Winchester Bay, OR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winchester Bay, OR

June 14, 2024 9:06 PM PDT (04:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM
Moonrise 12:48 PM   Moonset 12:41 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.

PZZ300 834 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 14 2024

Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - North winds and steep seas will diminish south of gold beach this evening. Saturday will see calmer seas early in the day. A weak thermal trough will rebuild Saturday evening, building steeper seas south of port orford through the day Sunday. Calmer seas are expected early on Monday before a broad thermal trough develops.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester Bay, OR
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Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 150405 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 905 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

DISCUSSION
Our forecast area just missed out on thunderstorms earlier this evening. Lightning strikes had developed in the Surprise Valley of Modoc County and across Harney County along a cold front. For southwest/south central Oregon and far northern California, the main weather story will be below normal temperatures and a possible freeze east of the Cascades this Father's Day "weekend".

Inland areas will see temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Normal lows east of the Cascades this time of year are in the lower 40s. A secondary trough could bring clouds and enough wind to many areas early Saturday morning keeping temperatures above freezing across the eastside valleys. It looks like Sunday morning (Father's Day) will be colder due to less cloud cover and less wind. Therefore, we have a freeze watch in effect for Sunday morning. The cooler than normal conditions will continue into Monday and it's possible that freezing conditions could occur again Monday morning east of the Cascades.
Sandler

AVIATION
15/00Z TAFs
High clouds and clear visibilities are supporting continued VFR conditions across northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Gusty winds continue over the Rogue Valley and areas east of the Cascades, but will calm into the evening. Cloud cover will develop overnight, and areas of MVFR ceilings are possible but remain unlikely (10-30% over areas west of the Cascades through the night). Winds pick up across the area near the end of the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 830 PM Friday, June 14, 2024...Northerly winds will diminish overnight with lighter winds and lower seas early Saturday. Winds will increase late Saturday afternoon and evening south of Port Orford with steeper seas developing especially near the California border. The steeper seas and gustier winds will continue in this area into Sunday.
Sandler

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 503 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024/

Updated AVIATION discussion

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.

The weather in the short term could be considered the last bit of spring for the year, with temperatures around 10 degrees below normal during the weekend, then higher uncertainty with a potential for further cooling on Monday. Currently increasing high clouds are associated with a dry front approaching this evening. This will bring a push of mid-level (bases at 4500-6500 ft msl) stratocumulus clouds into southwest Oregon late this evening into Saturday morning. This layer looks to be sufficiently deep to spill over the Umpqua Divide into Josephine and Jackson counties.

We will experience cooling, breezy afternoon westerly winds, and fair high weather clouds across the area, with the impacts on Saturday from a trough centered near the canadian border largely occurring north of our area. The mid-level clouds will linger longest, until almost noon, for northern portions of Coos and Douglas counties.

A weaker marine push will follow Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a thinning of the high clouds. This will aid cooling. A Freeze Watch has been issued for most of our area east of the Cascades for Saturday night. In around 25% of years, the east side will have a freeze this late into June. Meantime, of course, it will also be cold on Sunday morning on the west side with lows in the lower to mid 40s expected to be common.

Uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon is higher than usual. A stronger front rotating around the slow-moving low in the Pacific Northwest is expected to weaken as it tracks inland. The strength and positioning of this wave have a wide range of solutions among the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members. The forecast leans slightly wetter than the NBM solution, with a widespread slight chance to chance probability of light rain in order to highlight the risk of an honest to goodness rainfall, especially west of the Cascades, with the highest probability during late Sunday evening into early Monday morning.
The operational version of the GFS leans toward the wetter side of the solutions, a little wetter than our forecast, while the weaker ECMWF is more representative of the NBM. We will be watching this closely for potential adjustments as data updates.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday night.

The upper low is expected to gradually move eastward Monday night. Then, Tuesday through Friday, models indicate weak trough to near zonal flow over the region with a high pressure ridge offshore.

With this pattern expect daytime temperatures to trend warmer (becoming slightly above normal) and generally dry conditions.
Overnight low temperatures will be cool to mild Monday night/Tuesday morning, with a potential for areas of frost conditions in valleys east of the Cascades. For Monday night/Tuesday morning, National Blend of Models indicates a 50-60% chance for low temperatures in the mid 30s in valleys east of the Cascades (Klamath Falls, Lakeview and Alturas) with a 20-25% chance for low temperatures down to 32.
Areas in northern Klamath County, near Chemult, have a higher chance (60-80%) for freezing conditions (32 deg and below) during this period. Overnight/morning low temperatures will trend warmer Tuesday night through late in the week. Northerly winds maybe gusty during the afternoons/evenings for areas along the coast as a surface thermal trough builds beginning Monday night into Tuesday.
Otherwise, expect typical diurnal breezes across the area.

AVIATION
14/18Z TAFs...High clouds and clear visibilities are supporting continued VFR conditions across northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Gusty winds continue over the Rogue Valley and areas east of the Cascades, but will calm into the evening. Cloud cover will develop overnight, and areas of MVFR ceilings are possible but remain unlikely (10-30% over areas west of the Cascades through the night). Winds pick up across the area near the end of the TAF period. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Friday, June 14, 2024
Northerly winds continue to build steep seas south of Gold Beach this afternoon as a thermal trough weakens. A Small Craft Advisory will remain over these waters through 11 PM tonight.

Seas will be calm to start off the weekend, with slight (10-30%)
precipitation chances north of Cape Blanco through the day Saturday.
A weak thermal trough will return Saturday evening and rebuild steep seas south of Ophir. A Small Craft issue is in place for Saturday at 5 PM through Sunday at 11 PM to cover this expected period of steep seas.

Activity will continue through the weekend and into next week, but the timing and sea state forecast will both benefit from extra guidance. Another upper level disturbance is expected to move over the area, bring more slight precipitation chances (10-20%) over and wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts over all waters Sunday into Monday morning. A wider thermal trough is forecast to build on Monday evening and remain into midweek, bringing wind-built steep seas to most if not all waters and gusts of near 30 kts south of Gold Beach.
Long-term probabilistic guidance currently has low (10-30%) chances of waves over 9 feet limited to Brookings and farther south through next week, so anything more than steep seas is not currently expected. -TAD

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for ORZ029>031.

CA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 20 mi41 min 55°F4 ft
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 24 mi91 minW 2.9G5.1 30.19
SNTO3 28 mi157 minNNE 4.1 58°F 30.2156°F


Wind History for No Ports station near this location
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KOTH SOUTHWEST OREGON RGNL,OR 18 sm10 minNNW 0610 smOvercast55°F50°F82%30.19
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Wind History graph: OTH
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Tide / Current for Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon
   
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Entrance
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Fri -- 01:17 AM PDT     2.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:40 AM PDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:53 PM PDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:47 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:55 PM PDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
2.9
1
am
2.7
2
am
2.7
3
am
3.1
4
am
3.6
5
am
4.1
6
am
4.4
7
am
4.5
8
am
4.2
9
am
3.5
10
am
2.8
11
am
2
12
pm
1.4
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
1.5
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
3.1
5
pm
4.1
6
pm
5
7
pm
5.6
8
pm
5.8
9
pm
5.5
10
pm
4.9
11
pm
4


Tide / Current for Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon
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Reedsport
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Fri -- 01:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:38 AM PDT     2.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:46 AM PDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:14 PM PDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:59 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:01 PM PDT     5.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
3.4
1
am
2.7
2
am
2.3
3
am
2.2
4
am
2.6
5
am
3.1
6
am
3.8
7
am
4.2
8
am
4.3
9
am
4.1
10
am
3.5
11
am
2.8
12
pm
2
1
pm
1.4
2
pm
1.1
3
pm
1.2
4
pm
1.8
5
pm
2.7
6
pm
3.7
7
pm
4.7
8
pm
5.4
9
pm
5.6
10
pm
5.4
11
pm
4.8


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Medford, OR,




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