Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 6:43PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:04PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 400 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 8 to 12 feet in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 35 knot gales until early morning. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots until late afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
LHZ462 Expires:201910222000;;088250 FZUS63 KDTX 220809 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 400 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Strong low pressure system, deepening to 29.10 inches, will rotate into northwewest Ontario today today bringing southwest gales to Lake Huron. This low will gradually weaken to 29.30 inches and lift northward toward James Bay Wednesday. High pressure, averaging 30.20 inches, begins to build into the region late week bring lighter winds. LHZ462>464-222000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221138
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
738 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Aviation
Clear skies and relatively light winds prevail in the wake of last
night's cold front. These conditions will be short lived as upstream
obs indicate widespread clouds and gusty southwest winds poised to
fill in during the mid to late morning hours. Low lake enhancedVFR
stratocu then expected to be accompanied by SW winds gusting 25 to
30 kts during peak heating. Lake response will support increasing
rain shower coverage into the saginaw valley area where further
deterioration to MVFR will be possible this evening. Uncertainty
with respect to coverage warrants inclusion of vcsh for kfnt ptk
while toeing the line with the dry forecast in the immediate detroit
area. Clouds begin to erode from south to north late in the period
as the moisture axis lifts north.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet.

Prev discussion
Issued at 317 am edt Tue oct 22 2019
discussion...

regional reflectivity mosaic and msas analysis early this morning
shows the center of vertically stacked low pressure passing east of
the mississippi river into far western wisconsin. Satellite imagery
shows an expansive dry slot sliding over lake michigan and a greater
portion of lower michigan. An exception has been an extremely narrow
convective band of cumulus cloud, roughly 5 to 10 miles wide along
the cold front and abrupt wind shift. The wind shift has really been
a non-issue overnight with some evidence of winds in the 25 to 35
mph range immediately along the feature. Very interesting to note
in the model data that system relative isentropic descent is
virtually non-existent. Forecast soundings also support this with
little subsidence inversion development in the near term. As a
result, not much of a wind response during the remainder of the
morning in tow of the front. In fact, surface observations upstream
are showing nothing more than winds of 10 to 20 knots. Relatively
quiet and cloud free conditions this morning.

Internal PV structure of barotropic low pressure system will cause
the center of surface low pressure to wobble within and north of
lake superior today. This will place southeast michigan in
prevailing southwest flow today. Forecast soundings show rapid
development of surface mixed layer with advent of daytime heating.

Mixing heights greater than 3.0 kft agl will allow for environmental
winds of 30-35 knots to be mixed down to the surface. The going
forecast had this in hand and no changes were required for this
issuance. The precipitation forecast is not a trivial one as model
data is showing a lack of low to midlevel wrap-around moisture
making it back into lower michigan today. Despite a lack of synoptic
moisture, forecast soundings are showing diurnal based shower
potential with saturated conditions between 2.0 and 7.0 kft agl. No
question there will be lake effect component to the precipitation
primarily west of the cwa. Main support for ascent today will likely
come along behind lobe of PV that will pivot into central lower
michigan 18-00z. There is a signal that best boundary layer support
may occur along and behind a wind shift that will cause flow
trajectories to become more due westerly. This would open the door
for some of the lake effect activity to survive into the forecast
area. Did use a general outline of enhanced 925 -(div) and 1000-
850mb uvvs to include likely pops 21-03z north of I 69. The NAM is
bearish, but the hrrr runs suggest a potential for areas south of i
69. Included slight to low chance pops south of detroit.

Loss of daytime heating will allow for mixing depths to decrease
with time tonight. Additionally, modest increase in midlevel
subsidence will erode moisture depths from the top-down due to
increasing dry air entrainment. Did go dry the latter half of the
night. Continued mixed flow will keep low temperatures somewhat
buoyed.

For Wednesday, the question is what will high temperatures be with
some conflicting information in the guidance. NAM is cooler while
the ECMWF is definitely on the warmer side. The issue boils down to
the timing of the warm advection particularly in the afternoon in
advance of the frontal wave. ECMWF is quicker and more aggressive
with the warm advection. Light precipitation chances return
Wednesday night with right exit region dynamics and frontogenesis.

Fairly diffuse baroclinic zone, cold resident air mass, and
underwhelming absolute vorticity maximum suggests nothing more than
light amounts. Tendency for longwave troughing through the great
lakes ensures little warm up through the end of the week with a
below normal period through at least the first half of upcoming
weekend.

Marine...

the deep low responsible for yesterday's strong winds will slowly
lift into northwest ontario today. The gradient will once again ramp
up, this time from the southwest, as the cold side of the system
envelopes the central great lakes. Influx of cold air will sustain
well-mixed conditions over the water supportive of wind gusts to 40
kts, especially over the central axis of the lake including saginaw
bay. Fresh southwest flow will continue through Wednesday as high
pressure building over the ohio valley maintains an elevated
gradient.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning until midnight edt tonight for miz063-070.

Lake huron... Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for lhz362-363-421-422-
462>464.

Gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for lez444.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi24 min S 29 G 33 51°F 1000.3 hPa (-0.4)
45163 26 mi44 min S 19 G 23 53°F 52°F3 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi44 min SSE 26 G 32 52°F 1001 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi44 min S 16 G 24 51°F 1001 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi31 minS 10 G 1910.00 miFair49°F41°F74%1000.8 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi47 minS 13 G 2010.00 miFair50°F41°F71%1001 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi48 minS 710.00 miFair50°F40°F70%1000 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E9E12SE12SE13SE14SE22
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1 day agoSW4W5SW6SW4SW64W4--CalmN4CalmSE4NE7NE5NE6NE6NE5NE4NE7NE7E6NE7NE7E7
2 days agoS7S11S8S10S11S10SE7S8SE6E3CalmSE6S7S7SE7SE5SE4SE4SW3W3CalmCalmW3W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.