Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:10PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:13 AM EDT (13:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:43PMMoonset 11:39AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 347 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon veering to the south. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LHZ462 Expires:201907232015;;496909 FZUS63 KDTX 230747 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 347 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...The central Great Lakes remain between a broad area of high pressure over the Plains at 30.10 inches and low pressure over Quebec at 29.90 inches. A smaller wave of low pressure pulls a reinforcing cold front across the region today that supports scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over land areas. The Plains high pressure system then builds eastward into the region Wednesday and drifts over Lake Huron and lower Michigan Thursday and Friday. The next cold front is projected to move in from central Canada Saturday into Sunday. LHZ462>464-232015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231107
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
707 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Aviation
The day starts out clear in light and cool NW surface wind before
high clouds increase toward noon. These clouds are the first sign of
the next front that brings scattered showers to SE michigan with an
isolated thunderstorm possible during the afternoon. Coverage is
expected to be enough to maintain a mention of MVFR in heavier
showers while conditions are monitored for thunderstorm potential.

Conditions are otherwiseVFR under high based cumulus ahead of the
front and altocu behind the front and after convection dissipates
tonight. A clearing trend follows after midnight with light north to
light and variable wind possibly leading to some shallow fog by
sunrise Wednesday.

For dtw... NW wind is just strong enough to consider NE traffic flow
configuration today. Clear sky during the morning is followed by
increasing high clouds and eventually high based cumulus during the
afternoon. Ceiling holds above 5000 ft except in showers late in the
day into early evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be
isolated.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms late afternoon and early evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 346 am edt Tue jul 23 2019
discussion...

clear skies prevail over southeast michigan with temperatures in the
50s to around 60 and light to variable winds. The hot spot, of
course, is 68 degrees on the water at port austin. This relatively
cool airmass characterized by h85 temperatures around 9c, slightly
cooler than yesterday's readings, will support deep boundary layer
growth to at least 700mb by this afternoon. Several hours of mixing
along the dry adiabat suggest nudging temps up a bit compared to
yesterday despite the colder nature of the column. Satellite
presentation of the arctic shortwave-of-interest racing southward
through northwest ontario is impressive this morning. Meanwhile, a
lead wave pivoting across the up and lake superior is supporting
some mid and high cloud along with a narrow band of poorly organized
high-based showers. While this lead wave is not expected to have any
direct impact on sensible wx locally, other than providing a partial
coverage of high clouds, satellite presentation has not matched the
model simulations particularly well and the hrrr has shown a
noteworthy trend that will be touched on in a moment.

Overall forecast reasoning for today is generally unchanged. Decent
dynamic forcing in the presence of a -15c to -18c h5 cold pool is
expected to support scattered deep, weak convection capable of
producing pea-sized hail and diabatically-driven wind gusts of 30 to
40 mph on a localized basis within any particularly strong updrafts.

Forecast remains qualitatively unchanged with high chc pops and
"scattered" wording still appropriate. The hrrr trend alluded to
above is an increasingly pronounced limit to the southward extent of
convection today. The fact that this characteristic of today's
convection was not evident in the 00z run but has become
increasingly apparent in the runs since then suggests that it may be
the result of the model catching up with the aforementioned poor
handling of the lead shortwave and subsequent minor adjustments to
the resident thermodynamic profile. Indeed, a plot of MLCAPE by the
parent rap model indicates instability never really manifests except
immediately along the wave itself. Rap hrrr forecast soundings
reveal the emergence of a stout 600mb cap. It's difficult to
determine whether this trend has a legitimate basis in reality, but
if the 06z NAM follows suit then that would likely be sufficient to
warrant a reduction in pops south of m-59 with an early morning
update. Better boundary layer decoupling tonight with high pressure
more entrenched over the cwa. Forecast soundings are highly stable
near the surface and are sufficiently conducive for fog development
to introduce patchy fog to the wx grids for tonight. Further
adjustments to fog expectations can be made when today's rainfall
coverage becomes more apparent.

The aggregate gulf of alaska low will continue to deamplify and open
during the remainder of the week. Energy released from this process
will act to continually dampen the longwave ridge anchored over the
western us and will consequently force the downstream transition
from northwest flow to something more zonal as the week wears on.

This naturally opens the door to slightly warmer mid-level air
advecting over the area helping to augment ongoing airmass
modification. Daytime highs will approach 90 in the urban heat
island as early as Friday, but the lack of any mechanism to build
ridging locally and the suppression of last week's humid airmass to
the gulf coast suggests temps will probably remain capped in the
neighborhood of 90f with dewpoints near typical values in the upper
50s to mid 60s for the rest of the week.

Marine...

a wave of low pressure and reinforcing cold front move across the
central great lakes today while a broad region of high pressure
lingers over the plains. These features combine to continue the flow
of cool air across lake huron and lower michigan while the front
brings scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over land
and nearshore areas. Lower wind speed and a direction more from the
northwest produce more favorable wave conditions today and tonight
compared to yesterday. This trend continues Wednesday as the plains
high pressure system builds into the central great lakes and drifts
slowly across the region Thursday and Friday. Dry weather holds
during this time until the next cold front arrives Saturday into
Sunday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi73 min NNW 16 G 18 64°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.7)
45163 26 mi53 min NNW 12 G 14 66°F 73°F1 ft
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 11 65°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi20 minWNW 710.00 miFair65°F54°F68%1017.4 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi17 minNNW 310.00 miFair64°F51°F64%1017.3 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi17 minNW 510.00 miFair64°F54°F72%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW116NE12NE76NE10NE11NE7NE6NE6NE3W5NW8NW9NW11NW9NW9NW6W7W6W4W5W7
1 day agoN3NE6NE5E7Calm5S5SE3NW5NE7N7N6N6N7NE8NE6E4N10N7NW7N6N8N6NW10
2 days agoW11W7W7SW16SW146N6NW26
G37
NE8SE8S10S10NW5NW10NW9W4SW6SW4W4W4W5CalmN9N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.