Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:20PM Monday July 6, 2020 3:39 AM EDT (07:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 6:14AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 942 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Rest of tonight..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon...then veering to the southeast late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the evening veering to the north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ462 Expires:202007060815;;384835 FZUS63 KDTX 060142 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure averaging 30.00 inches continues to remain over the Great Lakes resulting in favorable marine conditions through Monday. A weak cold front, 29.90 inches, moves across the central Great Lakes later Tuesday. LHZ462>464-060815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 060424 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1224 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

AVIATION.

Plume of increased moisture from the west will maintain some mid level cloudiness into the overnight with a hit/miss shower perhaps possible generally southwest of the southern terminals. Diurnal cumulus is expected again on Monday with better coverage possible given the slow influx of moisture into the area. Isolated showers will be more likely along lake breeze boundaries in the afternoon as well, but still very isolated in nature. Otherwise, winds will remain very light and initially southwesterly before lake breeze activity brings variable conditions by afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

DISCUSSION .

Persistent mid-summer weather will hold serve through the upcoming week. The westerlies remain pinned north of the border - keeping opportunities for organized synoptic-scale forcing hard to find. The shortwave trough emerging from the Canadian Rockies will pivot and sling eastward along the northern reaches of the CONUS Monday and into the northern Lakes region on Tuesday. This gentle height falls region will also be coincident with some slight mid-level cooling - allowing for a better chance at some tangible weather locally. A stout extension of the large scale ridge will then occupy space over the region Wednesday into Friday - bringing the hottest conditions via combination of temperature and ambient moisture.

Thus far, near surface moisture has stayed well in check - so despite daily climbs into the 90s-F, overnight retreats have been substantial (most locals at or below 60-F this morning). Dewpoints are expected to slowly ascend beginning Monday afternoon, and more so Tuesday. Heat indices will reside in the mid-upper 90s-F Tuesday and continue at least through Thursday, if not Friday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will begin having trouble dipping below 70-F starting Tuesday morning. It's at that point that heat headlines may need be raised as cumulative heat stress effects will become far more pronounced.

A ribbon of better boundary layer moisture and meaningful instability (MLCAPE > 1-kJ/kg) is resident over the western Lower Peninsula. A couple regions of agitated cumulus have spawned some shower activity - currently either tied to the Lake Michigan shadow zone or the bouncy gradient along the I-94 corridor. Most of the guidance suite indicates this tongue of enhanced instability will drift east across south-central Lower late this afternoon - and continue to possess the ability to initiate isolated convection. The boundary layer rooted activity may be able to survive into the far western reaches of the forecast area this evening.

The zone of enhanced instability is expected to maintain integrity overhead tonight - which will offer the opportunity for some nocturnal shower/storm development. The forcing will be via radiational cooling of the mid-level moist layer in combination with gentle system-relative isentropic ascent at the top of the entrainment zone around 308-K to act on the residual elevated diurnal mixed layer. Several CAMs are percolating some after midnight activity south of I-69. Coverage will be very limited and each updraft will likely be short-lived.

This instability axis will remain locked in place across southeast Michigan on Monday. Expect isolated shower/storm development through the afternoon hours. The congestus cloud field will likely develop along the big lake boundaries and the glacial terrain rise.

A better chance for scattered thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as the aforementioned shortwave trough zips through the northern Lakes region. Plenty of resident instability with MLCAPE values exceeding 1.5 kJ/kg. A few energetic updrafts may be able to produce a good puff of wind upon collapsing.

The next reliable chance for organized rainfall will occur at the end of the week. The extended guidance suite continue to offer a variety of outcomes regarding timing and intensity of the incoming system and attendant cold front. The GFS continues to be the most progressive - but that is a known behavior characteristic. Will continue to hedge in the direction of the ECMWF and EPS timing - which does bring the wave through during the peak diurnal period on Friday - therefore will have to monitor for severe potential as the week wears on.

MARINE .

High pressure continues to remain firmly over the Great Lakes today bringing warm temperatures, light wind, and favorable wave conditions to finish the weekend and start the early week period. Some isolated storms may be possible Monday afternoon/evening firing off lake breezes but will be confined to nearshore waters and areas inland. Otherwise, dry weather is expected to hold into early Tuesday before a weak front approaches northern Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . Mann MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi40 min SSE 6 G 7 77°F 1014.6 hPa (-0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi60 min E 1.9 G 2.9 76°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi60 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi47 minENE 410.00 miFair71°F50°F47%1015.2 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi45 minNE 310.00 miFair66°F53°F64%1015.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi45 minNNE 710.00 miFair65°F57°F78%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SW4W5W4W4CalmSW7SW8--CalmNW7NE5E5E5E8SE9SE5CalmCalmNE4
1 day agoN5N6N4N5N5NE6N6NE5NE9NE7N4N9E6NE9
G17
NE7N9E3CalmNE5N4CalmE3SE3E3
2 days agoNW6NW5NW4NW4NW5N7N3NW546----N94NE5NE14NE10NE10NE6NE5CalmN4N3N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.