layer. Showers blossom as a result and guidance POPs look good trending categorical late Wednesday night the lasting through Thursday.

MARINE...

Strong low pressure system north of Georgian Bay is tracking into Quebec this afternoon while pulling a cold front down across the region. The cold front should be through the area by early this evening which will end the thunderstorm chances. The elevated winds due to the tight gradient will hold for several hours in the wake of the front but will be decrease fairly quickly around nightfall.
Current observations over Lake Superior support the current forecast with the tight gradient behind the low still producing gales but the west half of the lake is already down to peaking at 25 knots. So wind concerns for a few more hours. High pressure builds in tonight through Wednesday with wind becoming light and variable. The next low is then set to arrive Thursday into Friday. The gradient is not very tight with this low and the cold advection is fairly weak behind it so winds look to hold below 25 knots at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ047>049- 053>055-060>063-068>070-075.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ361>363-421-422- 441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.