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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pinconning, MI

June 25, 2024 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 9:22 PM
Moonrise 11:27 PM   Moonset 8:39 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1159 Am Edt Tue Jun 25 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .

Rest of today - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy late in the morning, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Tonight - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the north after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinconning, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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940 FXUS63 KDTX 251804 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 204 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southwest to west wind persists through this afternoon with gusts of around 30 mph.

- There is a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm Wednesday with severe weather not expected.

- Cooler and less humid air moves back into the area by Wednesday night and lasts through Thursday.

- The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into Saturday.

AVIATION

Strong subsidence in the wake of the morning convection has cleared most of the cloud cover in the lowest 10 kft leading to primarily VFR, as well as gusty southwest winds, that will both persist through the afternoon. A SCT to BKN cloud deck based mainly between 3 and 5 kft may develop this afternoon as mid-level moisture attempts to work back in. Additional convection appears unlikely this evening into tonight even as a weak cold front sinks south into the area. There will be a chance for vsby reduction in fog/mist late tonight into early Wednesday morning, especially south of M-59, as winds become weak and moisture pools along the front - however confidence is too low to include at this time given expectation for a good amount of mid and high clouds. Chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm then increase mid morning tomorrow as the stalled front helps trigger scattered convection in the area.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not likely this evening into tonight. Chances for showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder then increase after 14Z Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings aob 5kft this evening, low overnight, then medium Wednesday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

UPDATE...

A few adjustments to the forecast with this morning update. Adjusted PoPs accordingly with the progression of the MCS and the trailing stratiform rainfall. Rain has ended across the Tr-Cities and Thumb with a wake low producing gusty winds up to around 40 mph over land areas. These winds have been much stronger over Saginaw Bay. Will continue to monitor these wake low winds that may spread southward through the remainder of the morning behind the trail edge of rainfall. Have bumped up wind gusts up slightly through the morning hours to account for this. The severe thunderstorm threat has also ended from the morning MCS and have cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

DISCUSSION...

Multiple convective clusters blossomed across the upper Midwest since sunset and are the forecast focus for Lower MI through this morning. The northern WI cluster became dominant in a location where mesoscale low pressure focused strong acceleration of the low level jet. Aggressive transport of moisture and instability now continues along and ahead of the southward extending surface warm front that marks the instability axis attracting persistence the existing storm complex or new storm development through the early morning cycle of nocturnal/elevated instability generation. This presents both a severe storm and excessive rainfall hazard across central and southern Lower MI this morning.

There is room for additional upscale growth of the main northern WI convective cluster into full MCS organization which gives it a chance to overcome instability limitations with eastward extent into SE Lower Mi. Zonal 50 kt flow at 500 mb is a marker for enough shear to maintain balance long enough for sufficient strengthening of the low level cold pool and rear inflow. The mesoscale forcing then becomes strong enough for the system to remain surface based as the larger scale instability axis leans into western Lower MI toward sunrise where the strongest and most organized part of the system is favored to track. We also have to assume the eastern flank will be capable of severe intensity until it is proven the sharp eastward instability gradient can take a toll on the MCS strength as it tracks toward the Tri Cities and Thumb shortly after sunrise, and farther toward the I69 corridor by mid morning. A more typical weakening trend then continues late morning due to both weakening of the low level jet and veering/weakening inflow. This leaves more of a heavy rainfall threat in place for the Detroit metro area southward until the remains of the system exit into Ontario and Ohio by early afternoon.

Conditions across SE MI will be stabilized considerably this afternoon, first by rain-cooled boundary layer air and then by warm temperatures aloft for the remainder of the day. A substantial west to east outflow boundary ends up south of the Ohio border which is later joined by the trailing surface trough that forces the instability axis into a similar west to east configuration by this evening. Additional surface based storms will be slow to develop along the hybrid outflow/prefrontal trough due to the capping aloft and little to no additional forcing on the heels of the early day system. Instead, another round of low level jet forced thunderstorm complexes are likely to initiate upstream where another round of surface low pressure is projected to form. This wave runs eastward along the surface trough keeping showers and storms mainly along and south of the IN/OH border until merging with the next northern stream mid level short wave. Showers and weaker storms spread back into SE MI Wednesday morning until the primary cold front sweeps through in the afternoon.

Cooler and less humid air follows the Wednesday front which brings high temperatures back down into the 70s across the area by Thursday. Broad high pressure settles over the region Thursday into Friday but is kept moving by the large scale upper air pattern that maintains a progressive character through next weekend.

MARINE...

Remnant convection from WI/western Great Lakes works into the central Great Lakes this morning bringing the potential for a few strong/severe wind gusts within thunderstorm activity. These showers and storms clear the area by midday though a slow moving cold front dropping through the area will offer another window for showers and storms to redevelop latter part of today. These chances are mainly focused over the southern Great Lakes. Breezy SW conditions in advance of said front have led to the need for small craft advisories for all nearshore waters through much of the day today.
An upper level trough settles into the Great Lakes Wednesday through late week bringing seasonably cooler conditions as well as more unsettled weather.

HYDROLOGY...

A complex of thunderstorms moves north to south across Lower Michigan this morning. Locally flooding rainfall is possible from this system as it produces widespread totals near 0.5 inch during the morning and isolated totals of 1 to 2 inches before exiting the area this afternoon.

After a break during the afternoon, a second round of storms becomes possible tonight into Wednesday morning. The latest storm trends still support the best thunderstorm potential along and south of I94 where additional totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are likely and isolated totals up to 1 inch are possible until the pattern exits the area by Wednesday afternoon.

The potential for flooding in each event is greater where repeated rounds of storms occur over the same area making ponding of water on roads and in prone low lying areas likely. The Tuesday and Wednesday activity collectively could lead to a brief response in the level of streams and rivers across the area through mid week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 16 mi42 minWSW 23G27 77°F 29.65
45163 27 mi42 minWSW 19G25 76°F 3 ft29.67
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 31 mi62 minSW 23G26 76°F 29.67
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi62 minWSW 13G20 78°F 29.67


Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KIKW JACK BARSTOW,MI 15 sm7 minWSW 09G1810 smOvercast81°F66°F62%29.68
KMBS MBS INTL,MI 16 sm49 minWSW 17G3210 smA Few Clouds81°F66°F62%29.69
KHYX SAGINAW COUNTY H W BROWNE,MI 23 sm7 minWSW 17G2210 smA Few Clouds81°F68°F66%29.68
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Wind History graph: IKW
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Detroit, MI,




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