Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinconning, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 132253 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 653 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

AVIATION.

Lingering high based diurnal cu fades this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies and light winds favored overnight as high pressure builds into the region. This will maintain dry and stable conditions through Tuesday, with simply a scattered to perhaps briefly broken coverage of diurnal cu above 5000 ft for the afternoon/early evening period. Winds light from the south during the daylight period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 326 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

DISCUSSION .

Diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening leaving mostly clear skies as surface high builds into the region. Another tranquil day on Tuesday with some warming. There is enough boundary layer moisture to have more diurnal cu Tuesday afternoon, but less than today. Wednesday looks to be dry for the forecast area now as the timing of the next system is even later. Additionally, convection across the upper lakes on Tuesday night is expected to dissipate across northern Lower and easter Upper early Wednesday. Besides some debris cloud for the northern part of the forecast area, diurnal cu is expect to be few to scattered. While guidance temps look good through Tuesday night, did go with the higher guidance sources for Wednesday with more sun expected which puts us very close to 90.

Thunderstorms develop across WI and IL on Wednesday afternoon and into the evening ahead of a good mid level wave. Appears to be enough organization to the convection that a surface low develops in response in all of the models besides the ECMWF. Depending on the strength of the wave and surface development, that could help organize the convection even more with a good deformation axis and upper jet dynamics. There is a good surge of moisture as Precipitable Water reaches 1.5 to nearly 2 inches. This could lead to a band of heavy rain as the system moves across southern Lower Michigan Wednesday night. As will most convection 66 to 72 hours out, confidence at this point is low, but enough potential to start highlighting. Severe threat looks to be limited. ML CAPEs reach 500 to 1000 J/kg Wednesday evening and then slowly erode with nightfall Wed. night.

Could have some residual showers and storms Thursday morning, but otherwise dry conditions expected for Thursday afternoon and Friday as 500 mb heights really start to rise and 850 mb temps reach the lower 20s C by Friday evening. Then for the weekend into Monday, southeast MI resides on the northern edge of the 500 mb ridge with several small waves rippling along it. Similar to the last heat wave, will have temperatures in the 90 to 95 range and a chance. of thunderstorms each day of the weekend. The difference with this heat wave is that the dew points may be a few degrees warmer than the last, especially late in the forecast.

MARINE .

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period resulting in dry conditions through at least early Wednesday. Northerly flow will subside overnight tonight before flow increases slightly from the southeast on Tuesday. The next chance for unsettled weather is expected Wednesday night as a low pressure system moves in from the west.

HYDROLOGY .

There is a strong likelihood of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night as a vigorous shortwave disturbance tracks through the area. Total rainfall from this system looks to reach half an inch in many locations with localized spots possibly receiving an inch. There is a potential for a local band of heavy rain in excess of an inch if this system is strong enough and pulls in enough moisture. This could lead to a localized flooding threat Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . SP HYDROLOGY . RBP

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	16 mi	37 min	E 16 G 18	72°F			1014.6 hPa (+0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	31 mi	57 min	ENE 12 G 13	70°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	46 mi	57 min	SE 2.9 G 5.1	69°F			1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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Last 24hr

N10

N12

N17

N13 G17

N10 G16

NW5 G16

N14 G17

NW7 G16

NW5 G8

NW6

W5 G8

NW6 G9

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N15

N12 G15

NE9

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NW3

1 day ago

N4

N9

N11 G14

N8 G11

NW4 G7

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W3

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NW5 G9

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NW6 G9

NW5 G9

NW6 G9

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N12 G15

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N8

2 days ago

NE1

E3

W4

NW6 G9

NW5 G9

N13 G17

N15 G20

NW11 G17

NW8 G12

NW8 G12

NW7 G12

NW9 G15

NW6 G16

NW11 G16

NW10 G15

NW9 G17

N8 G14

NW10 G16

N14

N9

N7

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N7

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI	15 mi	42 min	ENE 4	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	73°F	59°F	62%	1015.2 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI	16 mi	44 min	ENE 7	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	52°F	45%	1015 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI	23 mi	42 min	E 3	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	73°F	59°F	61%	1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

N11

NW4

Calm

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NW3

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

NW3

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N7

N7

N6 G9

N6

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1 day ago

N6

N7

N6

Calm

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Calm

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Calm

NW4

NW3

NW6

NW10 G15

NW7 G16

N11 G14

N8 G16

NW8 G15

NW10 G15

N10

N8 G15

N9 G17

N9 G15

NW10

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2 days ago

N10

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N7

N6

Calm

Calm

NW4

NW6

NW11 G15

N8

W9 G18

NW10 G16

NW9 G14

NW10

NW10

NW7 G14

NW8 G15

N10 G16

NW10 G14

N7

N8

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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