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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Wednesday evening...
Through early evening..Southwest winds around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots late at night, then veering west toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday..West winds around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late at night, then building to 2 to 4 feet toward daybreak.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 112021 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 321 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Short Term/Long Term/Marine

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Very limited sensible weather in the short term period of the forecast. The main feature of note is a cold front that will likely slide through dry on Tuesday. The upper pattern will feature a trough over the Great Lakes through the short term, with no major shortwaves set to affect the GRR forecast area. Much of the time the deeper cyclonic flow will be set up to the north of the area.

The main issue in the short term really comes down to cloud cover, specifically lake effect stratocumulus. Stratocu production will be possible in all three periods of the short term (tonight through Tuesday night) as enough instability will be present over the lake. Feel there will be a good deal of cloud cover both Tonight and on Tuesday, with improvement possible on Tuesday night. Tuesday night ridging begins to take over and the relative humidity levels drop considerably in the 925-850mb layer. Skies will trend from partly/mostly cloudy tonight and Tuesday to mostly clear/partly cloudy Tuesday night.

Temperatures in the short term will be near normals for this time of year.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure will dominate the region for a good portion of the extended forecast leading to dry weather through the end of the work week. Warm air advection along the back side of the high pressure will support a slight warming trend into the end of the week with highs starting off in the mid 30s mid-week, then into the 40s for Thursday and Friday as winds shift more southerly.

Precipitation chances increase Friday afternoon into Saturday as a trough and associated cold front moves in from the north. Overall QPF looks limited, so not much precipitation is expected at this time. In addition, mild temperatures should keep any precipitation that does form as rain so any potential impacts look limited at this time.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

A solid MVFR cloud deck remains in place over lower Michigan, but clouds will scour out into VFR late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Winds will shift more southwesterly through the night, then will turn westerly after 12z Tuesday. Increasing winds are expected this evening through the overnight to around 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 320 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

We will leave the marine headlines as they are with a Gale Warning in our northern most zone north of Pentwater. A Small Craft Advisory is in place in all of our other zones into Wednesday. Once the gale force wind threat is over late tonight, the northern most zone will need to transition to a Small Craft Advisory as well. Waves will remain near or above 4 feet through much of Wednesday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>848.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ849.

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