Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gardiner, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 140925 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 225 AM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026

SHORT TERM
Radar shows a batch of rain is moving through Coos and Douglas counties. A shortwave trough is passing over early today and will continue bringing precipitation. This will be concentrated to areas along and west of the Cascades. Snow levels will be around 6,000'-6,500', so most of this will fall as rain besides areas near Crater Lake. This will occur through this morning, with drier conditions for the afternoon and overnight.
Rainfall amounts are forecast to reach 0.50"-0.75" at the coast (near 1.00" for southern Curry County), and 0.25"-0.50" for the Cascades. Most west side valleys will see 0.15"-0.25", with the Umpqua Basin having the best chance to receive 0.25". 2"-4" is forecast to fall through this morning near Crater Lake and areas north.

Another impact from this shortwave will be strong winds east of the Cascades this afternoon. Forecast 700 mb winds are nearing 50-55 kt in these areas, and maximum wind gusts could near these numbers above 5,500 feet. With that, a Wind Advisory is in effect starting at 11 AM and continuing through 8 PM, and the details are in NPWMFR.

Temperatures will take a dip today with mostly 50s for highs this afternoon. Skies are forecast to clear by tonight, helping temperatures drop to the 20s east and 30s west. It is worth noting that the Coos County coast has a 70-80% of seeing temperatures less than 36 degrees tomorrow morning. However, there is warming to come! Please see the long term discussion for details. -Hermansen

LONG TERM
Beyond today's shortwave, the Pacific ridge looks to strengthen and establish a stable pattern through most if not all of the week ahead. This will bring a warning trend starting on Sunday. Forecast daytime highs remain 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages across the area by the middle of next week.
Broadly speaking, coastal areas will see daytime highs in the mid to high 60s while west side valleys will be in the mid to high 70s. Low elevation areas in Lake and Klamath counties may stay in the low to mid 70s, while parts of Siskiyou and Modoc counties may see a few extra degrees of warming. Per NBM probabilistic guidance, Alturas has a 50-65% to see daytime highs above 80 degrees from Tuesday into Saturday while Medford and Montague have a 15-20% chance and only towards the end of the week. These warm conditions do bring Minor HeatRisk levels to the area through most of next week. Minor levels do not support an Advisory product, but individuals who are extremely sensitive to warm conditions may be at risk of heat-related illnesses next week.

Cooler temperatures are possible for next weekend, although there is some uncertainty in the timing and amount of cooling. To illustrate this, let's consider the interquartile range for Roseburg;s daytime highs. An example of a "usual" short-term interquartile range (the range between the 25th percentile and 75th percentile outcomes) for a high temperature might be 3 to 6 degrees. At Roseburg for this Saturday, that range is 3 degrees; we'd expect a high between 46 and 49 degrees. For Saturday the 21st, that range is 23 degrees; we'd expect a temperature between 56 and 79 degrees. This happens when long-term models see a wide range of outcomes. Of course, this range should decrease as the pattern for next weekend comes into focus. -TAD
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