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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1149 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy. Scattered light rain and snow showers late in the morning, then scattered light snow showers and isolated showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Scattered light snow showers in the evening, then isolated light snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Isolated light snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 8 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 101713 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1213 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

AVIATION

Expansive area of low stratus will hold firm through the late day period, as the passage of a surface trough solidifies a moist low level environment within ongoing lake moisture flux. Latest observational trends suggest some variability in ceiling height between low VFR and MVFR can be expected. The passage of the trough combined with daytime heating will bring potential for a few inconsequential widely scattered light rain/snow showers, although confidence in occurrence remains low attm. Prevailing westerly winds becoming northwesterly with the trough passage. Plausible a few lake effect snow showers manifest overnight, although with a less favorable northwest trajectory likely limiting both coverage and intensity.

For DTW...main window for possible light rain or melting snow showers will exist between 21z-01z. Any disruption to visibility should remain quite brief given the limited intensity/duration.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet through this evening. Medium tonight and Monday.

* High for precip type as rain/melting snow through this evening.
Ptype of snow overnight/Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

DISCUSSION...

An upper wave now churning over eastern Wisconsin will dampen as it lifts across northern Lower Mi this morning. Secondary mid level short wave energy trailing this initial wave will advance across Se Mi late this afternoon/evening and will maintain broader mid level troughing across the Great Lakes region through tonight. While there is ongoing post frontal low level cold air advection this morning, the rate of cooling in the boundary layer is being tempered by increasing low level mixing/steepening lapse rates. This will result in a slow drop in sfc temps into the mid/upper 30s today. Growing depth of cold air across the lakes will continue to activate the lake effect today. The westerly flow will veer toward northwest today, which will limit the extent of lake effect into Se Mi. The wave lifting across the northern lakes this morning will drive a sfc trough into Se Mi early this afternoon. Convective cloud depths may however struggle to activate ice nucleation, limiting precip potential. Cloud depths will increase late in the afternoon and evening as the secondary short wave drives colder 850mb temps into the area. This will increase chances for ice nucleation in the clouds and suggests scattered/30 percent chance of showers within the backdrop of mid level height falls. Boundary layer temps and wet bulb zero heights suggest precip type will be rain/melting snow this afternoon and wet snow this evening, with the expected coverage/intensity suggesting little to no impacts.

With the mid level trough passing east of the area on Monday, mid level confluence/subsidence will expand across Lower Mi. There is likely to be ample lake clouds trapped under a deepening low level inversion, with the clouds holding temps in the 30s. The low level flow will back toward the southwest late Monday/Monday night, driving a warmer and drier low level airmass into Se Mi which will promote a clearing trend. Despite this, nocturnal cooling will be limited by the strengthening gradient.

An upper level low forecast to rotate from central Canada into northern Ontario on Tuesday will drive a cold front across the Great Lakes. This front is forecast to weekend as moves south into the more zonal flow across the southern lakes. Lack of moisture depth along this boundary suggest the main impacts will likely be an increase in clouds and a slight cooling trend by mid week. Expansive high pressure will affect much of the eastern US by the end of the week and will ensure a dry forecast to end the work week.

MARINE...

Cold air advection is settling into the region with another cold front expected to move through the region today. Winds will turn out of the northwest this afternoon with in the wake of the front, which will also bring increasing waves and lake effect snow showers across Lake Huron through today. Wind gusts approach 30 knots and will continue to maintain higher wave action across Outer Saginaw Bay and northern portions of the Thumb. This will keep Small Craft Advisories in effect through today as waves build into across central and southern Lake Huron. Brief lull in stronger winds expected Monday with mainly 25 knots or below before another strong low pressure system swings across northern Ontario and Hudson Bay late Monday night into early Tuesday. This system will send another cold front through the region and another round of potential gales, mainly across Lake Huron, with the southwest to west winds beginning Tuesday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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