Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hart, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 5:47PM Friday January 24, 2020 3:47 AM EST (08:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:15AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 1005 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow showers. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow and rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow and rain likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of snow and rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering northwest late in the day. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ848 Expires:202001241000;;420988 FZUS53 KGRR 240306 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-241000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hart, MI
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location: 43.66, -86.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 240830 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

- Friday morning mix, daytime rain, possibly evening snow

- Cloudy weekend with lingering light precipitation

- Relatively quiet but cloudy weather early next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

-- Friday morning mix, daytime rain, possibly evening snow --

This is not an easy low-pressure system to forecast, with irregular precipitation rates and low level wet-bulb temperatures on the fence between supporting rain vs snow. What is relatively good confidence based on agreement of the model suite: After this 0.1 inch rain/snow mix dissipates around daybreak, there should be a several hour lull in precip, followed by about 0.3 to 0.5 inches of precip between late morning and midnight.

We are also fairly confident most of this will be rain, with some exceptions: Midday mix may linger in central Michigan, and a changeover to snow during the evening is possible especially north/west of Holland, Grand Rapids, and Mount Pleasant. There is moderate disagreement in the mesoscale models regarding the temperatures of the lowest 4000 feet, with the NAM3 and WRF-NMM being the colder solutions. We'll speculate that this may be due to differences in how the model physics handle precip rates in the snow melting layer and its feedback into cooling off temperatures. What may also be helping the cause for snow in the northwest would be the ceasing of warm-air advection during the evening as the 850 low will be centered over Lake Michigan. So we can't rule out wet snow accumulations of an inch or less this evening in central/west-central Michigan.

-- Cloudy weekend with lingering light precipitation --

The surface low will be right over Lower Michigan on Saturday and will be in the process of filling in and propagating northeast. There may be drizzle for part of the day, but also there is some concern for fog as winds go light with moist low- level air and some remaining snowpack in place. There is also a chance of wrap- around moisture providing light snow to southern Michigan during the afternoon. For Sunday, there may be enough low-level moisture and lift from disorganized shortwaves to produce drizzle or light snow, but amounts would be very light.

-- Relatively quiet but cloudy weather early next week --

Ensembles are painting mostly cloudy and fairly quiet week, with only occasional chances for minor precipitation amounts. The chance of precipitation may increase later in the week.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 115 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

There will be some intermittency to the precipitation and ceiling/visibility throughout the day, but in general, flight categories will gradually worsen during this forecast period. Multiple waves of precipitation will move through, starting as a snow/rain mix tonight, becoming predominantly rain during the day, then likely becoming predominantly snow this evening.

MARINE. Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

Waves will stay below small craft advisory levels through at least Saturday. East winds today may be pretty gusty.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

The localized ice jam on the Kalamazoo River in Comstock remains in place but water levels have slowly fallen. Additional changes in water level are possible. Elsewhere, rivers are steadily declining and mild temperatures through the weekend will ensure no new river ice is produced.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . CAS DISCUSSION . CAS AVIATION . CAS HYDROLOGY . Hoving MARINE . CAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 20 mi53 min 33°F 31°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 27 mi67 min E 7 G 8.9 32°F 1018.6 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi27 min E 11 G 14 33°F 1018.5 hPa31°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 42 mi67 min ENE 4.1 G 7 33°F 1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI22 mi51 minE 55.00 miFog/Mist32°F32°F100%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE4SE6SE7SE7SE5SE5SE5SE7SE6SE7SE4SE5SE4E4E4E5E6SE3E4E6E5E5E6
1 day agoSW17
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2 days agoCalmW3W4W5W9W7W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.