Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 9:56 AM EDT (13:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:07PMMoonset 6:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 354 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.gale watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then veering to the west 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late in the evening...then veering to the west after midnight. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south early in the evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots until early evening...then backing to the east in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers until afternoon...then showers likely until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ462 Expires:202004082015;;752549 FZUS63 KDTX 080754 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 29.80 inches, briefly expands across the region from the eastern Plains today before the next low pressure system arrives tonight. This system brings a much stronger cold front and the potential for northwest gales by Thursday. LHZ462>464-082015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 081128 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 728 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

AVIATION.

Moist low level conditions left in the wake of overnight rainfall will maintain some pockets of lower stratus and/or fog through mid morning. This moisture will subsequently clear as deeper mixing ensues late morning/early afternoon, leaving an extended period of VFR conditions into the evening hours. Moisture will increase downstream of an inbound cold front tonight. This saturation will occur first at mbS/FNT near sunset, before expanding southward overnight. This process will bring lower ceiling heights with an increasing potential for rain. A modest increase in northwest winds behind this front during the early morning hours, with some potential for gusts near 20 knots.

For DTW . Low stratus and fog will linger through mid morning, before lifting thereafter. Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft then expected into the evening. Modest northwest to west winds during the daylight period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet prior 14z.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

DISCUSSION .

Today will be the last day of the warm stretch of weather we've been experiencing for several days now. The split flow pattern briefly goes zonal today in the wake of last nights system with westerly flow preventing much in the way of moderation to the resident airmass. 850mb temps will once again hover around the mid single digits (C) today with a slight boost late in the afternoon with a slight backing to southwest flow ahead of cold front set to drop through the region tonight. After a good deal of stratus overnight due to cold advection, weak area of high pressure and deep boundary layer mixing should erode the cloud field and allow for afternoon sun. Highs will reach into the low to mid 60s.

Rain showers will return late this evening into tonight as a northern stream trough send a cold front down through the Great Lakes. A pretty strong surface low will track across central Ontario tied to the mid level vort max with the front draped down into the Mid MS Valley. Models hint as a second wave and vort max digging into the Ohio Valley to our west which will spin up a second surface low along the front which will progress south and east along the instability gradient. Little to no instability is present over southern MI as it was all washed southward with last nights activity thus will continue to leave out thunder mention.

Thursday will be a windy day as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the region in the wake of the strong cold front. Westerly cold advection will result in steep low level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing extending up to around 7kft per the NAM/GFS. Forecast soundings show a deep layer of winds in the 30 knot range through that layer. With the lack of a strong low level jet to try to mix into, it appears our gust potential will be capped in the 30- 40 mph range for the most part. The cold advection and steep lapse rates will also likely set off a period of afternoon showers. The added cloud cover will work against deeper mixing and gust potential, but at the same time should mention any more robust shower could bring a gust over 40 mph to the surface.

The front will mark the end of the warm stretch with broad troughing setting up through about Saturday. High pressure over the plains and the the low just to our east will set up northerly flow into the region with 850mb temps dropping into the negative single digits. Highs will be held in the 40s Thursday and Friday before slowly moderating Saturday and Sunday as the pattern shifts east allowing heights to rise.

MARINE .

High pressure briefly builds into the region from the Plains today before the next round of showers arrives later this evening ahead of a cold front. An area of low pressure moving across northern Ontario will pull this strong cold front through the eastern Lakes tonight. A tight gradient and cold advection may result in northwest gales Thursday into Friday. Below normal temperatures move in with harsh marine conditions expected until high pressure arrives to start the weekend on Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi56 min WNW 8 G 8.9 45°F 1005.4 hPa (+1.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi76 min WNW 8.9 G 11 43°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi76 min W 6 G 8 43°F 1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi63 minW 74.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze48°F33°F56%1006.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi61 minW 85.00 miFog/Mist48°F46°F94%1006.1 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi61 minW 510.00 miFair48°F45°F93%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3N5E8SE9SE8S12S6N7N6NE7N7
G29
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1 day agoSW7--SW4SW5S7--S6SW4CalmE4NE4SE3E5E7SE5S7S7S6S7S6S5S6S7S8
2 days agoNE6NE8N7NE33Calm3S3SE5SE5SE6S5S5SE3SE3Calm--E4SE4S3CalmCalmS4S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.