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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Wednesday evening...
Early this morning..Northwest winds around 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers and patchy drizzle. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southwest 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers, patchy drizzle and a slight chance of light freezing drizzle until midday, then a slight chance of flurries in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 8 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 111126 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 626 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

We have been monitoring observations across the area and outside our door this morning for any evidence that freezing drizzle is "heavy" enough to cause impacts and require the need for messaging about it.

All of the area observations have not shown any kind of restriction to visibility since the snow showers moved through just before midnight. Outside the door here, there is the slightest hint of some very light mist, but it is not freezing on any sfcs so far. The T/Td depression is likely enough to help it evaporate before freezing on sfcs.

The good news is that the very light radar echoes are shrinking in coverage and intensity, and with that the chance for any meaningful frozen pcpn. This is occurring as the upper trough is shifting east of the area, and the cyclonic flow aloft is transitioning to anti- cyclonic flow.

The low level flow will back a bit today eventually to become from the SW. There may be a couple of residual lake effect flurries/light snow showers as the flow becomes more onshore. Forecast soundings indicate a thin layer of the dgz barely being saturated, leading to the light drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow threshold being very close.

It does look like any snow showers will end by this evening.
Indications are that the low clouds will gradually move/erode from SW to NE this evening as lake effect ends as temps aloft warm sufficiently. We will see a weak front try and clip the northern portion of the area late tonight and early Tuesday. This will help low clouds to try to redevelop, and to bring a small chc of pcpn to the U.S.-10 corridor.

That should move out Tuesday morning, and allow skies to try to clear out once again no later than Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

No significant weather expected through next weekend. A trough axis moves east on Wednesday with shortwave ridging for Thursday. Mostly clear skies are expected for the peak of the Geminid meteor shower on Wednesday night.

Only slight chance POPs in the forecast for Friday with a weak trough and sfc cold front slowly settling south across the Great Lakes. A weak clipper could moves along the front over the weekend.
Forecast soundings show little moisture to work with and the mean path of the sfc low remains north of the forecast area, so little if any QPF is expected.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 625 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Radar imagery currently showing small areas of precip in the form of -SHSN or -FZDZ across southwest Lower Michigan but this is very light and should not have any impact on aviation operations.
MVFR conditions will prevail today with ceilings around 2500 feet AGL and cloud tops between 4000 and 5000 feet.

The stratus deck should start to break up this evening with VFR conditions overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

We are hoisting a Gale Warning for Pentwater to Manistee for tonight, and hoisting a Small Craft Advisory for the rest of the area from this evening through Wednesday.

We are in a relative lull this morning with regards to winds and waves. The gusty winds over the last couple of days have moved out.
This will be short lived as the gradient will pick up out of the SW ahead of a system that will moving by to our north. Winds will diminish a bit after tonight, but will stay up enough until early Wednesday to keep the SCA in effect. Waves do not come down enough until late Wednesday.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>848.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ849.

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