Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:13PM Thursday February 20, 2020 8:49 PM EST (01:49 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 3:14PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 341 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the morning...then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the evening.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast early in the evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of snow early in the morning. Rain likely. Snow likely until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
LHZ462 Expires:202002210915;;840891 FZUS63 KDTX 202041 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 341 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad strong high pressure system, averaging 30.80 inches, will continue its slow southeastward track across the Plains into the mid- Mississippi valley the remainder of this week. The central Great Lakes region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high during this time. A low, 29.10 inches, pivoting through the Hudson Bay Friday sets up a stronger gradient over the Great Lakes region. Long fetch with southwest flow creates the possibility of low-end gale-force gusts over Outer Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron warranting a Gale Watch Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. LHZ462>464-210915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 202318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 618 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

AVIATION.

Extended period of clear skies will exist this taf period, as conditions remain governed by a very dry environment. Prevailing west to northwest winds late this evening will veer to southwest by Friday morning. Some increase in southwest winds expected on Friday, with diurnal mixing leading to gusty conditions for the afternoon period. Gusts 20 to 25 knots peaking mid-late afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 336 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

Prototypical late winter anticyclone setup across Southeast Michigan today with deep column static stability from roughly 2.5 to 15.0 kft agl. Many factors aligning to bring the high pressure, including negative differential cyclonic vorticity advection with exit of the trough axis, advent of deeper cold air advection, and confluent flow aloft drifting just east of Southeast Michigan. Secondary 900-800mb dry air advection is expected to combine with increasing active subsidence to dry out the column even more locally. Pwats this afternoon are forecasted to drop below 0.07 of an inch, which is nearing record territory. No tangible shot at any meaningful cloud resulted in sunny conditions. Upper level shortwave ridging aloft will push down into the central Great Lakes as anticyclonic Rossby wave break arrives. Absolute vorticity fields show strong anticyclonic gyre to rotate down through the region only adding to active subsidence. This forcing tonight will force the subsidence to aggressively work down into the 1.5 to 6.0 kft agl layer.

The anticyclonic gyre will support a deep anticyclone center from 875mb upwards of 400mb tracking directly through Southeast Michigan from 12-21Z Friday. Dry column and surface based mixing will result in another day with no cloud. Development of southwesterly return flow particularly during the afternoon hours will allow temperatures to moderate a good amount. Highs Friday are expected to be in the middle 30s some 10 degrees warmer than today.

Very quiet weather in store throughout the upcoming weekend as dry westerly flow remains in place. Forecast soundings show that given the thermodynamics it will require a significant advection event to get the column saturated any appreciably amount. Prevailing southwesterly winds will be in place which will result in continued moderation each of the days. Clouds are a primary question for temperatures this time of the year and current indications are that any frontogenetic/cloud area will remain well to the north of Southeast Michigan. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the lower to middle 40s, temperatures Sunday are expected to be in the upper 40s potentially reaching the lower 50s. These values will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Southern stream PV anomaly from the coast of California is forecasted to push eastward and arrive over the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys Monday or Tuesday. Current indications suggest this initial PV feature will deamplify and become sheared out by the time it arrives. Latest forecasted flow configuration suggests a very strong southern split stream jet packet moving across the Southern United States. Given the lack of phasing in the curren t model suite, the lead energy supports much of the energy remaining to the south initially.

MARINE .

High pressure over MN/IA will continue to drop south-southeast across the Plains today into this weekend. The central Great Lakes region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high as it slides across the central part of the country. Winds will slowly rotate from west-northwest today to southwesterly Friday. A stronger gradient and favorable 850mb LLJ dynamics will develop as a low pivots through Hudson Bay generating stronger winds Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models today have been trending more aggressive with low-end gale-force gusts across the Outer Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron resulting from the long fetch on the bay with SW flow. A Gale Watch is in effect for the previously mentioned areas Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Winds will begin to relax some this weekend as the low moves into northeastern Quebec weakening the gradient over the Great Lakes region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LHZ363-421.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi50 min W 17 G 19 21°F 1033.5 hPa (-0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi70 min WSW 12 G 14 20°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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W6
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W6
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1 day
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W6
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G13
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W8
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W9
G14
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G21
NW12
G18
W10
G15
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G15
W8
G12
W9
G13
W11
G18
W10
G16
W9
G13
W11
G16
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G16
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G19
SW10
G15
W8
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G11
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2 days
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SE14
G17
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G21
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G22
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SE19
G24
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G31
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G27
S17
S12
G16
SW9
G13
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G18
W16
G25
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G22
W18
G25
W13
G19
W12
G20
W17
G22
W12
G20
W11
G17
W13
G17
W8
G14
W6
G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi57 minWSW 410.00 miFair17°F3°F54%1036.9 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi55 minSW 510.00 miFair18°F5°F58%1035.2 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi55 minWSW 310.00 miFair17°F3°F54%1035.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W10NW11NW9W7W6SW7W8W7W7NW7W7W6NW11W8W10NW8N9N5SW9SW9SW9SW7SW4
1 day agoW14W15W13W10SW9W15
G21
NW17NW13NW10
G19
NW9W7W7--W9W9W13SW13W16SW11W16
G24
W13W10W11W9
2 days agoE10E11--E12E11E9SE7SE9S7S10SW14
G22
SW14
G25
W20
G26
W20
G32
W20
G29
W18
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--W17
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--W13W12W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.