Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essexville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 5:00PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:58 PM EST (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:33PMMoonset 10:16AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ462 Lake Huron From Port Austin To Harbor Beach Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 359 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots early in the morning. A chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet early in the morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots until late afternoon becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light and variable winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of snow late in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west early in the evening...then backing to the south in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ462 Expires:201912150915;;787014 FZUS63 KDTX 142059 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Strong low pressure system, 28.90 inches, moves into southern Quebec this evening. Colder air will then filter into the Central Great Lakes bringing northwest gales for the northern half of Lake Huron tonight into tomorrow. High pressure, averaging 30.10 inches, then moves in tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Low pressure system, 29.70 inches, will then track along the Ohio River on Monday. LHZ462>464-150915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essexville city, MI
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location: 43.66, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 142318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 618 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

AVIATION.

A deeper plume of low level moisture will take residence tonight within an increasingly cold west-northwest wind. This process initially marked this evening by a reduction in ceiling heights and retention of some visibility restrictions. Prevailing MVFR to IFR conditions through midnight, with some pockets of drizzle possible. Temperatures hovering just above freezing precludes any concern for freezing drizzle during this time. Conditions will become favorable for some downstream penetration of light lake effect snow showers during the early-mid morning hours Sunday. Outgoing forecast continues to highlight the most likely window for development, calling for a modest response with limited accumulation potential. Gradual low level drying will ease ceilings into VFR as stratus lingers throughout Sunday. Moisture may prove sufficient to offer some flurries into the afternoon, but additional meaningful activity is not expected.

For DTW . Extensive lower stratus will hold firm through the night. This will be accompanied by some reduction of visibility /3-5 mi/ and potentially some pockets of drizzle. Any dz will occur with temperatures still above freezing. Window for snow shower activity centered mid morning Sunday /09z-13z/. Any accumulation will remain minor.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for cigs below 5000 ft through Sunday * Ptype expected to be drizzle if any prior to 06z, then snow late tonight with patchy coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 329 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

DISCUSSION .

A stratus deck is rapidly advancing across the area within strengthening west-northwest low level flow. Upstream radar with some visibility restrictions do suggest some drizzle may be falling out of this low cloud deck. Given that temps are near 40 over most of the area and the boundary layer should remain relatively well mixed this evening, suspect any light drizzle will occur with temps just above freezing. A northern stream trough advancing across the nrn Great Lakes tonight will drive colder air into Se Mi with 850mb temps expected to drop into the negative teens by Sun afternoon. A growing depth of the mixed layer tonight and cooling near the top of the cloud layer should initiate ice nucleation, allowing snow showers to become the dominate precip type. Convergence along a passing sfc trough axis and an increase in the Lake Mi response will be the main factors driving the snow shower activity overnight into Sun morning. The brevity of snow shower activity and less than ideal snow microphysics should keep any snow accums under an inch. Significant drying during the day Sunday should temper any activity that releases off Lake Mi to just flurries Sun afternoon.

The last couple model runs have shown a trend toward less amplified waves (and suppressed to the south) in the southern stream Sun night into Tuesday, likely due to more progressiveness in the northern stream waves across Central Canada and the Dakotas. This results in the bulk of model solutions keeping precip assoicated with the tightening low-mid level baroclinic zone across the Ohio Valley south of the state. This has warranted a reduction in pops Sun night and Monday. There remains some degree of uncertainty with respect to the timing and amplitude of a strong wave forecast to eject out of the southern Rockies on Monday. The NAM and Canadian maintain enough amplitude with this wave to clip portions of Se Mi with the deformation axis, enough to maintain the chance of snow in the south Mon night. The Euro and even the GFS (which was the more bullish with this feature) are more sheared and essentially keep most of Se Mi dry.

A polar low is forecast to drop out of central Canada and race toward New England Wed to Thurs. Relatively strong model agreement and consistency with this feature leads to a relatively high confidence that arctic air will be driven into Se Mi Tues night and Wed morning. The progressive nature of this system will make this arctic air intrusion brief as rebounding mid level heights and a rapid warming trend will already take hold by Thurs and Fri.

MARINE .

Troughing over the lakes today with the center of a low pressure system lifting across the northeastern US is leading to northwest flow across the central Great Lake today into tonight. Tightening pressure gradient into tonight along with the arrival of colder air over the lakes will bring a set up capable of marginal gale force winds across the northern half of Lake Huron. A Gale Warning is in effect for these winds starting tonight and lasting into tomorrow morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions will also be met for northern portions of the Thumb as wave action increases tonight and last into tomorrow afternoon. Winds begin easing up tomorrow afternoon as the low lifts well to the northeast. Winds remain light across the lakes on Monday into while a low pressure system moves across the Ohio River Valley bringing snow showers to the southern lakes. More impactful surge of arctic air with a low pressure system comes late Tuesday into Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Sunday for LHZ421-441-442.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 12 mi59 min W 16 G 17 34°F 1001.7 hPa (+0.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 29 mi79 min W 15 G 18 34°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi79 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 34°F 1002 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi66 minW 137.00 miOvercast33°F28°F82%1003.8 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI16 mi64 minW 107.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1002.7 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI23 mi63 minWSW 87.00 miOvercast32°F29°F91%1003 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS6S5CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm--N3NW4NW4NW6N6NW6NW7NW7W5SW5W7W8W11W13
1 day agoS11
G22
S9S8S8S11S11S10S8S7S7S7S7S7S8S10S8S7S7S6S6S5S5S4Calm
2 days agoW12W7SW4S4S4S4S5S4SE6S4SE7S8S8SE11S14S13S16S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.