Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falmouth, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Update...Adjusted PoP based on latest radar and observational trends. Otherwise no significant changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion...Two areas of precip are moving thru the forecast area at this hour. To the north a band of light rain has developed and is sliding east southeast from the Lake Champlain area to the White Mtns. I think that upsloping winds are aiding in precip formation across the Upper CT River Valley where very light accumulations have been observed at HIE.
Farther east the opposite is occurring with downsloping leading to dry conditions or trace rainfall amounts.

The southern area of showers is more convective in nature and rainfall rates are slightly higher but not by much. Those showers have probably reached their northern extent at this hour...and will continue to slide eastward thru the morning hours.

By mid morning all of this precip will be exiting the forecast area to the east. Gradual clearing is anticipated from the north...and as a result high temps will be inverted across the region. The warmest temps near 70 will be along the Canadian border...with low 60s expected across much of southern NH.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Drier air will continue to filter into the area from the north...with clouds clearing from north to south. Just north of the retreating boundary hi-res guidance suggests that moisture pooling in easterly flow may lead to some areas of fog breaking out along the ME coast overnight. This is pretty low confidence because of model tendency to rush marine fog development...so at this time I have not added it to the forecast
On Sun
a little more sun and a little less onshore flow will lead to warmer temps than today. It should manage to climb to around 70 for most areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
1045 PM Long Term Forecast Update... Little change in the latest National Blend of Models forecast guidance. Main theme will be for gradually warming temperatures along with typical Summer afternoon showers/storms.

Previously...
Overview...

Temperatures start to rebound on Sunday in the wake of Saturday's front. A warming trend continues through the rest of the work week. A low pressure system likely passes north of New England on Wednesday, bringing and increased chance for thunderstorms. A cold front approaches from the west late week, likely arriving Thursday night to Friday night with an increased chance of showers, followed by relatively cooler and drier conditions.

Details...

Seasonably cool conditions are likely on Sunday with more sunshine as high pressure passes through Atlantic Canada. The high brings mainly dry conditions early in the week. A southerly flow sets up late Monday as the high moves off to the east, with temps warming progressively through mid to late week and peaking on Thursday in the high 80s to possibly low 90s.

A weak area of low pressure likely passes north of New England on Wednesday. This brings an increased chance for showers and storms across the higher terrain and northern areas Wednesday afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are possible elsewhere in an increasingly humid airmass, but are likely to remain more localized as the more organized forcing passes to the north closer to the low.

Another low pressure system likely moves through the Great Lakes mid to late week, with an associated cold front approaching New England from the west during this timeframe.
Moisture continues to increase ahead of this front on Thursday, with dew points likely starting to push into the 70s. With the combination of rising temps and dew points, heat indices may approach the mid 90s by Thursday across southern locations.
Additionally, airmass showers and storms are likely again on Thursday, especially across the higher terrain.

The front likely passes through sometime in the late Thursday night to Friday night timeframe. Storms are expected with the front, but the timing of the frontal passage will be a determining factor in how widespread or organized these storms would be. Drier air returns behind the front by either Friday or Saturday, with seasonable temperatures looking more likely for early next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...SHRA will continue to lift north into southern portions of the forecast area this morning. Despite that CIGs are generally expected to remain VFR. Across southern NH terminals some MVFR CIGs are possible thru the afternoon near the stalled front. Starting mid morning drier air will begin to filter in from the north. Any MVFR conditions will become VFR by late afternoon. Tonight some hi-res guidance hints at fog developing near the coast...but given the tendency for models to rush this I have very low confidence in this outcome.

Long Term...VFR likely prevails during the daytime from Sunday through midweek next week, with nighttime valley fog possible each night. Marine fog is possible at RKD by midweek as the airmass moistens. Chances for scattered afternoon showers and storms increase across interior terminals starting Wednesday and continue through late week. More widespread showers and storms are possible late Thursday or Friday.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds thru Sun. Showers will traverse along a stalled frontal boundary today and locally visibility may drop below 3 miles in the heaviest showers.

Long Term...High pressure gradually moves eastward across the North Atlantic through midweek next week with generally fair conditions. A cold front approaches late in the week, with SCA conditions possible in southwesterly flow ahead of the front by late Wednesday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.