Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Falmouth, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday January 23, 2020 2:29 PM EST (19:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:20AMMoonset 4:26PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 911 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Rest of today..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 911 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A weak frontal boundary will cross the waters tonight and early Friday. High pressure will then persist through early Saturday. Low pressure will pass through the waters later this weekend and early next week. Gales are possible Saturday night and early Sunday morning with this system. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falmouth, ME
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location: 43.71, -70.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 231412 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 912 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure provides fair weather and above average temperatures today. A cold front will sink gradually south into the area late Today through Friday accompanied by a few clouds. A coastal system passes this weekend with accumulating snow possible over higher terrain, rain along the coast, and a mix between over the foothills. The system exits early next week with quiet weather to follow.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

910 AM . At 13z a 1031 millibar high was centered to our south across the mid Atlantic region. GOES imagery showed some passing high and patchy mid clouds across the region. Where we break the low level inversion . we'll warm well into the 30s and lower 40s today under filtered sunshine For this ESTF update. I made minor adjustments to near term grids to reflect the current satellite and mesonet.

Update . Have updated the forecast based on current observations and trends this morning. Temperatures have bottomed out below zero in a few areas this morning as radiational cooling dominated the region under clear skies and light winds.

Thin, Cirrus clouds will be crossing the region today as moisture crosses over the top the ridge. There should be a rebound in temperatures with afternoon highs above freezining in most locations.

Prev Disc . Very quiet conditions will continue in the near term portion of the forecast. A large ridge of high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will allow for winds to continue from the southwest both at the surface and aloft. Despite a chilly start to the morning with radiational cooling in some areas, temperatures will rebound and top out above freezing in all areas today as some melting of the snowpack occurs. Temperatures will be highest over southernmost New Hampshire where readings to reach the lower 40s under mostly sunny skies.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. A few clouds will pass through the region tonight as a moisture starved and weak cold front slips through the region. Winds will shift to the north, but remain light through the period.

A light northerly flow will continue on Friday, however temperatures will be above freezing once again with readings in the lower 40s over southernmost New Hampshire. High pressure will shift from north of Maine to the Canadian Maritimes as what little Arctic air we have exits the region.

All 00Z models then indicate low pressure will enter the Northern Ohio Valley, allowing a secondary area of low pressure to begin to develop over the Mid Atlantic region. This brings us to the long term portion of the forecast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Mountain snow and coastal rain Saturday night into Sunday .

By Friday night, a closed (nearly cut-off) 500 mb trough will be positioned over the lower Ohio Valley. Through its connection with the southern stream, and its disconnect with the northern stream retreating back into Canada, a healthy warm sector develops ahead of the system over our area with 850 mb temperatures above freezing and PWAT increasing to 0.75-1" by Saturday afternoon. At the surface, low pressure occludes into the upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region while southern stream energy advecting up the front of the trough spurs cyclogenesis over the Mid-Atlantic coast. As the former low decays Saturday, it approaches the strengthening coastal low, combining over New England by Sunday with accumulating snow, moderate rainfall, and gusty coastal winds. Model consensus suggests the low pressure center crosses the Maine coastal plain Sunday into Sunday night. Impacts associated with this system, with some model-to-model and run-to-run consistency by this time, are centered Saturday evening through Sunday morning with showers persisting under the upper level low into Monday especially over the mountains with favorable upslope flow behind the departing low.

High confidence exists in: mostly rain along the coast/southern NH and mostly snow over higher terrain including the Whites and western Maine mountains; and a period of gusty winds in excess of 30 mph along the immediate coast Sunday morning.

Medium confidence exists in: QPF of at least 1.25" over the coastal plain with a sharp cut-off near the international border; and snow ratios on the low side of average with poor overlap between favorable dendrite growth and strong ascent.

Low confidence exists in: strong coastal frontogenetic forcing leading to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall along the coast; and minor splash- over during high tide Sunday (current timing suggests peak winds/waves occur around low tide however). Although long- range models have consistently painted 1-1.5" QPF through Sunday morning, the CMC (interestingly) and some higher-res CAMs coming into view hint at strong forcing along the coastal front leading to over 2" of rain there, which may cause some issues depending on rain rates should this occur. Snowfall over higher terrain looks to stay in the 4-7" range, however should stronger slantwise forcing be realized due in part to stronger coastal frontogenesis, this could be higher.

Ensembles continue to show more uncertainty than deterministic agreement leads on with substantial spread in crucial 850 mb temperatures as well as the degree of frontogenetical forcing that can be realized. The keys to forecast uncertainty lie mainly in the low- to mid-levels as a result. Although the 500 mb pattern has good consensus, the evolution and interaction of the 2 surface lows and their attendant low/mid-level circulations as the upper level trough axis sharpens and rotates into New England will dictate system track and strength of forcing. How warm antecedent conditions are will have bearing on how much mixed precipitation we end up with, and if sleet cuts into snowfall totals.

Dry air starts to intrude aloft by mid-Sunday which decreases likelihood of impacts after that point, although the low overhead keeps shower chances through the day. The upper level low crosses by the end of Monday, helped along by the northern stream over Canada, with upslope snow showers ending. Beyond this point long range models generally agree that the overall synoptic pattern becomes trough dominant into the middle of the next week with gradually cooling mid- level temperatures, likely bringing a return to near-normal temperatures.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term . VFR conditions expected in all areas with just some high, cirrus clouds from time to time today through Friday.

Long Term . VFR prevails through much of Saturday under light easterly flow. Ceilings gradually lower as rain and snow approaches from the southwest Saturday evening with associated MVFR (in rain) and IFR or worse (in rain or snow) visibilities expected. Gusty NE winds develop along the coast overnight into Sunday morning with coastal and southern rain, northern/mountain snow persisting. Expect winds to go variable as low pressure crosses Sunday. Showers with periodic restrictions persist through Sunday, Monday in the mountains, with northwest flow settling in.

MARINE. Short Term . The surface gradient will remain weak today. However, southwesterly winds from aloft may allow gusts up to 20 kt along the outer waters today. A weak cold front will then cross the waters from the north overnight. This will allow winds to veer to the west, northwest. As low pressure heads towards the Mid Atlantic region, winds will switch to the northeast on Friday.

Long Term . A low pressure system crosses New England and perhaps the northern Gulf of Maine Saturday night through Monday with building winds and seas. SCAs develop by Saturday evening with period of easterly to southeasterly gale force winds possible that night into Sunday morning. The system slow exits by Monday evening with decreasing northwesterly winds.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



ES


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 4 mi60 min 36°F 38°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 14 mi100 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 35°F 39°F2 ft1025.8 hPa (-1.3)25°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 31 mi90 min SSW 1.9 41°F 22°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 32 mi60 min 40°F 40°F1025.8 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 38 mi86 min SW 9.7 G 12 2 ft1026.2 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 46 mi86 min SW 12 G 14 40°F 41°F3 ft1024.6 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Portland, Portland International Jetport, ME6 mi39 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast39°F18°F43%1025.7 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME24 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair37°F18°F46%1026.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE7S3CalmCalmS3S6SW4SW4SW6SW4SW5W5S4NW4SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4
1 day agoCalmS6S3S3SW4SW3CalmNW4CalmW4NW3W3W3W3W5W6CalmW3CalmW4W4CalmNE3Calm
2 days agoNW9N8NW5N3CalmCalmW3W3SW5W4CalmW3SW3CalmW4NW3W3CalmW4CalmNW3W43SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Presumpscot River Bridge, Maine
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Presumpscot River Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:40 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     10.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EST     8.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.2420.80.61.63.76.28.49.910.39.67.75.12.50.5-0.6-0.413.35.77.78.88.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cliff Island, Luckse Sound, Maine
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Cliff Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:50 AM EST     10.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:25 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:17 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EST     8.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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63.71.80.70.61.73.86.38.49.810.29.47.54.92.30.4-0.6-0.31.23.55.87.78.88.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.