Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 5:11PM Thursday December 5, 2019 5:48 PM EST (22:48 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Friday through Friday evening...
Through early evening..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering west late at night, then becoming north to 30 knots toward daybreak. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..North winds to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots backing south 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..South winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:201912060900;;905704 FZUS53 KGRR 052106 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-060900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 052000 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 300 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

- Light snow along and north of U.S.-10 tonight with light accumulations expected

- Quiet and relatively mild Friday through early Sunday with some sunshine expected

- Rain late Sunday into Monday, changing to snow Monday night

- Lake effect snow showers Tuesday-Wednesday with much colder temperatures

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Little to no impact weather expected through early Sunday for most of the area. The main impacts will come beginning late Monday as rain changes to snow, and then lake effect should get going for Tuesday into Wednesday with much colder temperatures.

No real change in thinking for a light dusting of snow tonight, mainly along and north of the U.S.-10 corridor. This light snow will be the result of a short wave that is over Southern Manitoba this afternoon. This wave will slide across Northern Michigan later tonight and early Friday morning.

We are expecting quite a quiet period then from Friday, through most of Sunday. Ridging at the surface and aloft will slowly build over the area, and then push east on Saturday. Once it moves east, we will see a fairly decent low level SW flow set up. This will push warmer air into the area. It is possible that we could approach 50 degrees on Sunday. The downside of this SW flow, is that it will eventually tap Gulf moisture, and bring low clouds and maybe some drizzle in on Sunday.

We will see a weak cold front drop in later Sunday, and then stall out over the area into Monday. This will set the stage for a stronger upper wave to develop a surface low along the front and bring more steady rains to the area on Monday. As the low passes NE Monday night, colder air with the northern branch of the upper jet will push in. This will change rain with the system, to some light snow behind the low.

The upper air pattern will be conducive for some decent lake effect snow showers for Tuesday into Wednesday. The northern branch of the upper jet will push south of the area, putting the area under the deeper cold air and cyclonic flow. In the lower levels, it is likely that we will see the -20C isotherm at 850 mb move over the area. The flow for much of the time should be from the NW, favoring the areas along and west of U.S.-131`for accumulating snow showers. Highs will be lucky to hit 20 F next Wednesday.

It does look like the upper low and northern branch of the jet will lift out of the area by Wednesday afternoon. This will bring the more robust lake effect to an end. Enough ridging will build in by Thursday to shut most of the lake effect down. The lower levels will remain cold, until return flow can set back up just beyond this forecast period.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

MVFR ceilings that were over most terminals this morning are trying to clear out from south to north. The I-94 terminals have lost the lower clouds for the most part, and should stay VFR until overnight. The I-96 terminals will likely lose the lower clouds for a bit, but they will move back in later this evening as a front moves into the area. There is a chance of a few flurries at the I-96 terminals overnight. These will be light enough and isolated enough that they are not worth mentioning in the forecast at this time. We will see the low clouds eventually mix/move out Fri. This will likely happen just after this forecast period.

MARINE. Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

One marine event has ended, with the next one starting tonight and just a brief break. This event looks like a marginal event with not a lot of lakeshore flooding or erosion expected. We have additional Small Craft events possible over the weekend.

A more robust event will come in with the arrival of the colder air Mon night/Tue of next week. This could be more of a lakeshore flooding and beach erosion event.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Area rivers and streams are in the process of recovering after the recent heavier rainfalls last week. The crests on the rivers have just about made it to Lake Michigan. This recovery will continue through much of the weekend with little to no appreciable precipitation until then. Our next event will be late Sunday through Monday with rainfall expected on the front end. This will push rivers up some, but should not be significant at this time. From Monday night and beyond, colder air will move in, and likely lock up runoff.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . NJJ DISCUSSION . NJJ AVIATION . NJJ HYDROLOGY . NJJ MARINE . NJJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi55 min ESE 4.1 G 7 35°F 26°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi69 min ESE 4.1 G 8 35°F 1015.2 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi29 min SW 14 G 16 39°F 1016 hPa33°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi69 min ESE 1.9 G 6 34°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi54 minESE 310.00 miOvercast34°F28°F79%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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N8N6N7N9NW5N9N10
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N4CalmCalmCalmS3S4E4E5
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8SW7SW9SW8SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.