Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pinconning, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:01PM Sunday December 15, 2019 9:19 AM EST (14:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:42PMMoonset 11:06AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 332 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light snow showers early in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of flurries in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of flurries early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201912151615;;810663 FZUS53 KDTX 150832 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 332 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-151615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinconning, MI
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location: 43.75, -84.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 151035 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 535 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

AVIATION.

Cold westerly flow coming off Lake Michigan will maintain mostly MVFR stratus this morning with scattered light snow showers and flurries around as well. Gradual low level drying and daytime heating will ease ceilings into VFR as stratus lingers into early this evening. Low clouds to be replaced by mid clouds tonight as a weather system tracks through the Ohio Valley. Light snow is expected to pass just south of the DTW/YIP terminals.

For DTW . A dusting of snow is possible to start the taf period, with another very low chance of light snow late tonight (not included in taf).

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for cigs below 5000 ft today, then low. * High for ptype as snow.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 245 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

DISCUSSION .

Cold frontal passage early this morning will bring a period of light snow shower activity to the area, enhanced to some degree by plume of low level moisture off Lake Michigan. This activity will settle south through the forecast area during the pre-dawn hours and then generally be limited to areas south of M-59 or so by 12z. Any lingering lake effect plumes within cold air advection will also orient northwest to southeast into the far southern portions of the forecast area. This will be minor snow shower activity given rather shallow low level inversion heights. Drier low level airmass with building surface ridge will also limit (and eventually end) this activity.

Main focus of this forecast will then turn to synoptic system(s) late tonight into Monday night. Model solutions generally remain progressive with the upper flow pattern as 150 knot sub-tropical jet arcs east/northeast into the eastern CONUS around shortwave now over the central plains and well in advance of a notable Pacific shortwave now progressing onshore over Oregon and northern California. The lead jet dwarfs energy digging in behind the Pacific system (which is on the order of 100 knots in terms of the jetlet speed). This further supports a progress track for this system

The trajectory of the lead jet would keep the right entrance region south of the forecast area and support a general model consensus of keeping all/most of snow from these shortwaves to the south of lower Michigan. This will certainly be the case for the lead shortwave as snow shield expands east into the Ohio Valley late today/tonight with little to no pivot north as the wave tracks into zonal and slight confluent upper level flow.

There remains some uncertainty with regard to the second more dynamic shortwave now over the western CONUS which will generally maintain its amplitude a bit better than the lead wave. Shortwave energy will also be pivoting around upper low positioned over the far north central portions of Canada and digging through central Canada (and eventually into the northern Great Lakes). The initial interaction of these streams will allow the upper pattern to buckle over the plains with an upper trough developing. Shortwave ridging downstream of this, while subtle, may be enough to coax entrance region of the subtropical jet closer to the forecast area as the southern wave approaches.

So far, the satellite representation (including a decent look from GOES-15 in this fairly data void satellite area) of the lead vorticity spokes pivoting around northern upper low suggest this energy may be digging a bit sharper southwest into the Northwest Territories. If the trend were to persist, a slightly deeper mean upper trough would result and the odds that some light deformation snow from the southern system would lift into southern parts of the forecast area would increase. Given this, will not abandon the idea of some light accumulating snow over far southern areas completely despite a definite consolidation of most model solutions in that direction.

That said, there is likely a rather hard limit to now far north the deformation can stray as the overall pattern, including the northern stream energy, remains very progressive and will tend to support better phasing of the southern/northern streams to the east of the region. So, feel comfortable leaving northern portions of the forecast area dry with increasing chances of light accumulating southward (and particularly closer to the Michigan and Ohio state line).

A colder pattern becomes established into the middle of the week once this southern shortwave passes and the northern vorticity digs through Ontario and allow for a brief intrusion of arctic air into the Great Lakes. The coldest day will be Wednesday when temperatures hold in the 20s throughout the day. The overall upper pattern does remain progressive though and this bubble of arctic air moderates as the northern upper low pivots into the Canadian maritime. A wavy zonal pattern then expands east over the CONUS in the wake of this system and brings moderated Pacific air back east through the CONUS and cuts off any further intrusion of arctic air for the remainder of this forecast period (and beyond). This will result in moderating temperatures back to around 40 for week's end.

MARINE .

A Gale Warning will remain in effect through the morning hours as marginal gales affect the northern half of Lake Huron. Increased northwest flow is also bringing hazardous boating conditions for small crafts impacting the Thumb nearshore zones with elevated wave action. These conditions will persist into the afternoon. Winds and waves begin to ease up throughout the afternoon today as the low pressure system lifts further off to the northeast and replaced by a weak high pressure moves into the northern Great Lakes. Winds remain light across the lakes on tomorrow into Tuesday while a low pressure system stays to the south across the Ohio River Valley, but brings chances for snow showers to the southern lakes on the northern fringe of the system. A more impactful surge of arctic air with a polar low pressure system will arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ421-441- 442.

Gale Warning until noon EST today for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SF DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 16 mi80 min NW 14 G 17 28°F 1012.2 hPa (+4.1)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 31 mi40 min W 15 G 19 25°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi40 min NW 6 G 12 23°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi25 minWNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F19°F72%1014.2 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi27 minWNW 1110.00 miOvercast28°F17°F63%1015 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI23 mi25 minW 910.00 miOvercast30°F19°F64%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3CalmW5NW8W6NW7SW3W4W5W7W7W8W7W8
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1 day agoCalmS3S3S5S5S6S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE7SE8SE9
G14
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S11SW4CalmCalmS5S10
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S8S8S4S4S5S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.