Saturday, January23, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Pinconning, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:36PM Saturday January 23, 2021 1:19 PM EST (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 1:17PMMoonset 3:34AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 1102 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the east after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202101232200;;366437 FZUS53 KDTX 231602 AAA NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan...UPDATED National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1102 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-232200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinconning, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.75, -84.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDTX 231744 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1244 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

AVIATION.

High pressure continues to move across the northern Ohio Valley early this afternoon, with northern extent reaching into the airspace and allowing for mainly clear skies with the exception of lingering stratocu at KMBS and KFNT, which has occasionally dipped MVFR at times. Sky attempts to stay mainly clear into the early evening hours before mid/high clouds fill in from the southwest ahead of approaching upper wave that will bring a round of periodic light snow late in the TAF period Sunday after 12z. West/northwest winds 5-10 knots will trend variable overnight for a time before reorienting out of the southeast Sunday.

For DTW . Light snow looks to hold off until after 12z Sunday as southern wing of moisture ascent will take some time to overcome near-surface dry air. Potential will exist for some intervals of MVFR snow towards the end of the period, but confidence not there to include mention at this time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low in ceilings below 5000 feet after 12z Sunday.

* High in ptype as snow after 12z Sunday

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 358 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

DISCUSSION .

Overnight stratus has held on nicely through the early parts of the morning, with rapid erosion of cloud cover now noted via infrared across the Grand Rapids region as mid-level subsidence ahead of surface high pressure currently located over the Midwest. Expecting the continued erosion of stratus to take place (south of the thumb) as high pressure continues to work east into the Ohio Valley by this afternoon. After a very cold start to the morning marked by overnight lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits, a modest warm up into the mid to upper 20s is expected later today along with some sunshine. As the high pressure tracks east through the evening, low-level flow will back from northwest to southwest. This will usher in low and mid level clouds across the state and will keep overnight lows slightly warmer, holding in the upper teens to lower 20s.

The next chance for light accumulating snowfall will then expand across Michigan throughout Sunday morning (after 6 AM EST) as weak system relative isentropic ascent takes place behind the departing high pressure system. Saturation will initially occur in the mid- levels on the 296-203K surfaces and will have to overcome some initial low level dry air. As the column saturates, expecting light snow to fill on across the state, with slightly better forcing noted across Flint up into the Tri Cities, where likely PoPs hold. Expecting around an inch of accumulation through the early afternoon in and around the Tri Cities, with totals holding under an inch elsewhere (half inch or under for northern Metro region south). Area of best isentropic ascent will then slide into the Thumb during the later part of the afternoon, with snow chances diminishing by the late evening.

Water vapor imagery shows one of the main features of interest for this forecast package, a pv feature just off the coast of California, set to pivot south across Baja California late in the day before ejecting east into TX/OK by early Monday morning. This will result in the development of a low pressure system interacting with a baroclinic zone, set to track north into the Ohio Valley between 00Z Tue - 12Z Tue. Plentiful moisture will eject north across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes ahead of the low pressure system and will bring the likely chance to see accumulating snowfall for portions of SE MI starting late Monday evening into Tuesday morning. Predictability of where the heaviest axis of snowfall (potential for 4+ inches) will fall remains low given it will remain sensitive to both the track of the low and trowal/deformation dynamics. WPC cluster phase space analysis shows the most likely location the axis will fall will be somewhere across southern lower Michigan or south into the northern Ohio Valley. As a result, preliminary forecasted snowfall totals of 3-5 inches will hold over the Metro region down to the Ohio border, with gradually decreasing totals north of this heavier forecasted area. Additional adjustments will be needed as the PV feature comes onshore and is better sampled by the NWS upper-air stations in the coming days.

Last, snow chances are expected to taper off later in the day on Tuesday with high pressure filling in from north to south through the midweek period. This will minimize precipitation chances to end the week while temperature trends remain seasonable.

MARINE .

Northwest winds still gusting up around 25 knots over Lake Huron will gradually diminish today, along with the snow showers. Still, the larger waves over the southern Lake Huron will lag with the unstable near surface profiles. Small craft advisories continue through 11 am for the northern/eastern tip of the Thumb region.

Light and variable winds set up this evening as a ridge of high pressure slides through tonight.

Light southerly flow expected on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes through Sunday night. A period of light warm advection snow likely in this time frame, but visibility's probably remaining at or above 2 miles.

A much stronger low will lift into the Ohio Valley late Monday, and will lead to increasing east-northeast/onshore flow (up around 25 knots), and small craft advisories may be needed by Monday evening and continued into Tuesday. Snow will likely overspread Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, and possibly as far north as southern third of lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . IRL DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 16 mi79 min W 11 G 14 20°F 1026.8 hPa (+1.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 31 mi39 min SW 8.9 G 11 21°F 1027.1 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi39 min WSW 5.1 G 8 23°F 1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
NW11
G17
NW10
G16
NW7
G16
NW9
G14
W8
G15
W10
G14
W11
G19
NW11
G14
W10
G14
NW11
G14
NW11
G16
NW12
G17
NW12
G15
NW13
G20
NW9
G17
NW11
G15
NW10
G17
NW12
NW9
G14
NW9
G12
NW8
G12
W10
G14
W9
G14
W7
G11
1 day
ago
W11
G19
SW9
G12
SW12
G21
SW8
G15
SW10
G14
W15
G25
W12
G19
W14
G22
W14
G19
W10
G16
W12
G20
W12
G22
W10
G17
NW15
G21
NW15
NW13
G18
NW11
G18
NW15
G22
NW15
G24
W14
G22
W9
G15
W13
G22
NW12
G17
NW11
G19
2 days
ago
W7
G13
SW10
G16
SW11
G14
SW12
G19
S12
G17
S10
G14
S10
G16
S13
G20
S16
G28
S21
G28
S15
G20
SW20
G30
SW17
G21
SW18
G26
SW13
G25
SW13
G18
SW14
G21
SW10
G17
W13
G18
W11
G15
SW15
W15
G20
W12
G21
W9
G16

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi24 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F12°F58%1027.4 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi26 minWSW 710.00 miFair24°F11°F57%1028.8 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI23 mi24 minW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy27°F12°F54%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrNW13
G16
NW10
G20
W10
G16
W11
G16
NW9
G15
W8W8W7W8W9
G16
W9W8W6W7W6W4W4W3W3CalmW4W3W4NW7
1 day agoW13
G19
SW11
G19
W14
G18
W14
G24
W12
G19
W16
G21
W11
G16
W10
G17
W10SW14
G19
W9W7
G14
NW11
G15
NW11
G15
NW5NW10
G18
NW10NW6NW9
G16
NW14
G19
W10
G15
W8W9
G15
W12
G18
2 days agoSW11
G16
S12
G16
S9S13
G21
SW10
G21
S12
G17
S13
G17
S10
G15
S14
G18
SW9
G19
SW12
G19
SW11
G22
SW11SW10
G17
SW7SW5SW5SW7SW8W9W10
G18
W11
G18
W11
G18
W13
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.