Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winchester Bay, OR
December 7, 2023 11:42 AM PST (19:42 UTC)
Sunrise 7:34AM Sunset 4:42PM Moonrise 1:57AM Moonset 1:47PM
PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 851 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 12 to 13 ft at 14 seconds...subsiding to 10 to 11 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. SWell less than 2 ft. Showers and isolated tstms.
Tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 9 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Showers and isolated tstms.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 9 ft at 12 seconds. Numerous showers.
Fri night..E wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 8 to 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming sw 3 ft at 3 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds...building to 8 to 9 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves W 8 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 8 to 11 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Sun..S wind 25 kt...easing to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 12 seconds... Subsiding to 9 ft at 11 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
Mon..NE wind 10 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds...shifting to the N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 10 seconds.
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 12 to 13 ft at 14 seconds...subsiding to 10 to 11 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. SWell less than 2 ft. Showers and isolated tstms.
Tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves nw 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 9 to 11 ft at 12 seconds. Showers and isolated tstms.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 9 ft at 12 seconds. Numerous showers.
Fri night..E wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to se after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 8 to 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming sw 3 ft at 3 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 7 ft at 11 seconds...building to 8 to 9 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves W 8 ft at 7 seconds. SWell W 8 to 11 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Sun..S wind 25 kt...easing to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 12 seconds... Subsiding to 9 ft at 11 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.
Mon..NE wind 10 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 4 seconds...shifting to the N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 10 seconds.
PZZ300 851 Am Pst Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front early today and trailing low pressure into early Friday will bring moderate winds. High and steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas. A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds.
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front early today and trailing low pressure into early Friday will bring moderate winds. High and steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas. A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds.
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KMFR 071715 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 915 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023
Updated Aviation Discussion
DISCUSSION
bands of precipitation have been moving through the region through the night into this morning, brining light to moderate snow to the Cascades and higher elevations in the Siskiyous, Mt Shasta and other higher ranges in Northern California. Snow levels have lowered this morning down to Siskiyou Summit and should remain at around 3500 feet through the day today, before lowering to near 2500 feet tonight. The bulk of the precipitation should be through before this happens, with lighter snow amounts. Current forecast looks on track and will not update this morning.
AVIATION
07/18Z TAFs...A front will enhance precipitation rates and coverage across the area today with a freezing level around 4000 feet. Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the coastal waters to near shore into the early evening, especially north of Cape Blanco.
Meantime, the enhanced precipitation will increase coverage of MVFR and mountain obscuration this morning into the early evening. This includes moderate snowfall over the higher terrain of the west side to the Cascades, and light snow across the east side. Thus, potential impacts include snowfall at Klamath Falls and thunderstorms at North Bend.
An interlude of intermittent light showers and diminished probability of coastal thunderstorms is expected behind the front from late afternoon into early evening. But, an additional weaker disturbance is expected to bring another uptick in shower and MVFR ceiling coverage from around 06Z this evening into Friday morning (especially for the coast and Douglas County). Elsewhere, late tonight into Friday morning, mainly in the remainder of southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County, there is a lower probability of showers but increased probability of valley IFR/LIFR developing.
-DW/Schaaf
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 412 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023/
SHORT TERM...Waves of showers are moving through the region this morning as one trough exits to the east and another quick moving trough moves in later this morning. Snow levels are currently hovering around 4000 ft, but are expected to bottom out around 3500 ft by sunrise and hover there through the day today. This will bring some moderate winter impacts to the Cascades/Siskiyous/Warners and higher terrain of Siskiyou County through the day today. The heaviest snow is expected across the Cascades where around 12 to 16 inches are in the forecast. For the remainder of the advisory area, generally 6 to 10 inches are expected. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded, however, to cover the Highway 97 corridor north of Chiloquin where 2 to 4 inches over the morning could cause some travel difficulties today. More details can be found at WSWMFR.
While snow is the main impact for today, there will also be breezy winds, isolated thunderstorms and periods of moderate to heavy rain with this quick moving trough. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fairly common across the highest terrain this morning, and this will persist into the afternoon. There could be a brief uptick where gusts reach up to 40 mph late this morning/early afternoon as midlevel winds increase, but winds in general will be weaker today compared to Wednesday, so advisory level winds are not anticipated today. Isolated thunderstorms are moving over the waters and onshore this morning with a few ground strikes recorded near Gold Beach and Coos Bay. This trend is expected to continue through the morning and into the afternoon with chances expected mainly west of the I-5 corridor. The bulk of the precipitation with this trough is currently moving onshore and will spread inland through late morning and make it's way east of the Cascades during the afternoon. This will bring another quick 0.50"-1.00" to areas west of the Cascades, except closer to 0.25" for the Rogue/Shasta/Scott Valleys. While this rainfall may result in some brief ponding on roadways, there are no flooding concerns with this round of rainfall.
Shower coverage will begin to diminish late this afternoon and evening, but showers will continue overnight into Friday morning, mainly across the northern and western areas. Shower activity really diminishes Friday afternoon as upper level ridging builds into the region. Dry conditions are expected to continue into Saturday with guidance trending later with the arrival of the next system. Cold surface high pressure east of the Cascades Friday night will lead to a chilly Saturday morning across the region. Mid to upper teens are forecast east of the Cascades with upper 20s/low 30s for areas south and east of the Umpqua-Rogue Divide. For now, it looks like coastal locations will stay above freezing, but there is about a 10% chance that North Bend could reach down to 32 degrees Saturday morning.
Morning temperatures will moderate after Saturday as cloud cover increases late Saturday ahead of the next system. /BR-y
LONG TERM (from Wednesday (12/6) afternoon's AFD)...Saturday through Wednesday...The extended forecast will be relatively quiet compared with the near term. On Saturday, a warm front lifts north of the area and a weakening cold front moves across the region on Sunday. Higher pressure and a thermal trough pattern is expected Monday into Tuesday. A front may brush the area to the north on Wednesday with high pressure rebuilding.
The period with the highest chance of precipitation is Saturday night through Monday morning. Much of this atmospheric river is directed toward Washington with less precipitation across southern Oregon and far northern California. Snow levels will be well above normal for this time of year, above the high passes, until the tail- end on Monday morning as the precipitation is winding down. Also of note, there could be gusty winds east of the Cascades on Saturday ahead of the cold front.
The models are in good agreement with the upper flow pattern for this forecast period. However, there are differences with the strength of the upper ridge Monday through Wednesday, especially by Wednesday. Sandler
MARINE
Updated 230 AM Thursday December 7, 2023
A cold front early today and trailing low pressure into early Friday will bring moderate winds, but high and steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. Isolated thunderstorms are expected into this evening, with the highest probability north of Cape Blanco. These could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts.
Winds and seas will briefly diminish Friday into early Saturday as high pressure builds in. The next frontal system arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with an initial front focused north of our area Saturday then a stronger disturbance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas are expected with a 40 percent chance of gales north of Cape Arago.
A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds into Tuesday. Forecast uncertainty increases beyond Tuesday. But, conditions are likely to briefly improve at mid- week with an active pattern resuming late in the week.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 915 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023
Updated Aviation Discussion
DISCUSSION
bands of precipitation have been moving through the region through the night into this morning, brining light to moderate snow to the Cascades and higher elevations in the Siskiyous, Mt Shasta and other higher ranges in Northern California. Snow levels have lowered this morning down to Siskiyou Summit and should remain at around 3500 feet through the day today, before lowering to near 2500 feet tonight. The bulk of the precipitation should be through before this happens, with lighter snow amounts. Current forecast looks on track and will not update this morning.
AVIATION
07/18Z TAFs...A front will enhance precipitation rates and coverage across the area today with a freezing level around 4000 feet. Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the coastal waters to near shore into the early evening, especially north of Cape Blanco.
Meantime, the enhanced precipitation will increase coverage of MVFR and mountain obscuration this morning into the early evening. This includes moderate snowfall over the higher terrain of the west side to the Cascades, and light snow across the east side. Thus, potential impacts include snowfall at Klamath Falls and thunderstorms at North Bend.
An interlude of intermittent light showers and diminished probability of coastal thunderstorms is expected behind the front from late afternoon into early evening. But, an additional weaker disturbance is expected to bring another uptick in shower and MVFR ceiling coverage from around 06Z this evening into Friday morning (especially for the coast and Douglas County). Elsewhere, late tonight into Friday morning, mainly in the remainder of southwest Oregon and western Siskiyou County, there is a lower probability of showers but increased probability of valley IFR/LIFR developing.
-DW/Schaaf
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 412 AM PST Thu Dec 7 2023/
SHORT TERM...Waves of showers are moving through the region this morning as one trough exits to the east and another quick moving trough moves in later this morning. Snow levels are currently hovering around 4000 ft, but are expected to bottom out around 3500 ft by sunrise and hover there through the day today. This will bring some moderate winter impacts to the Cascades/Siskiyous/Warners and higher terrain of Siskiyou County through the day today. The heaviest snow is expected across the Cascades where around 12 to 16 inches are in the forecast. For the remainder of the advisory area, generally 6 to 10 inches are expected. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded, however, to cover the Highway 97 corridor north of Chiloquin where 2 to 4 inches over the morning could cause some travel difficulties today. More details can be found at WSWMFR.
While snow is the main impact for today, there will also be breezy winds, isolated thunderstorms and periods of moderate to heavy rain with this quick moving trough. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are fairly common across the highest terrain this morning, and this will persist into the afternoon. There could be a brief uptick where gusts reach up to 40 mph late this morning/early afternoon as midlevel winds increase, but winds in general will be weaker today compared to Wednesday, so advisory level winds are not anticipated today. Isolated thunderstorms are moving over the waters and onshore this morning with a few ground strikes recorded near Gold Beach and Coos Bay. This trend is expected to continue through the morning and into the afternoon with chances expected mainly west of the I-5 corridor. The bulk of the precipitation with this trough is currently moving onshore and will spread inland through late morning and make it's way east of the Cascades during the afternoon. This will bring another quick 0.50"-1.00" to areas west of the Cascades, except closer to 0.25" for the Rogue/Shasta/Scott Valleys. While this rainfall may result in some brief ponding on roadways, there are no flooding concerns with this round of rainfall.
Shower coverage will begin to diminish late this afternoon and evening, but showers will continue overnight into Friday morning, mainly across the northern and western areas. Shower activity really diminishes Friday afternoon as upper level ridging builds into the region. Dry conditions are expected to continue into Saturday with guidance trending later with the arrival of the next system. Cold surface high pressure east of the Cascades Friday night will lead to a chilly Saturday morning across the region. Mid to upper teens are forecast east of the Cascades with upper 20s/low 30s for areas south and east of the Umpqua-Rogue Divide. For now, it looks like coastal locations will stay above freezing, but there is about a 10% chance that North Bend could reach down to 32 degrees Saturday morning.
Morning temperatures will moderate after Saturday as cloud cover increases late Saturday ahead of the next system. /BR-y
LONG TERM (from Wednesday (12/6) afternoon's AFD)...Saturday through Wednesday...The extended forecast will be relatively quiet compared with the near term. On Saturday, a warm front lifts north of the area and a weakening cold front moves across the region on Sunday. Higher pressure and a thermal trough pattern is expected Monday into Tuesday. A front may brush the area to the north on Wednesday with high pressure rebuilding.
The period with the highest chance of precipitation is Saturday night through Monday morning. Much of this atmospheric river is directed toward Washington with less precipitation across southern Oregon and far northern California. Snow levels will be well above normal for this time of year, above the high passes, until the tail- end on Monday morning as the precipitation is winding down. Also of note, there could be gusty winds east of the Cascades on Saturday ahead of the cold front.
The models are in good agreement with the upper flow pattern for this forecast period. However, there are differences with the strength of the upper ridge Monday through Wednesday, especially by Wednesday. Sandler
MARINE
Updated 230 AM Thursday December 7, 2023
A cold front early today and trailing low pressure into early Friday will bring moderate winds, but high and steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. Isolated thunderstorms are expected into this evening, with the highest probability north of Cape Blanco. These could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts.
Winds and seas will briefly diminish Friday into early Saturday as high pressure builds in. The next frontal system arrives late Saturday into Sunday, with an initial front focused north of our area Saturday then a stronger disturbance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas are expected with a 40 percent chance of gales north of Cape Arago.
A thermal trough is likely to develop along the coast Monday with increasing north winds into Tuesday. Forecast uncertainty increases beyond Tuesday. But, conditions are likely to briefly improve at mid- week with an active pattern resuming late in the week.
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ027-028.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) | 20 mi | 47 min | 54°F | 11 ft | ||||
| CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR | 24 mi | 67 min | SE 1G | 30.06 | ||||
| SNTO3 | 28 mi | 73 min | SSW 4.1 | 45°F | 30.06 | 45°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOTH SOUTHWEST OREGON RGNL,OR | 18 sm | 46 min | SSE 07 | 6 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 45°F | 45°F | 100% | 30.07 |
Wind History from OTH
(wind in knots)Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:08 AM PST 2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:01 AM PST 6.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 02:40 PM PST 2.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 08:37 PM PST 4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:08 AM PST 2.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:01 AM PST 6.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 02:40 PM PST 2.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 08:37 PM PST 4.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 2.2 |
| 2 am |
| 2.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.9 |
| 4 am |
| 3.7 |
| 5 am |
| 4.7 |
| 6 am |
| 5.7 |
| 7 am |
| 6.3 |
| 8 am |
| 6.6 |
| 9 am |
| 6.3 |
| 10 am |
| 5.6 |
| 11 am |
| 4.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.9 |
Gardiner
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 02:14 AM PST 1.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:52 AM PST 6.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 03:46 PM PST 1.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 09:28 PM PST 4.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:55 AM PST Moonrise
Thu -- 02:14 AM PST 1.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:36 AM PST Sunrise
Thu -- 08:52 AM PST 6.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM PST Moonset
Thu -- 03:46 PM PST 1.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM PST Sunset
Thu -- 09:28 PM PST 4.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.7 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.9 |
| 4 am |
| 2.5 |
| 5 am |
| 3.4 |
| 6 am |
| 4.5 |
| 7 am |
| 5.5 |
| 8 am |
| 6.2 |
| 9 am |
| 6.4 |
| 10 am |
| 6.1 |
| 11 am |
| 5.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.2 |
Medford, OR,
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