Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 9:29PM Monday July 6, 2020 5:11 PM EDT (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 6:26AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Through early evening..South winds around 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering west. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots veering east after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:202007070800;;425261 FZUS53 KGRR 062006 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-070800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 061918 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 318 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

- Hot weather through the week

- Thunderstorms possible tomorrow

- Greatest risk for thunderstorms Thursday into Friday

- Significantly cooler by the weekend / then warmer again


DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

--Hot weather through the week--

Thanks to the polar jet staying north of Michigan most of the week, we will continue to see unusually persistent heat most of this week. At this point it seems to me the hottest day will likely be Thursday, as the upper ridge builds ahead of the approaching cold front.

The large scale upper air pattern features a longwave ridge off the east coast, a weak trough over the eastern seaboard, an upper ridge over the west central CONUS, and large scale trough just off the west coast. This overall pattern really does not change much for the next two weeks. However, we do have a weak northern stream shortwave tracking north of the area tomorrow. There are two much stronger upper waves to watch however. The lead wave is currently coming on shore over our west coast and it extends off shore as far south as California. The wave upstream of that is over the Aleutian Islands currently. The lead wave strengthens as it crosses the Rockies and develops a closed upper low over Alberta. It is that system deepening that builds the upper heights over us and will cause us to be warmer by Thursday. That system comes through the area later Thursday into Friday. Since that system will move into the longwave trough over the eastern seaboard, that will significantly lower our upper heights over the weekend and bring an end to the hot weather for a few days.

The bottom line here is until the lead Pacific system gets east of Grand Rapids, it will remain hot here.

--Thunderstorms possible tomorrow--

That weak northern stream shortwave comes through this area during the morning hours of Tuesday and pushes a weak cold front into the area. The convection on the cold front does not look like it will make it into Southwest Michigan Tuesday morning based on the CAMS. However, sometimes these storms do better those models forecast them to. So it would not be out of the question.

The storms should be near Route 10 by midnight but are expected to dissipate in the mid level dry air over our area. Again, do not be surprise if the get farther south early Tuesday morning.

The weak front comes through this area by mid morning Tuesday. That will result afternoon convection, mostly over our eastern CWA due the mostly west winds at the surface.

--Greatest risk for thunderstorms Thursday into Friday--

That lead Pacific wave that tops the upper ridge Wednesday into Thursday will bring our best chance of widespread thunderstorms to area. Given how the models do not do well with closed upper lows and that the system is just coming on shore in the first place, I would not want to overplay this but there are strong height falls with this system as comes into the Great Lakes and a decent low level moisture feed into it. So if anything could bring widespread rain to our area, it would be this system. Timing is hard so pin down given how far out in time this is and it is just coming into our upper air system now.

--Significantly cooler by the weekend / then warmer again--

Once that lead wave comes through our upper level heights really lower and thus our deep layer thickness pattern lower significantly. 850 temps should finally fall below 15c! I could see highs not making out of the lower 80s on Sunday.

Do not get use to the cooler weather through because the trailing Pacific system will build the ridge in front of it and that may well lead to the hottest weather of the summer to date by the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

VFR conditions persist this afternoon. Skies are mostly sunny across much of lower MI, however latest satellite images show some cumulus fields across the southeastern part of the state. This area will be a main focal point for any shower/storm activity this afternoon, with the greatest chances for JXN and LAN. Regardless, given low confidence on shower or storm activity impacting TAF sites, we will keep them out of TAFs.

MARINE. Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

With no strong systems coming through the area this week and dew points mostly below 70 degrees, and given the lake surface temperature is around 70 the risk of marine fog is not all that high either. So, not much to worry about until the thunderstorms with the frontal system Thursday night into Friday morning.


GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . Thielke MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi59 min SSW 8 G 12 78°F 69°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi91 min S 8.9 G 13 81°F 1016.3 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi31 min SW 8 G 8 78°F 1015 hPa72°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi31 min S 7 G 11 79°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi75 minWSW 910.00 miFair86°F67°F55%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW8SW7W8SW8SW8SW8
1 day agoNW7NW7N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW5SW7W6W5SW7
2 days agoN8N9N7N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3NW4NW7W8NW5NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.