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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 217 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming 30 kt. Wind waves sw 9 ft at 7 seconds. W swell 5 ft at 13 seconds...building to 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds in the evening, then...subsiding to 9 to 11 ft at 13 seconds after midnight. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain.
Sun..S wind 30 kt. Wind waves sw 9 ft at 8 seconds. SWell W 11 to 14 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..SW wind 10 kt...veering to N after midnight. Cape arago southward, S wind 15 to 20 kt... Veering to W 10 to 20 kt late in the evening, then... Veering to N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 12 seconds...subsiding to 8 to 9 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Mon..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 2 ft at 5 seconds in the morning...becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NE wind 5 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds...subsiding to 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of rain.
Tue..NE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds and nw 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue night..E wind 5 kt...veering to se after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell nw 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..S wind 10 kt...backing to E after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming S 2 ft at 4 seconds in the evening, then...shifting to the E 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SWell W 5 ft at 14 seconds... Building to W 9 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..E wind 10 kt. Wind waves E 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 14 seconds.

PZZ300 217 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue overnight tonight. The resulting south wind waves will combine with a large westerly swell. A cold front will pass through the waters on Sunday with winds and high and steep seas remaining highest north of cape blanco. A thermal through develops Monday with winds becoming northerly. Seas south of gold beach may become steep Monday into Monday night.

FXUS66 KMFR 100138 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 538 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

UPDATE
Updated the aviation section.

AVIATION
10/00Z TAFs...Mid and high level clouds are advancing into the northwest portion of southwest Oregon ahead of a trof well offshore. A moist flow ahead of the trof is bringing rain, thicker clouds and lower ceilings north of KOTH and KRBG.

These lower ceilings and rain will slowly sag southward overnight as the trof approaches the coast. Ceilings look to stay mostly VFR with some isolated MVFR ceilings occurring along and north of the Umpqua divide after sunrise.

Mostly MVFR ceilings and mountain obscuration over the coastal and Cascade mountains are expected to develop after 18Z from the Umpqua divide northward along with steady precipitation. South of that line some rain and MVFR ceilings can be expected west of the Cascades.

Eastside should see VFR ceilings with very little precipitation throughout the TAF forecast period. -Sargeant

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 222 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023/

SHORT TERM...

The leading edge of the next atmospheric river and warm front has hit areas in central Oregon this afternoon. Most of the precipitation is falling to our north today, although the axis of moisture will slide to the south by Sunday. This will result in a very good chance of rain for all locations and perhaps some snow above 8000 feet. Those chances of rain decrease as ones moves farther to the south and east. Those waiting for snow over the higher terrain and mountains will have to wait a bit longer as the airmass is fairly warm with this precipitation event on Sunday.

A cold front will slide down from the north as a short wave swings through the region Sunday evening. The cold front doesn't appear to move that far to the east farther inland. Instead it looks like some cooler air just shoots down the coastline. In any case, the chance of rain will persist Monday morning with snow levels decreasing down to 6300 feet Monday morning. Showers are the most likely precipitation mode for most of Monday.

By Monday night, high pressure will begin to build with a thermal trough setting up along the Oregon coastline. Some light easterly flow will begin to develop, which should result in some drier and warmer air along the Oregon coastline, especially on the ridges.
This is a good pattern for fog in the valleys during the morning as high pressure builds after some wetting rain in the soils.
We added fog into the forecast to show this concern.

Overall, an active weather pattern for the next few days, although impacts should be minimal to the public at large. The fog Monday night into Tuesday could pose some issues with aviation or perhaps the morning commute.

-Smith

LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday. Tuesday starts with an upper ridge over the west coast with the upper trough that brought precipitation to the region moving eastward, leaving continued low level moisture in the valleys. Ensemble plots are in very good agreement with the upper ridge shifting to the east by Wednesday afternoon, with the next front moving rain into the coast Wednesday.
Models then begin to diverge greatly, but the majority are keeping precipitation from the Cascades westward into Thursday. Although the ensemble plots diverge greatly Thursday afternoon into Friday, the majority of the ensemble members are showing ridging and dry with morning west side valley fog. Roughly half of the ECMWF and GFS meteograms are showing precipitation reaching inland to Medford next weekend, with an increasing number of members keeping a wet pattern after next weekend through most of the following week. -Sven

MARINE
Updated 200 PM Saturday December 9, 2023
Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue over the coastal waters tonight into Sunday morning. The strongest winds will occur north of Port Orford.

The strong winds combined with a large westerly swell will create hazardous conditions to small craft for all waters through Sunday evening.

A cold front will pass through the waters Sunday into Sunday evening with very slowly improving conditions while winds and high and steep seas remain highest in the northern portion of the waters. Moderate seas are likely by late Sunday night.

A weak thermal through develops along the coast early Monday with winds becoming northerly. Swell heights will diminish while sea conditions south of Gold Beach may barely cross the threshold into becoming steep Monday into Monday night.

Noticeable improvement is likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast uncertainty increases from Wednesday onward, but a building long period west-northwest swell at 17 to 18 seconds is possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
-Sven/Sargeant

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Gardiner
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Sat -- 03:43 AM PST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM PST     7.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:26 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:09 PM PST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:27 PM PST     5.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Florence
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Sat -- 03:32 AM PST     2.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:43 AM PST     6.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:38 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:58 PM PST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:15 PM PST     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florence, Siuslaw River, Oregon, Tide feet

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