North Creek, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com
Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar   TAF  

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Creek, NY

June 20, 2024 3:01 AM EDT (07:01 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 7:58 PM   Moonset 3:32 AM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      HIDE   Help

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Creek, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map   HIDE
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
      HIDE   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KALY 200648 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 248 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Our stretch of hot and humid weather continues today with scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Some storms may become strong producing damaging winds gusts, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. We remain very warm and humid Friday through the weekend but not quite as hot as previous days. Areas of showers and thunderstorms redevelop each afternoon with potential for more widespread rain and stronger storms on Sunday as a cold front approaches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
**Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of eastern New York and western New England through 8 PM Thursday**

A muggy and warm night continues across eastern NY and western New England tonight with many areas still in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Regional radar shows a few areas of rain showers and embedded storms in central NY tracking eastward but with GOES16 IR showing warming cloud tops, these showers will likely weaken as they reach our western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondack areas. Otherwise, we note an MCS in southern Ontario tracking eastward but again, IR shows warming cloud tops so this complex will likely continue diminishing. A more impressive line of rain and storms are quickly developing off Lake Ontario and progressing towards the Tug Hill. This will need to monitored over the coming hours as IR shows cloud tops cooling quickly.
CAMs are not handling current coverage of showers/storms well but based on radar and satellite trends, slight and chance POPs in western zones through 12 UTC seems reasonable. Will adjusted as needed over the coming hours.

Otherwise, expecting a third day of hot and humid weather today as our large anticyclone with central heights around 597dam gradually pushes southward into the mid-Atlantic. With slightly faster zonal flow around the periphery of the ridge sliding south into more of eastern NY and western New England, we will be in a more favorable corridor that will likely support afternoon shower and thunderstorms. Our environment of 850hPa isotherms around 18-19C, mixing up to around 800-850hPa, isolated storm coverage and a thicker cirrus canopy the past few days has resulted in mainly low to mid 90s highs and upper 80s in the higher terrain.
Similar conditions are expected today except with higher shower and storm coverage so continue to show low to mid 90s for highs in the valley areas with mid to upper 80s in the high terrain.
We limited mid-90s to the mid- Hudson Valley where shower/storm coverage should be less. Combination of temperatures in the 80s/90s and high dew points in the low 70s will once again support dangerous heat index values reaching 95 - 100F.
Technically we have lower heat index values in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but given this is the third day of hot/humid weather and that most of these areas do not have air conditioning, we maintained heat advisory headlines.

A sfc trough tracking southward towards our region midday into the afternoon will provide a focus for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development. In addition, embedded shortwaves within the zonal flow aloft will also enhance forcing for ascent. The hot/humid environment will easily support moderate to high instability values ranging 1.5 - 2.5k J/kg so once convective initiation begins, updrafts will likely quickly strengthen. Taller storms will present damaging wind concerns as DCAPE values reach >500J/kg. Given weak shear with 0-6km shear values only around 20kt, storms should mainly be pulse- type but can grow into storm clusters from outflow boundaries/cold pools. High equilibrium levels >35kft will also present high NCAPE and hail cape values which local research shows supports frequent lightning as well. High PWATs around 2" and high freezing levels >10kft means we will see efficient warm rain processes and storms producing heavy downpours. Weak steering flow aloft can result in some localized poor drainage flooding, especially if storms persist over a given area.
Guidance and CAMs focus convection mainly around I-90 northward where the best "ridge roller" environment should set-up so placed likely POPs here and trended POPs to just chance in the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT. SPC maintained its "slight risk" today with damaging winds the primary hazard. While the storm coverage is not as widespread as we typically see with slight risk type of days, the high instability will allow updrafts that develop to quickly grow towards severe limits and with increased forcing for ascent in place today, storm coverage should be greater than we have seen in previous days.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
**Heat Advisories continue through 8 PM Thursday for all of eastern New York and western New England**

Showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage and taper off upon the loss of daytime heating tomorrow evening into tomorrow night yielding a fairly dry overnight period. Much like tonight, conditions will be muggy with low temperatures ranging from the mid/upper 60s to low 70s.

By Friday morning, ridging aloft will have become relatively flat, leading to flow becoming zonal. Geopotential height will remain high, however, so while high temperatures Friday should be cooler than Thursday, it will still be rather warm for mid- June standards for most places. The other contributing factor to this will be an approaching, weak cold front tracking from northwest to southeast across the area throughout the day. This will lead to rather variable highs across the region with mid/upper 70s to low 80s at higher elevations and mid to upper 80s and even pockets of low 90s (lower Mid-Hudson Valley)
throughout most valley areas. At this time, heat indices look to be highest in the Hudson Valley where low to mid 90s are possible. However, with uncertainties still in existence pertaining to the timing of the front, we have chosen to hold off on any additional heat advisories for these areas. It is certainly possible that once confidence increases, additional products could be necessary, but will certainly be much less widespread than the past several days.

With the passage of the front, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across eastern New York and western New England throughout the day Friday. At this time, the greatest instability lies south and west of the Capital District where the greatest heating will likely be allowed to take place ahead of the front. Here, a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms has been issued by the SPC. Strong to isolated storms are again likely to be isolated in terms of coverage.
Showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder persist into Friday night as the front becomes stalled just south of the region along the NY/PA border. Low temperatures will fair a bit cooler than recent days with upper 50s expected in the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens and low to upper 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The long term period generally looks to start unsettled with the chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday.
The aforementioned stalled boundary looks to linger just south of the region Saturday, causing the chance for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High temperatures will be several degrees cooler Saturday, though still relatively warm, with mid/upper 70s to mid 80s anticipated across the region.

Sunday, the stalled boundary lifts north and east across the area as a warm front as a surface low traverses southeast Ontario into southern Quebec and a positively- tilted upper- level trough begins to dig into the region. With a trailing cold front remaining well upstream, a warm sector will be created across the region, such that more showers and thunderstorms will be likely. This is the period to watch as some storms could become strong to severe with the anticipation of instability increases intersecting zones of higher shear. Will continue to monitor this period over the coming days for severe weather potential. Highs Sunday will increase to the upper 70s/low 80s at higher elevations to mid/upper 80s and possibly some low 90s in valley areas.

Showers and thunderstorm chances continue into Monday as the upper-level trough swings through the region in tandem with the cold front. Directly in its wake, upper ridging builds in to force the return to dry conditions Tuesday through the remainder of the long term period. This will, however, mean the return to hot weather as temperatures rise back into widespread mid/upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday...Fog/mist has already formed at GFL with IFR vsbys there, with VFR conditions at all other TAF sites. Expecting patchy fog to remain at GFL through around sunrise, and will handle with a tempo group. ALB/POU should remain VFR through the night, but will include a tempo group for some fog/mist at PSF for a couple hrs right before sunrise. Confidence in fog at PSF is not as high so will just mention low-end MVFR vsbys for now, but IFR or lower vsbys are possible if fog forms.

FOg lifts quickly this morning with just some passing mid and high clouds and VFR conditions through the morning. However, by early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop.
Have expanded the prob30 groups to 3 hrs at all TAF sites to try to better capture the window for thunderstorms, but will not that thunderstorms remain possible (around a 30% chance)from 18z through at least sunset at ALB/GFL/PSF. Lower chances for a storm at POU, so will not mention thunder here just yet. Showers should slowly diminish after sunset. Will include prevailing VFR conditions for now, but if any of the TAF sites see a heavier shower/storm this afternoon then fog/mist would be possible after sunset.

Winds should be light and variable tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt from the south/southwest this morning, lasting through sunset tonight before becoming light and variable again. Gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorms this afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19: Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

Record High Minimum Temperatures...

Wednesday, June 19: Albany - 71 (1976)
Glens Falls - 67 (1905, 1949, 1976, 2017)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1993)

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 73 (1893)
Glens Falls - 68 (1964)
Poughkeepsie - 71 (1931)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 72 (1923)
Glens Falls - 71 (1953)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1931)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       HIDE   Help




Airport Reports
    EDIT      HIDE   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KGFL33 sm45 minNNE 053 smA Few Clouds Mist 70°F70°F100%30.26
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KGFL
   
NEW Forecast page for KGFL (use "back" to return)

Wind History graph: GFL
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)


Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   HIDE   Help
Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:43 AM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:34 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
2.2
2
am
3.5
3
am
4.5
4
am
5.1
5
am
5.3
6
am
4.7
7
am
3.7
8
am
2.8
9
am
2
10
am
1
11
am
0.2
12
pm
0.1
1
pm
1
2
pm
2.1
3
pm
3
4
pm
3.5
5
pm
3.7
6
pm
3.4
7
pm
2.6
8
pm
1.8
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
0.8
11
pm
0.2


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
   EDIT      HIDE   Help
Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:35 AM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
2.4
2
am
3.7
3
am
4.6
4
am
5.2
5
am
5.3
6
am
4.6
7
am
3.6
8
am
2.7
9
am
1.8
10
am
0.9
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
1.2
2
pm
2.3
3
pm
3.1
4
pm
3.6
5
pm
3.7
6
pm
3.3
7
pm
2.5
8
pm
1.7
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.2


Weather Map
      HIDE   Help


GEOS Local Image of north east   
EDIT   HIDE



Burlington, VT,




NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE