Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pinconning, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:17PM Monday July 13, 2020 9:37 PM EDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:27AMMoonset 1:36PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 344 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable, then becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight veering to the west. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then backing to the southeast early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202007140315;;796321 FZUS53 KDTX 131944 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 344 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-140315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinconning, MI
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location: 43.75, -84.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 132253 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 653 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

AVIATION.

Lingering high based diurnal cu fades this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Clear skies and light winds favored overnight as high pressure builds into the region. This will maintain dry and stable conditions through Tuesday, with simply a scattered to perhaps briefly broken coverage of diurnal cu above 5000 ft for the afternoon/early evening period. Winds light from the south during the daylight period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 326 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

DISCUSSION .

Diurnal cumulus will dissipate this evening leaving mostly clear skies as surface high builds into the region. Another tranquil day on Tuesday with some warming. There is enough boundary layer moisture to have more diurnal cu Tuesday afternoon, but less than today. Wednesday looks to be dry for the forecast area now as the timing of the next system is even later. Additionally, convection across the upper lakes on Tuesday night is expected to dissipate across northern Lower and easter Upper early Wednesday. Besides some debris cloud for the northern part of the forecast area, diurnal cu is expect to be few to scattered. While guidance temps look good through Tuesday night, did go with the higher guidance sources for Wednesday with more sun expected which puts us very close to 90.

Thunderstorms develop across WI and IL on Wednesday afternoon and into the evening ahead of a good mid level wave. Appears to be enough organization to the convection that a surface low develops in response in all of the models besides the ECMWF. Depending on the strength of the wave and surface development, that could help organize the convection even more with a good deformation axis and upper jet dynamics. There is a good surge of moisture as Precipitable Water reaches 1.5 to nearly 2 inches. This could lead to a band of heavy rain as the system moves across southern Lower Michigan Wednesday night. As will most convection 66 to 72 hours out, confidence at this point is low, but enough potential to start highlighting. Severe threat looks to be limited. ML CAPEs reach 500 to 1000 J/kg Wednesday evening and then slowly erode with nightfall Wed. night.

Could have some residual showers and storms Thursday morning, but otherwise dry conditions expected for Thursday afternoon and Friday as 500 mb heights really start to rise and 850 mb temps reach the lower 20s C by Friday evening. Then for the weekend into Monday, southeast MI resides on the northern edge of the 500 mb ridge with several small waves rippling along it. Similar to the last heat wave, will have temperatures in the 90 to 95 range and a chance. of thunderstorms each day of the weekend. The difference with this heat wave is that the dew points may be a few degrees warmer than the last, especially late in the forecast.

MARINE .

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period resulting in dry conditions through at least early Wednesday. Northerly flow will subside overnight tonight before flow increases slightly from the southeast on Tuesday. The next chance for unsettled weather is expected Wednesday night as a low pressure system moves in from the west.

HYDROLOGY .

There is a strong likelihood of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night as a vigorous shortwave disturbance tracks through the area. Total rainfall from this system looks to reach half an inch in many locations with localized spots possibly receiving an inch. There is a potential for a local band of heavy rain in excess of an inch if this system is strong enough and pulls in enough moisture. This could lead to a localized flooding threat Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . RBP MARINE . SP HYDROLOGY . RBP

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 16 mi37 min E 16 G 18 72°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.7)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 31 mi57 min ENE 12 G 13 70°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 46 mi57 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi42 minENE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F59°F62%1015.2 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI16 mi44 minENE 710.00 miFair75°F52°F45%1015 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI23 mi42 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F59°F61%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIKW

Wind History from IKW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NW4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4N7N7N6
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N6N5N6NW8W5NE4N7N8NE5
1 day agoN6N7N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW6NW10
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2 days agoN10N10N8N6N7N7N6CalmCalmNW4NW6NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.