Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester Bay, OR

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:15PM Monday August 19, 2019 9:55 AM PDT (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:31PMMoonset 9:19AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 842 Am Pdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Mostly light winds and low seas will prevail over the waters through Tuesday morning. A cold front will bring a period of increasing south winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with building swells late Tuesday night through Thursday. Northerly winds and shorter period seas will return late this week into the weekend, highest south of cape blanco.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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location: 43.68, -124.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 191549
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
849 am pdt Mon aug 19 2019

Discussion No updates are needed this morning. Marine stratus
has cleared from the coast north of CAPE blanco, but remains in
the umpqua and coquille basins as well as just along the coast
south of CAPE blanco. Once these clouds clear later this morning,
expect another sunny, warm day. For the rest of the area,
conditions will be nearly identical to yesterday and this is
covered well in the forecast. Today's efforts will be focused on
the front expected on Wednesday, which models have trended
stronger this front. The night shift made adjustments to the
forecast accordingly, so we'll be taking a look at the new model
runs to see if any further adjustments are necessary. For more
details on this, see the previous discussion below. Br-y

Aviation For the 19 12z tafs... Along the coast and just
inland... A deep marine layer has resulted in MVFR ceilings and these
will continue through early afternoon then clear toVFR. MVFR
conditions are expected to return this evening and possibly lower to
ifr early Tuesday morning. Further inland over the umpqua basin near
krbg, MVFR ceilings should continue through mid to late morning
before clearing toVFR. Ceilings are less likely to return tonight
as the marine layer is expected to compress some. Elsewhere,VFR
conditions will continue through the TAF period. Keene

Marine Updated 800 am pdt Monday 19 august 2019... Mostly light
winds and low seas will prevail over the waters through Tuesday
morning. A cold front will bring a period of increasing south winds
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with building swells late Tuesday
night through Thursday. Latest model data suggests southerly winds
and mixed seas nearing small craft advisory levels north of cape
blanco on Wednesday. Northerly winds and shorter period seas will
return late this week into the weekend, highest south of cape
blanco -spilde keene

Prev discussion issued 445 am pdt Mon aug 19 2019
updated aviation discussion.

Discussion... Current satellite is indicating a widespread marine
layer pushing across the entirety of coos county, northern curry
county, and filling into douglas county from the coast and
from the north. Expect this marine layer to make it to roseburg
by daybreak. Meanwhile, some marine fog and stratus are building
in from brookings and moving both north and south off the coast.

It remains to be seen if the push will move onto the coast, but it
wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. The rest of southern oregon
and northern california continue to experience clear skies.

The thermal trough has weakened a bit, but our overall area of
high pressure remains over the area. Our warm and dry weather
pattern will continue through Tuesday before a front moves over
the area. Models have come into great agreement regarding this
frontal system, so have blended them, and introduced at least a
slight chance for precipitation across the entirety of the west
side, with the better chances of measureable precipitation
occurring at the coast and along the coastal range. The other
major change to the forecast was to drop high temperatures on
Wednesday. We no longer look like we're going to get into the
upper 80s to mid 90s with this system. Model guidance is showing
considerable lower temperatures (down to the mid 70s west side and
upper 60s to low 70s east side). Have trended the forecast down to
better match guidance. That being said, we're still on the high
end of guidance, and further trending may be needed.

Have taken a look at thunderstorm parameters, and they don't seem
to really be lining up for this event. This means that this front
is more typically like what one might see in the mid to late fall,
rather than late summer. That being said, we aren't expecting
thunderstorms, but we are also not expecting wetting rains. Still,
any precipitation can help keep our fire season rather light (as
compared to previous years).

After this front moves through, the area of high pressure returns,
and we return to a more typical august warm and dry pattern with
light breezy winds in the afternoons. -schaaf
fire weather... Updated 200 am pdt Monday 19 august 2019... Warm
and dry conditions are expected across the area for the next couple
of days. Temperatures will become slightly warmer on Tuesday with
typical humidity values and winds on Monday and Tuesday.

Then, a front will move across the area on Wednesday. This front
will not bring increased cloud cover and higher humidities to the
entire area, and some light drizzle or rain will be possible for
areas west of the cascades on Wednesday. The best chance for
precipitation, however, will be at the coast and west of the coast
range. That being said, this front is not going to bring wetting
rains anywhere. This front is also not expected to bring
thunderstorms to the area, but a few cumulus build-ups could be
possible east of the cascades on Wednesday.

The breeziest days will be Wednesday and Thursday this week, but the
higher humidity values (Thursday trending toward typical, dry,
august humidities) should preclude any need for headlines or other
products. After Wednesday, a return to more typical conditions for
this time of year is expected for the rest of the forecast. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Mnf bms nsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 20 mi55 min 63°F4 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi79 min N 2.9 G 4.1 53°F1016 hPa
SNTO3 28 mi85 min Calm 64°F 1017 hPa59°F
46128 32 mi55 min N 1.9 57°F 56°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR17 mi59 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F57°F81%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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N11----Calm--Calm----N5W3W3N3N3CalmN5
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N18------N10NW5NW3--CalmCalmCalm--SE4CalmNE7

Tide / Current Tables for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:55 AM PDT     6.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:14 AM PDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:48 PM PDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:40 PM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.25.25.96.25.84.93.62.31.30.811.72.84.15.266.15.74.83.82.82.22.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:01 AM PDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:35 AM PDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM PDT     5.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:01 PM PDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.74.85.665.74.93.82.51.40.80.71.32.43.74.95.765.64.83.82.721.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.