NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 12:30 AM EDT...Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery continues to show high cirrus clouds across the Mid-Hudson Valley and across western New England. Valley fog can still develop through this morning, especially for the Schoharie Valley. The current forecast is doing well through this morning so no changes were needed, see previous discussions below for more details...

UPDATE
No significant changes with this update. Temperatures continue to cool into the 60s(lower elevations) and 50s(higher elevations) with tranquil conditions late this evening.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0746]...Satellite imagery shows high level cirrus clouds in place from around the Hudson Valley east, with some thicker mid level clouds farther east into New England.
Some of these thicker clouds could eventually push westward into western New England overnight, which may limit fog potential there. Farther west across eastern NY patchy fog is more favored with only thin cirrus clouds overhead. Rain-free conditions will prevail again tonight.

While tranquility persists here, just off the New England Coast, a coastal low pressure system has continued to organize and deepen throughout the day as it slowly inches farther north and slightly west. Being on the back side of this system, the only true impacts that have been felt thus far as a result of it have been the spreading of broken cirrus bands especially into our New England zones. Of course, with subsidence juxtaposing vertical motion, coverage has remained limited. However, through tomorrow morning, clouds will gradually increase from east to west as the aforementioned system tracks farther north and retrogrades closer to the New England Coast. The most extensive coverage will primarily lie to the east of the Hudson River courtesy of upper ridging and surface high pressure remaining nearby aiding to keep areas to the west mainly clear.
Radiational cooling will therefore aid in the development of patchy fog for some sheltered and low-lying areas. Low temperatures tonight will fall largely to the mid to upper 50s across the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The coastal low continues to spin just off the New England Coast tomorrow, allowing clouds to continue to spread westward. Skies are not anticipated to be completely obscured, however, as high pressure and weak ridging in the Great Lakes continues to pose counteracting subsidence. Therefore, coverage was maximized at partly to mostly cloudy with less coverage to the west of the Hudson and more to the east.

Additionally, throughout the day tomorrow, a side-door cold front will gradually sink south towards the region from southeast Quebec/northeast New England. Little additional moisture than that which will be introduced from the cyclonic flow of the adjacent low will accompany this front. And while it will provide some additional forcing for ascent, little if any precipitation is expected as a result of its southwestward track into the region. It is possible that an isolated, light shower or two develop in the Upper-Hudson Valley and/or Southern Vermont tomorrow afternoon along its progression, however, with forecast soundings showing fairly dry low-level conditions, its possible that rain could evaporate before reaching the ground.
For now, excluded slight chance PoPs, though this could change in coming updates. High temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than today with mid to upper 70s below 1000 ft and upper 60s to low 70s both above and within much of our New England counties courtesy of the anticipated, more extensive cloud cover.

The aforementioned front continues to sink through the region Friday night into Saturday morning, maintaining partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. As such, patchy fog will be highly limited Friday night and lows will fall primarily to the low to upper 50s. The aforementioned front will wash out throughout the day Saturday, but with the coastal low still within reach, a shortwave perturbation will rotate about its western periphery and through the region, allowing for some scattered showers in southern Vermont before daybreak. Additional showers are possible east of the Hudson Saturday as the low sinks back south and west, so maintained slight chance PoPs mainly for western New England. A weak shortwave disturbance will also pass by to our west throughout the day Saturday, but limited forcing should keep showers at bay. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of mid 70s possible in valley areas.

The coastal low will continue to track farther into the Atlantic Saturday night, reinforcing widespread dry conditions across the region in time for upper-level ridging to begin approaching from the west. Low temperatures Saturday night will fall to the low to upper 50s with pockets of upper 40s above 2000 ft.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Another stretch of dry weather is in store for at least the first half of the long term forecast period with cooler temperatures to accompany. Upper-level ridging begins to build north and east from the Ohio Valley Sunday, becoming situated across the region by Sunday night. Surface high pressure extending south from Quebec will pair with ridging aloft to ensure dry conditions through at least Monday. Highs Sunday will range primarily from the upper 60s to low 70s before cooling to the mid/upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of low 60s across higher terrain Monday.

The remainder of the long term forecast period contains some uncertainty as it pertains to a frontal system looking to approach the region from the Great Lakes. Timing seems to be the most significant difference amongst sources of guidance, though the track of the low also remains somewhat uncertain at this time. Some medium range models indicate the system's impact beginning as early as Tuesday morning where as others implicate Tuesday night as the onset of showers. This system does, however, look to be the next potential chance for more widespread showers across the region Wednesday into Thursday.

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be fairly similar at mid/upper 60s to pockets of near or just above 70 with low 60s possible at higher elevations.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

While VFR conditions begin this TAF period, expecting deteriorating conditions through sunrise for the terminals thanks to ongoing radiational cooling conditions and incoming stratus from New England. Latest GOES16 night fog channel shows a low stratus deck resulting in MVFR cigs tracking from west to east through MA/CT and is already near the CT river valley.
Expecting low stratus to reach PSF by 07 - 09 UTC leading to MVFR cigs with MVFR cigs continuing through 13-14 UTC. Some intermittent MVFR vis is also possible from fog as seen in upstream observations in New England so included that in the TEMPO groups. However, we have higher confidence on reduced flying conditions from lower ceilings than visibility at PSF.

Latest GOES16 night fog channel shows fog already developing in the Hudson Valley but as thus far avoided the GFL, PSF and ALB.
With a zero dew point depressions at GFL, expecting fog to develop within the next 1-2 hours resulting in IFR vis/cigs that persist through 12-13 UTC. Less confident at ALB and POU where dew point depressions remain 2-5 degrees and with the ENX VAD wind profile showing breezy winds not far off the surface, it's possible that fog struggles to develop. However, given KMGJ has already observed MVFR vis from fog, we have higher confidence for MVF fog/cigs to develop at POU so included TEMPO group there 06 - 09 UTC before MVFR conditions prevail through 12-13 UTC.
Less confident in MVFR conditions at ALB given high dew point depression but given latest satellite trends and continued radiational cooling through sunrise, included a TEMPO for MVFR conditions 09 - 12 UTC.

IFR/MVFR conditions early this morning should improve and return to VFR at all terminals by 12-14 UTC. VFR conditions prevail through the day with just some diurnally driven stratus clouds at 4-6kft developing by 16 - 17 UTC as we reach out convective temperature. Some isolated showers are not completely ruled out this afternoon but given uncertainty on exact location, only include VCSH at GFL and PSF. VFR conditions through 00 - 03 UTC at all terminals but then MVFR stratus clouds look to redevelop by or shortly after 03 UTC for POU, PSF and GFL.

Winds will be light and variable through sunrise. Then, winds become east-northeast reaching 5-8 kt with gusts up to 15kts by 14 - 16 UTC at all terminals. Winds turn light and variable by 23 - 01 UTC.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.