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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 300 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.

ANZ100 300 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm breezy westerly winds continue tonight as low pressure pulls away from the waters. Winds and seas are expected to remain elevated in sca thresholds through midweek before finally subsiding for the end of the week.

FXUS61 KGYX 112015 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 315 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Rain and snow taper off through the night with some upslope snow showers lingering through most of the night. Tomorrow will feature much quieter conditions before upslope showers return for Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure then brings warmer temperatures for the end of the week and weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/
Cold front is working thru the forecast area from southwest to northeast at this hour. Behind it flow turning northwesterly will lead to upslope clouds and snow showers thru the overnight period
Additional snowfall totals will be light
so I have dropped the winter headlines.

With CAA and gradient flow continuing overnight I favored raw 2 m temp guidance for lows. A gradual decrease in temps overnight is expected...eventually getting down to mid to upper 20s. The air mass is also not particularly dry behind the front...so the typical rapid drying before freezing temps is less likely. I anticipate that some standing water and runoff will refreeze overnight and lead to patchy slick spots on untreated surfaces.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Winds become more southwesterly Tue ahead of an approaching reinforcing cold front. Temps will be seasonable during the day and a little breezy.

The cold front itself approaches the CT River Valley in the evening. Hi-res guidance is bullish on convective showers along the leading edge. Temps will support snow showers locally. What is more uncertain is how well they hold together into the forecast area. A cold front approaching from the west typically sees showers dry out as they cross the Green Mtns and then the White Mtns...leaving more light snow or flurries by the time they reach ME
For now I will keep PoP higher in the mtns
but these may need to be extended south of the mtns if models ramp up snow squall parameter forecasts.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Upper level low pressure will be passing across the area Wednesday to start the extended period. This is reflected at the surface with a cold front crossing the area by Wednesday morning bringing a return of upslope snow showers and northwesterly winds through the day. Model soundings show good mixing setting up with froude numbers greater than 10 indicating unblocked flow, which could sustain snow showers into the interior given sufficient moisture. Isentropic analysis indicates a sharp drop in low level moisture behind the front with return flow moisture beginning to mix in from the north after sunset. This will likely limit any showers that develop to remain light. Another wave of moisture pushes in from the north Thursday afternoon bringing another round of upslope snow showers as the upper level trof slides to the southeast.

The end of the week looks more uncertain as high pressure settles to our southwest, directing a few shortwaves across the Great Lakes and into New England. The positioning and interaction of these shortwaves is still uncertain, however a few periods of lightly unsettled conditions looks possible over the weekend.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term
A few pockets of MVFR conditions remain
mainly tied to upsloping flow over the higher terrain. Occasional snow showers may sneak into HIE...but confidence and coverage is low enough that I have not included in the TAF past 10 PM. Surface gusts around 20 kt possible thru the night...but trending down.
VFR conditions prevail outside of the mtns...where areas of MVFR CIGs will linger into Tue night.

Long Term... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the extended period with some upslope showers possible across northern terminals Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds will remain offshore and gusty thru Tue.
After briefly diminishing they will increase again and shift to more southwesterly ahead of a cold front Tue evening. With seas remaining at or above 5 ft outside the bays...SCA conditions are expected more or less thru the period.

Long Term... Seas finally subside below 5ft by Thursday afternoon, however breezy winds are likely to continue through the end of the week gusting up to 20-25mph. This will keep seas just below SCA thresholds through the end of the week, but not far below.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ151-153.

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Back Cove
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Mon -- 03:09 AM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM EST     9.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:49 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:57 PM EST     8.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Back Cove, Maine, Tide feet

Cliff Island
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Mon -- 03:01 AM EST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM EST     9.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:44 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:41 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:53 PM EST     8.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cliff Island, Luckse Sound, Maine, Tide feet

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