Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Falmouth, ME
May 10, 2024 10:24 PM EDT (02:24 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:18 AM Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 6:43 AM Moonset 11:28 PM |
ANZ153 Casco Bay- 630 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late this evening, then becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue - S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night - S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ100 630 Pm Edt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure will become centered northeast of the waters for the next few days further south, an area of low pressure is expected to move offshore of the mid-atlantic by early Saturday before lifting northeast, remaining east of the gulf of maine through Sunday. Broad high pressure is forecast to center over the western atlantic early next week bringing a more southerly flow back across the waters. Low pressure approaches the coast by mid-week.
Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 102239 AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 639 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cool and unsettled weather pattern is expected through the next several days as a longwave trough gradually crosses the area. Although day-to-day details are relatively uncertain, there will be several opportunities for rain showers through this time. No days are expected to be washouts, however. Below- average temperatures are expected through this weekend, then will start to trend warmer next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Update...
Only minor modifications to the near term portion of the forecast package with this update. Diurnal Cu will continue to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This will allow for light winds and a very chilly night with some radiational cooling, especially away from the coast. Have introduced patchy frost into the forecast for tonight as temperatures will reach the mid 30s in some locations by morning.
Scattered showers over north-central New Hampshire will be diminishing after sunset as well with a few snow showers on the summit of Mount Washington expected.
Prev Disc...Diurnal instability and sufficient moisture in and around the 850mb level has resulted in a pretty expansive cumulus field today with skies being mostly cloudy with the exception being those near the coast who have had the seabreeze move through. The airmass is pretty dry above this layer (and also closer to the surface), and combined with a subsidence inversion aloft, not much in the way of showers have been seen so far. So while we should still see some showers to develop through the course of the afternoon, this environment will keep coverage low with the vast majority staying dry. I have generally 20% PoP across the interior for light showers and/or sprinkles with 30% over toward the western CT River Valley where the low-level moisture depth is a little higher.
As the sun sets this evening, showers that do develop will wane, and the diurnally driven cloud cover is also expected to diminish through this evening with skies generally partly cloudy tonight. Forecast lows are currently in the upper 30s and low 40s, but considering how low the dewpoints are right now, it's possible that some areas could see mid 30s if skies are able to remain clearer. If this is the case, patchy frost may occur.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure remains across the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday while a weak low pressure passes well to our south and east. Ample low-level moisture will also still be present with dry air aloft again, so I'm expecting a pretty similar day as far the weather is concerned. Low-level lapse rates will be pretty steep, and a cumulus will probably develop by mid morning with diurnal isolated to scattered showers then following through the afternoon with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE in the low levels. Max temps will again be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Showers diminish toward sunset as daytime heating is lost and shortwave ridge builds in very briefly. Skies will be partly cloudy initially before increasing overnight. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across the north and upper 30s to low 40s farther south.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
An upper level trough crosses New England late this weekend, with a welcome warming trend following its passage albeit with some rain (although not a washout). In general, the forecast continues to trend on the drier side Sunday and Monday...
although light diurnal showers will still be possible, mainly in the interior and across the mountains. A more organized system brings better chances for more widespread rainfall around the middle of next week.
Starting Sunday... the closed off center of an upper level low shifts through southern New England. At the surface, weak ridging extends from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence down into Maine and New Hampshire, as a low tracks northeast into Nova Scotia.
Although the upper level low will keep mixed mid- and upper- level cloud decks over the area, the surface high supports dry air in light northeast flow which will keep ceilings up and allow for good mixing. Temperatures are forecast to warm to around 60, although that trend will likely be stunted along the coast with a seabreeze. Weak mixed layer instability combined with mid-level moisture and cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to support slow-moving afternoon showers, most likely over the mountains but possible anywhere given the synoptic support.
Shortwave ridging moves in behind the departing upper level low Sunday night, with rain shower chances diminishing and some clearing. Overall it could be a good radiational cooling night depending on the timing and degree of clearing, with lows most likely near 40 but potentially down into the mid-30s in more ideal scenarios. With the growing season active everywhere but the mountain zones, will have to keep an eye on trends in case a frost/freeze headline may be necessary.
High pressure slides offshore to the east on Monday with flow turning more zonal aloft. Meanwhile upstream, another upper level trough will be spinning across northern Ontario into Quebec. Ridging should initially suppress precipitation chances, but it is short- lived and transient so by the time we get into peak heating/mixing we'll start seeing pressure falls and associated warm advection from the west. These will support high temperatures largely in the 60s, along with diurnal rain shower activity. With the offshore high, there ought to be a strong sea breeze that will limit temperatures along the coast.
There is good model agreement by now WRT the aforementioned Canadian trough bringing a warm front across New England Monday night through Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. This more organized system brings better potential for more widespread rain to the area though there's still quite a bit of uncertainty WRT to QPF at this range. Though, the majority of ensemble members keep totals around 0.75" or less which doesn't raise too many alarm bells for hydro, however PWATs will likely rise above 1.0 inch and SW flow parallel to the front gives some pause... so it'll be another item to watch trends on.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...Mainly VFR through Saturday night. Isolated/scattered showers remain possible into early this evening, and these are expected again on Saturday during the daytime hours, mainly away from the coast. Should these pass over any terminals, brief MVFR restrictions are possible. For tonight/early Saturday, will have to watch for fog should skies clear out enough. For Saturday night and early Sunday morning, while still low, there is a somewhat better chance for MVFR ceilings and patchy fog.
Long Term...VFR prevails Sun-Mon, except brief MVFR in SHRA possible over the interior and west. More widespread SHRA/RA and associated restrictions are likely to develop Tue into Wed, with VFR returning Wed into Thu.
MARINE
Short Term...Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Saturday night. High pressure to the northeast of the waters and low pressure passing to the south and east will keep a northeast flow going the rest of today through Saturday night. However, winds are expected to veer onshore Saturday once the seabreeze gets going.
Long Term...Light flow and quiet seas are expected over the extended forecast period with SCA conditions unlikely to occur.
In general, winds late this weekend will be NE, then will turn out of the SW to start the next week however daily sea breezes and a nebulous pressure gradient will muddy this progression a bit. The best chance for 25+ kt winds, right now, comes around Tue with a more organized system potentially crossing the region which also brings potential for rain and fog. This system likely departs around Wednesday night with drier air filters in by Thursday, however the trough may cut off near the coast which will impact timing a bit.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 639 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cool and unsettled weather pattern is expected through the next several days as a longwave trough gradually crosses the area. Although day-to-day details are relatively uncertain, there will be several opportunities for rain showers through this time. No days are expected to be washouts, however. Below- average temperatures are expected through this weekend, then will start to trend warmer next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Update...
Only minor modifications to the near term portion of the forecast package with this update. Diurnal Cu will continue to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. This will allow for light winds and a very chilly night with some radiational cooling, especially away from the coast. Have introduced patchy frost into the forecast for tonight as temperatures will reach the mid 30s in some locations by morning.
Scattered showers over north-central New Hampshire will be diminishing after sunset as well with a few snow showers on the summit of Mount Washington expected.
Prev Disc...Diurnal instability and sufficient moisture in and around the 850mb level has resulted in a pretty expansive cumulus field today with skies being mostly cloudy with the exception being those near the coast who have had the seabreeze move through. The airmass is pretty dry above this layer (and also closer to the surface), and combined with a subsidence inversion aloft, not much in the way of showers have been seen so far. So while we should still see some showers to develop through the course of the afternoon, this environment will keep coverage low with the vast majority staying dry. I have generally 20% PoP across the interior for light showers and/or sprinkles with 30% over toward the western CT River Valley where the low-level moisture depth is a little higher.
As the sun sets this evening, showers that do develop will wane, and the diurnally driven cloud cover is also expected to diminish through this evening with skies generally partly cloudy tonight. Forecast lows are currently in the upper 30s and low 40s, but considering how low the dewpoints are right now, it's possible that some areas could see mid 30s if skies are able to remain clearer. If this is the case, patchy frost may occur.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure remains across the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday while a weak low pressure passes well to our south and east. Ample low-level moisture will also still be present with dry air aloft again, so I'm expecting a pretty similar day as far the weather is concerned. Low-level lapse rates will be pretty steep, and a cumulus will probably develop by mid morning with diurnal isolated to scattered showers then following through the afternoon with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE in the low levels. Max temps will again be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Showers diminish toward sunset as daytime heating is lost and shortwave ridge builds in very briefly. Skies will be partly cloudy initially before increasing overnight. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across the north and upper 30s to low 40s farther south.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
An upper level trough crosses New England late this weekend, with a welcome warming trend following its passage albeit with some rain (although not a washout). In general, the forecast continues to trend on the drier side Sunday and Monday...
although light diurnal showers will still be possible, mainly in the interior and across the mountains. A more organized system brings better chances for more widespread rainfall around the middle of next week.
Starting Sunday... the closed off center of an upper level low shifts through southern New England. At the surface, weak ridging extends from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence down into Maine and New Hampshire, as a low tracks northeast into Nova Scotia.
Although the upper level low will keep mixed mid- and upper- level cloud decks over the area, the surface high supports dry air in light northeast flow which will keep ceilings up and allow for good mixing. Temperatures are forecast to warm to around 60, although that trend will likely be stunted along the coast with a seabreeze. Weak mixed layer instability combined with mid-level moisture and cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to support slow-moving afternoon showers, most likely over the mountains but possible anywhere given the synoptic support.
Shortwave ridging moves in behind the departing upper level low Sunday night, with rain shower chances diminishing and some clearing. Overall it could be a good radiational cooling night depending on the timing and degree of clearing, with lows most likely near 40 but potentially down into the mid-30s in more ideal scenarios. With the growing season active everywhere but the mountain zones, will have to keep an eye on trends in case a frost/freeze headline may be necessary.
High pressure slides offshore to the east on Monday with flow turning more zonal aloft. Meanwhile upstream, another upper level trough will be spinning across northern Ontario into Quebec. Ridging should initially suppress precipitation chances, but it is short- lived and transient so by the time we get into peak heating/mixing we'll start seeing pressure falls and associated warm advection from the west. These will support high temperatures largely in the 60s, along with diurnal rain shower activity. With the offshore high, there ought to be a strong sea breeze that will limit temperatures along the coast.
There is good model agreement by now WRT the aforementioned Canadian trough bringing a warm front across New England Monday night through Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. This more organized system brings better potential for more widespread rain to the area though there's still quite a bit of uncertainty WRT to QPF at this range. Though, the majority of ensemble members keep totals around 0.75" or less which doesn't raise too many alarm bells for hydro, however PWATs will likely rise above 1.0 inch and SW flow parallel to the front gives some pause... so it'll be another item to watch trends on.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...Mainly VFR through Saturday night. Isolated/scattered showers remain possible into early this evening, and these are expected again on Saturday during the daytime hours, mainly away from the coast. Should these pass over any terminals, brief MVFR restrictions are possible. For tonight/early Saturday, will have to watch for fog should skies clear out enough. For Saturday night and early Sunday morning, while still low, there is a somewhat better chance for MVFR ceilings and patchy fog.
Long Term...VFR prevails Sun-Mon, except brief MVFR in SHRA possible over the interior and west. More widespread SHRA/RA and associated restrictions are likely to develop Tue into Wed, with VFR returning Wed into Thu.
MARINE
Short Term...Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Saturday night. High pressure to the northeast of the waters and low pressure passing to the south and east will keep a northeast flow going the rest of today through Saturday night. However, winds are expected to veer onshore Saturday once the seabreeze gets going.
Long Term...Light flow and quiet seas are expected over the extended forecast period with SCA conditions unlikely to occur.
In general, winds late this weekend will be NE, then will turn out of the SW to start the next week however daily sea breezes and a nebulous pressure gradient will muddy this progression a bit. The best chance for 25+ kt winds, right now, comes around Tue with a more organized system potentially crossing the region which also brings potential for rain and fog. This system likely departs around Wednesday night with drier air filters in by Thursday, however the trough may cut off near the coast which will impact timing a bit.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME | 4 mi | 55 min | S 2.9G | 47°F | 50°F | 29.86 | ||
| 44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME | 14 mi | 45 min | SSE 5.8G | 47°F | 49°F | 29.90 | 39°F | |
| WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME | 31 mi | 85 min | SE 1 | 44°F | 40°F | |||
| 44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf | 38 mi | 141 min | SE 5.8G | 47°F | 50°F | 2 ft | 29.84 | |
| 44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf | 46 mi | 141 min | N 3.9G | 44°F | 2 ft | 29.86 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
No data
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPWM PORTLAND INTL JETPORT,ME | 6 sm | 33 min | SSE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 45°F | 37°F | 76% | 29.90 | |
| KLEW AUBURN/LEWISTON MUNI,ME | 24 sm | 28 min | SSE 04 | 10 sm | Clear |
Presumpscot River Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:59 AM EDT 11.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:30 AM EDT -1.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:43 PM EDT 9.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:59 AM EDT 11.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:30 AM EDT -1.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:43 PM EDT 9.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT 0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Presumpscot River Bridge, Maine, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 10.7 |
| 1 am |
| 11.4 |
| 2 am |
| 10.7 |
| 3 am |
| 8.8 |
| 4 am |
| 5.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| -1.2 |
| 8 am |
| -1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 2.7 |
| 11 am |
| 5.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 8 |
| 1 pm |
| 9.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 9.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 8.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 6.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 2 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.5 |
Doyle Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:56 AM EDT 11.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:23 AM EDT -1.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:40 PM EDT 9.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:56 AM EDT 11.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:23 AM EDT -1.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:40 PM EDT 9.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 11:27 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Doyle Point, Maine, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 10.7 |
| 1 am |
| 11.3 |
| 2 am |
| 10.5 |
| 3 am |
| 8.5 |
| 4 am |
| 5.6 |
| 5 am |
| 2.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.2 |
| 7 am |
| -1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 5.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 8.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 9.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 9.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 8.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 6.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 6.6 |
Portland, ME,
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