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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 338 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain showers likely early, then rain late this morning. Rain showers likely this afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Rain showers likely early, then snow and rain showers likely late in the evening. Snow after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KALY 101149 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 649 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strong storm system will impact the region today into tomorrow with precipitation starting out as rain, which may be locally heavy. Many areas will see a changeover to snow for tonight into tomorrow, with some moderate to heavy accumulation across the higher elevations. In the wake of this storm, colder, breezy and mainly dry weather is expected, although some northwestern areas will see some on and off lake effect snow showers.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 627 AM EST...Upper level ridging, now centered to the east over Atlantic Canada, continues to depart eastward.
Meanwhile, a strong positively tilted upper level trough is in place over the Mississippi Valley and it is also heading eastward. At the surface, the strong surface cold front ahead of this trough extends has just entered western NY and western PA and this will be heading towards our area for today.

Our region has been located within the southerly flow ahead of this front, both at the low levels and aloft. This mild southerly flow kept temps in the 40s to low 50s for the entire night for some locations. Some sheltered areas of the high terrain have been able to fall into the 30s, but most of the region has been well into the 40s or warmer. With the mild southerly breeze in place, temps will be warming this morning.

IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread clouds for much of the area. The upstream satellite imagery shows fairly widespread cloud cover thanks to the moist southerly flow ahead of the front, so skies look to remain mostly cloudy to overcast through the day today.

Radar imagery has been showing light showers moving across northern areas through the overnight. One batch of showers is still over the Adirondacks, with the steadier rainfall still well off to the west, as seen in MRMS imagery over western and central NY. While the morning will be fairly dry with some on and off showers, the trend will be for rainfall to become higher in coverage as the day progresses. Through the day today, p-type will just be plain rain, as temps both aloft and at the surface will be above freezing within the southerly flow ahead of the front.

Initially, rain will be light and intermittent for this morning and early afternoon, but it will become steadier and heavier by the late day hours. CAMs suggest the potential for the heaviest bursts will be across far southeastern areas for late today, where the low- level jet at 850 hpa will be exceeding 50 kts from the south- southwest. These far southeastern areas could even see a rumble of thunder, although the better chance for this could wind up being closer to the coastline.

The front will be crossing our area by the evening hours from west to east. It will start to slow down as it reaches our eastern zones thanks to a developing wave along the front, so it may not actually fully cross the entire area and will become stationary. Where this occurs has been a source of the uncertainty within the forecast, which has made exact p-type and QPF difficult to forecast with this system.

Temps today will be mild ahead of the front. Highs will range from the mid 40s in the Adirondacks to the mid 50s in the mid Hudson Valley. Once the front crosses, temps will begin falling, as a north to northwest wind develops behind the boundary.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The front will be stalled across our eastern zones or just east of the area for tonight into Monday. Meanwhile, low pressure will be forming along the front over the mid Atlantic States and slowly lifting northward along the front and stregthening.
Colder air will be rushing into the region behind the front for tonight. With the flow aloft parallel to the boundary, the front will be taking on anafront characteristics and the wave of low pressure will continue to allow for steady precip to occur across our area. As a result, precip will be continuous from this evening through the overnight and into the morning on Monday. As the low passes by to the east and deepens, it will enhance the precip on Monday morning, with some moderate to locally heavy precip expected right around the time of the morning commute on Monday. Precip will be tapering off towards the early to mid afternoon on Monday, as the wave lifts towards northern New England.

While all areas will be starting off as rain this evening, it will be changing to snow from west to east through the overnight. High terrain areas will be changing over before valley areas as well. By daybreak Monday, most areas will be snow, except for the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and far eastern VT. Snow ratios may be a little better for the high terrain, with a more wet snow expected in valley areas, where sfc temps may actually be 33-34 degrees for much of the morning. Despite these temps still above freezing, the steady and heavy nature of precip will allow for accumulation. High terrain areas look to see 5 to 10 inches of accumulation (locally up to a foot in southern VT and perhaps highest peaks of the central Adirondacks and eastern Catskills). Meanwhile, valley areas will see anywhere from a slushy coating to 4 or 5 inches, depending on how far north and west one goes. The Capital Region has seen a big jump in forecast totals. While only a coating to an inch was expected yesterday, CAMs suggest that the heavy dump on Monday morning could allow for at least several inches, with 3 to 5 inches in our latest forecasts at this time. There remains uncertainty, as a quick changeover and heavy snow rates could allow for this pile up quickly, so this is still somewhat low confidence at this time. The trend in the guidance has been further east and colder, so confidence in at least some impact in valley areas is there at this time, although the exact high end of totals can be debated. Because of this, have gone with Winter Weather Advisories in many valley areas, with Winter Storm Warnings for the Catskills, Adirondacks and Southern Greens. The Helderbergs, Taconics and Berkshires are in an Advisory now, although some totals are close to warning level and upgrades for these zones can't be ruled out.

Temps will be falling rapidly overnight through the 40s and into the 30s. They should hold in the low to mid 30s on Monday morning, before rising a little bit on Monday afternoon. As the storm departs, gusty west to northwest winds will develop on Monday afternoon, with some gusts of 30-45 mph possible. These winds will be sub- advisory, but with wet snow on trees limbs, can't rule out some downed limbs and power outages, especially for the high terrain.

It will remain breezy and chilly from Monday night through Tuesday. Some additional lake effect snow showers are possible for the western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, but additional amounts will be fairly light. After lows in the 20s on Monday night, highs on Tuesday will generally be in the 30s, with a mix of sun and clouds.

It will remain fairly quiet into Tuesday night, although a few additional snow showers are possible for the Adirondacks. Lows will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The long-term weather forecast period will continue to feature an El Nino-like pattern with mainly milder than normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions.

We start off the extended on Wednesday, where following the passage of a cold front and shortwave, a cold and dry air advection regime will be in place with lake effect snow showers ongoing impacting mainly the southwestern Adirondacks. While most areas are expected to remain dry, some isolated snow showers/flurries could reach as far east as the Capital Region on Wednesday. Lake effect snow showers will be rather short-lived however as a strong and broad surface high pressure system over the central U.S. will begin building into the area Wednesday night into Thursday effectively putting an end to the lake effect snow showers. Dry and tranquil weather conditions will be the story for the remainder of the long- term period or through Saturday as the aforementioned sfc high and positive/higher H500 geopotential heights build into the region from the west.

With normal highs in the upper 30s and normal lows in the lower 20s, temperature anomalies are expected to average out milder than normal for mid December standards for the balance of the long-term period.
Behind the cold fropa on Wednesday, high temperatures are only expected to top out in the upper 30s to lower 40s (near seasonable levels) along the river valleys, and upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher elevations. Thursday will be the coolest day of the long-term period with highs progged to hold in the 30s along the river valleys (20s higher elevations). On Friday, a return flow develops out of the south and temperatures warm/moderate to milder than normal levels with values in the mid to upper 40s along the river valleys and upper 30s to lower 40s along the river valleys. Mild temperatures continue into Saturday with highs expected to be in the low to mid 40s along the river valleys (mid to upper 30s higher elevations). Overnight lows Wednesday night are expected to be in the lower 20s along the river valleys with teens in the higher elevations. Thursday night, lows are expected to be in the 20s for most of the area. Friday and Saturday nights, lows are expected to be in the lower 30s along the river valleys (20s higher elevations).

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 12z Monday.....

Primary aviation concerns for the ALY terminals as a potent and dynamic late Autumn storm system approaches the region includes:

* Widespread MVFR to LIFR cigs and/or visibilities associated with the rain beginning this morning into this afternoon and persisting through the remainder of the 12z TAF cycle.

* Low level wind shear (LLWS) risks/potential this morning.

Deteriorating weather conditions to aviation operations will continue to take place over the next 6-9 hours as an impending dynamic and multi-hazard storm system closes in on the forecast area. The main concern for this morning will be patches the threat for low level wind shear (LLWS) as winds 2,000 feet AGL increases between 30-40 kts out of the south-southwest. The threat for LLWS is greatest over all of the TAF sites outside of KALB. Currently, VFR conditions are taking place at all of the terminals outside of KGFL, which is experiencing LIFR conditions due to mist/fog in the area.

Clouds are expected to continue to increase and lower in elevation through this morning. Rain associated with this strong storm system will begin to overspread the terminals from southwest to northeast this morning into this afternoon. Upon the rain's arrival, flying conditions from visibilities and/or ceilings are expected to range between MVFR to LIFR. MVFR to LIFR conditions will then persist through the remainder of the 12z TAF cycle as highlighted above.
Rain could become moderate to heavy at times from the afternoon into the nighttime hours on Sunday, which would result in the more extreme conditions (i.e. LIFR visibilities/ceilings).

As far as winds, all of the TAF sites outside of KALB are experiencing light and variable to calm winds, hence the threat for LLWS at all of the other TAF sites tonight through this morning.
Later this morning and especially this afternoon, winds at the other terminals will pick up out of the south-southwest between 5-10 kts.
By Sunday afternoon, winds could gusts at most of the TAF sites (maybe outside of KGFL) from 20-25 kts or so. Winds are expected to shift out of the northwest Sunday night amid the cold fropa with magnitudes/speeds between 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY
A storm system will bring a widespread rainfall to the region today into this evening/tonight before ending as a period of snow for later tonight into Monday. The trend has been for more snow and less rain thanks to an eastern shift in the model guidance so the threat for widespread flooding may be slightly lowering based off previous forecasts.

Although model guidance has slightly shifted the heavier totals eastward, total liquid equivalent will be between 1.25 and 3 inches, with the highest amounts expected across western New England. As a result of the rainfall, urban and small stream flooding is expected. Areas of poor drainage and within fields and other low lying places will see ponding and standing water.
Much of the eastern New York is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with a slight risk for excessive rainfall over much of western New England.

Some minor flooding on the main stem rivers is possible as well, based off the latest forecasts from the NERFC and MMEFS guidance, mainly for areas south and east of the Capital Region.
These current forecasts suggest some minor flooding is possible along portions of the Housatonic River, the Walloomsac River near North Bennington, Schoharie Creek at Gilboa, and the Rondout Creek at Rosendale. Should the rainfall amounts be closer to the higher side of forecast ranges, there is a possibility that moderate flood stage may be approached on the Hoosic River at Eagle Bridge and Williamstown, although all of these river forecasts may be too high if rain changes to snow earlier than anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ039>043-048>054-061-082>084.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ032-033-038-047-058-063.
MA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ001-025.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch from 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday evening for VTZ013>015.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ013- 014.

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Troy
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Sun -- 02:38 AM EST     3.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:21 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 PM EST     Moonset
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Sun -- 09:11 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
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