Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winchester Bay, OR
March 29, 2024 4:41 AM PDT (11:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:00 AM Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 11:47 PM Moonset 7:48 AM |
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday - .peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 216 Am Pdt Fri Mar 29 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Winds and seas gradually improve this morning, but seas will remain steep through tonight. Gusty north winds develop later today, bringing the return of steep to very steep and hazardous wind driven seas through the weekend and into early next week.
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 290528 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1028 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
DISCUSSION
Showers are continuing to stream NNE across the region this evening as low pressure spinning off of the WA Olympic Peninsula continues to provide the ingredients for unsettled weather. These showers have lightened in both intensity and coverage this evening as the low starts to weaken, but shower activity is expected to continue in one form or another for the next few days as the low starts to move south down the west coast.
Activity will diminish overnight but then start again late Friday morning into the afternoon as the low wraps around moisture and sends it NNW into the region. Snow levels around 3,000 feet early Friday will rise again in the afternoon to 4,000-4,500 feet.
Otherwise, expect tomorrow to be a few degrees warmer than today after a cooler morning, particularly west of the Cascades where we'll see more breaks in cloud cover. Breezy winds this morning and afternoon have abated and will continue to be fairly calm Friday as they turn offshore. For more details, please see the previous discussion below. -CSP
.AVIATION (29/06Z TAFs)...Mainly VFR conditions prevail with widespread terrain obscurations across the region. Areas of MVFR ceilings are present, mainly associated with isolated to scattered showers passing through the area tonight. Shower activity will wind down for most areas away from the immediate coast/marine waters after midnight. There should be enough lingering VFR/MVFR stratus around tonight to preclude fog development in area valleys tonight.
Winds will calm overnight and then become slightly breezy once again by mid morning into the early evening. -Schaaf/BR-y
MARINE
Updated 800 PM Thursday, March 28, 2024..Moderate to strong southwest winds will persist into the evening, with brief periods of gales possible north of Cape Blanco. A high and steep swell group is moving through the waters this afternoon, peaking around 15 to 18 ft today. Conditions will slowly improve late tonight as winds diminish, and while seas will gradually subside tonight, steep seas are expected for much of the day Friday.
A pattern change is expected Friday with winds becoming northerly Friday evening and increasing on Saturday. These northerly winds are likely to stick around into the first half of next week, resulting in periods of steep to very steep wind driven seas, especially south of Cape Blanco. /BR-y
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 245 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
SHORT TERM...Through Monday morning (3/31)...A low pressure system lingering over the Pacific Ocean is continuing to bring active weather to northern California and southern Oregon, although the impacts from this system are decreasing.
Southwesterly flow aloft is continuing to bring light to moderate rainfall to the Oregon coast, especially to areas south of Cape Blanco. Storm cells with 40-45 dBZ reflectivity will pop up occasionally around Brookings, but no lightning strikes have been sensed since this morning and reflectivity drops quickly as these cells move over land. Lighter scattered showers are continuing to stream over inland areas.
While snow showers are continuing to move over the Cascades, western Siskiyou County, and the Mount Shasta area, road webcams and radar imagery are indicating light activity in these areas. So while caution is encouraged while traveling through these areas as active weather continues, there is no need for continuing Winter Weather Advisories. As of the posting of this discussion, these products have been cancelled.
Gusty winds are moving over elevated terrain, especially over areas east of the Cascades. Stations across Lake County and in Weed are reporting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. These winds are expected to continue into the afternoon but should calm quickly this evening.
The low pressure system will start to move to the south towards California tonight, and through the day Friday. While this will bring an end to widespread activity, scattered showers will still be possible as moisture wraps around the system and returns to the area from the south and the east. This will bring slight precipitation chances (25-50%) to Siskiyou, Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties during the day. Showers will have to get past the Cascades to reach west side areas.
The pattern will start to transition from active to stable on Saturday. Northerly flow aloft will help to keep temperatures close to seasonal norms. Gusty winds may develop over elevated terrain Saturday afternoon and persist into the evening, but these winds are not expected to reach advisory thresholds right now. The week will begin with atmospheric stability and above average temperatures across the area. -TAD
Extended Discussion...(Monday through Thursday)...It will remain dry through Tuesday with milder temperatures in the afternoon for most interior locations. The ridge axis shifts east as an upper trough approaches from the west, but the front will remain offshore through Tuesday evening.
The front will reach the coast late Tuesday night and could bring a slight chance of rain to the coastal counties and Douglas County by early Wednesday morning, with dry weather likely elsewhere.
The upper trough will push closer towards the area Wednesday and the operational models show what could be convective feedback with QPF fields increasing in northern Cal, Cascades and eastside. The individual ensemble members show a variety of solutions, with the majority of them keeping most of the precipitation along and west of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Beyond next Wednesday, the evidence is still pointing towards troughiness over the Pac NW which could carry over into the start of next weekend, leading to more cool and unsettled weather.
-Petrucelli
MARINE
Updated 100 PM Thursday, March 28, 2024
Moderate to strong southwest winds will persist into the evening, with brief periods of gales possible north of Cape Blanco. A high and steep swell group is moving through the waters this afternoon, peaking around 15 to 18 ft today. Conditions will slowly improve late tonight as winds diminish, and while seas will gradually subside tonight, steep seas are expected for much of the day Friday.
A pattern change is expected Friday with winds becoming northerly Friday evening and increasing on Saturday. These northerly winds are likely to stick around into the first half of next week, resulting in periods of steep to very steep wind driven seas, especially south of Cape Blanco. /BR-y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1028 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Updated Aviation Discussion
DISCUSSION
Showers are continuing to stream NNE across the region this evening as low pressure spinning off of the WA Olympic Peninsula continues to provide the ingredients for unsettled weather. These showers have lightened in both intensity and coverage this evening as the low starts to weaken, but shower activity is expected to continue in one form or another for the next few days as the low starts to move south down the west coast.
Activity will diminish overnight but then start again late Friday morning into the afternoon as the low wraps around moisture and sends it NNW into the region. Snow levels around 3,000 feet early Friday will rise again in the afternoon to 4,000-4,500 feet.
Otherwise, expect tomorrow to be a few degrees warmer than today after a cooler morning, particularly west of the Cascades where we'll see more breaks in cloud cover. Breezy winds this morning and afternoon have abated and will continue to be fairly calm Friday as they turn offshore. For more details, please see the previous discussion below. -CSP
.AVIATION (29/06Z TAFs)...Mainly VFR conditions prevail with widespread terrain obscurations across the region. Areas of MVFR ceilings are present, mainly associated with isolated to scattered showers passing through the area tonight. Shower activity will wind down for most areas away from the immediate coast/marine waters after midnight. There should be enough lingering VFR/MVFR stratus around tonight to preclude fog development in area valleys tonight.
Winds will calm overnight and then become slightly breezy once again by mid morning into the early evening. -Schaaf/BR-y
MARINE
Updated 800 PM Thursday, March 28, 2024..Moderate to strong southwest winds will persist into the evening, with brief periods of gales possible north of Cape Blanco. A high and steep swell group is moving through the waters this afternoon, peaking around 15 to 18 ft today. Conditions will slowly improve late tonight as winds diminish, and while seas will gradually subside tonight, steep seas are expected for much of the day Friday.
A pattern change is expected Friday with winds becoming northerly Friday evening and increasing on Saturday. These northerly winds are likely to stick around into the first half of next week, resulting in periods of steep to very steep wind driven seas, especially south of Cape Blanco. /BR-y
PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 245 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024/
SHORT TERM...Through Monday morning (3/31)...A low pressure system lingering over the Pacific Ocean is continuing to bring active weather to northern California and southern Oregon, although the impacts from this system are decreasing.
Southwesterly flow aloft is continuing to bring light to moderate rainfall to the Oregon coast, especially to areas south of Cape Blanco. Storm cells with 40-45 dBZ reflectivity will pop up occasionally around Brookings, but no lightning strikes have been sensed since this morning and reflectivity drops quickly as these cells move over land. Lighter scattered showers are continuing to stream over inland areas.
While snow showers are continuing to move over the Cascades, western Siskiyou County, and the Mount Shasta area, road webcams and radar imagery are indicating light activity in these areas. So while caution is encouraged while traveling through these areas as active weather continues, there is no need for continuing Winter Weather Advisories. As of the posting of this discussion, these products have been cancelled.
Gusty winds are moving over elevated terrain, especially over areas east of the Cascades. Stations across Lake County and in Weed are reporting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. These winds are expected to continue into the afternoon but should calm quickly this evening.
The low pressure system will start to move to the south towards California tonight, and through the day Friday. While this will bring an end to widespread activity, scattered showers will still be possible as moisture wraps around the system and returns to the area from the south and the east. This will bring slight precipitation chances (25-50%) to Siskiyou, Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties during the day. Showers will have to get past the Cascades to reach west side areas.
The pattern will start to transition from active to stable on Saturday. Northerly flow aloft will help to keep temperatures close to seasonal norms. Gusty winds may develop over elevated terrain Saturday afternoon and persist into the evening, but these winds are not expected to reach advisory thresholds right now. The week will begin with atmospheric stability and above average temperatures across the area. -TAD
Extended Discussion...(Monday through Thursday)...It will remain dry through Tuesday with milder temperatures in the afternoon for most interior locations. The ridge axis shifts east as an upper trough approaches from the west, but the front will remain offshore through Tuesday evening.
The front will reach the coast late Tuesday night and could bring a slight chance of rain to the coastal counties and Douglas County by early Wednesday morning, with dry weather likely elsewhere.
The upper trough will push closer towards the area Wednesday and the operational models show what could be convective feedback with QPF fields increasing in northern Cal, Cascades and eastside. The individual ensemble members show a variety of solutions, with the majority of them keeping most of the precipitation along and west of the Cascades Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Beyond next Wednesday, the evidence is still pointing towards troughiness over the Pac NW which could carry over into the start of next weekend, leading to more cool and unsettled weather.
-Petrucelli
MARINE
Updated 100 PM Thursday, March 28, 2024
Moderate to strong southwest winds will persist into the evening, with brief periods of gales possible north of Cape Blanco. A high and steep swell group is moving through the waters this afternoon, peaking around 15 to 18 ft today. Conditions will slowly improve late tonight as winds diminish, and while seas will gradually subside tonight, steep seas are expected for much of the day Friday.
A pattern change is expected Friday with winds becoming northerly Friday evening and increasing on Saturday. These northerly winds are likely to stick around into the first half of next week, resulting in periods of steep to very steep wind driven seas, especially south of Cape Blanco. /BR-y
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-370.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) | 20 mi | 46 min | 52°F | 14 ft | ||||
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR | 24 mi | 66 min | ESE 1.9G | 29.84 | ||||
SNTO3 | 28 mi | 72 min | 0 | 40°F | 29.86 | 40°F | ||
46128 | 32 mi | 102 min | 53°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KOTH SOUTHWEST OREGON RGNL,OR | 18 sm | 45 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 43°F | 41°F | 93% | 29.85 |
Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM PDT 6.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 09:41 AM PDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:17 PM PDT 4.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:09 PM PDT 2.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM PDT 6.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 09:41 AM PDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:17 PM PDT 4.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:09 PM PDT 2.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Entrance, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet
12 am |
4.7 |
1 am |
5.7 |
2 am |
6.4 |
3 am |
6.6 |
4 am |
6.2 |
5 am |
5.2 |
6 am |
3.8 |
7 am |
2.3 |
8 am |
1.1 |
9 am |
0.4 |
10 am |
0.2 |
11 am |
0.7 |
12 pm |
1.6 |
1 pm |
2.7 |
2 pm |
3.8 |
3 pm |
4.5 |
4 pm |
4.9 |
5 pm |
4.8 |
6 pm |
4.3 |
7 pm |
3.7 |
8 pm |
3.1 |
9 pm |
2.8 |
10 pm |
3 |
11 pm |
3.5 |
Reedsport
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:57 AM PDT 6.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:02 AM PDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM PDT 4.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:40 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM PDT 2.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:57 AM PDT 6.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM PDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM PDT Moonset
Fri -- 11:02 AM PDT 0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:23 PM PDT 4.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:40 PM PDT Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM PDT 2.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet
12 am |
3 |
1 am |
4.2 |
2 am |
5.3 |
3 am |
6.1 |
4 am |
6.4 |
5 am |
6.1 |
6 am |
5.2 |
7 am |
4 |
8 am |
2.6 |
9 am |
1.4 |
10 am |
0.5 |
11 am |
0.2 |
12 pm |
0.5 |
1 pm |
1.3 |
2 pm |
2.4 |
3 pm |
3.5 |
4 pm |
4.3 |
5 pm |
4.7 |
6 pm |
4.7 |
7 pm |
4.2 |
8 pm |
3.5 |
9 pm |
2.8 |
10 pm |
2.4 |
11 pm |
2.4 |
Medford, OR,
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