Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 5:11PM Friday December 4, 2020 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:59PMMoonset 11:47AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 405 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Through early evening..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds around 5 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Waves less than 1 foot.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:202012050900;;842050 FZUS53 KGRR 042105 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-050900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 042032 CCA AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 332 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 326 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

- Saturday through Monday Near Normal Temps and Dry (mostly)

- Warmer but Continued Dry Mid-week

- Warm and Rainy Next Weekend then some Snow


DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 326 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

-- Saturday through Monday Near Normal Temps and Dry (mostly)--

We are on the far west side of a fairly deep upper low centered near Newfoundland. Shortwaves from the North Pacific wave train continue to climb over the upstream ridge then dive into the west side of the circulation around the Newfoundland centered upper low. There are at least three of these shortwaves that rotate through our area into Tuesday before the system gets pushed far enough east to no longer impact our weather. Being so far on the west edge of this system means we do not have deep moisture so not much happens as each shortwave comes through.

There will be a fairly impressive storm this weekend over the northeast as the southern stream system merges with the Newfoundland system. That will be well east of our area through. As is typical of this sort of pattern with a deep east coast storm tracking up the east coast, we get mostly northerly surface winds, which will keep any snow showers mostly off shore through the weekend.

The primary, northern stream cold front,comes through this evening. That will serve to temperatures 5 to 10 degrees for the next thee days compared to the previous few days.

Due to primarily north winds and marginally cold air with a shallow inversion height, any lake effect snow showers will be over Lake Michigan and that may at time impact the far southwest Van Buren County and Big and Little Sable Points.

Skies will be mostly cloudy this evening with the cold front coming through but once it is through skies should at least partly clear and stay that way through Monday.

-- Warmer but Continued Dry Mid-week--

Expect an extended period of warm (for this time of year) and dry weather from Wednesday through Friday. As I wrote about yesterday, that 180 knot to 190 knot extended East Asian Jet feature, near the Dateline around 35N, now, will reach British Columbia Sunday night into Monday. That powerful jet core will force the system over eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States to move east, across the north Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Which then allows a shortwave ridge to move over the central United States and into central Canada, nearly to the Arctic Circle (so much of any cold air). That will keep us with a fair amount of sunshine and temperatures more than 10 degrees above normal.

-- Warm and Rainy Next Weekend then some Snow--

Of course the pattern is somewhat, if only slowly, progressive. Thus, that strong Pacific systems Rossby Wave energy will reach the Great Lakes next weekend. It's to early to say how this will all really play out but the latest model runs of both the ECMWF and GFS have a fairly deep low tracking west of us. I believe, one way or the other, we will see a fair amount of rain from this system.

Once that system moves east of here, it does look like some much colder,with more winter like air, will follow and we may then start seeing snow here (likely not till early to the middle part of the following week).

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

Patchy MVFR will be possible into the start of this forecast period particularly for more northern TAF sites such as MKG. Otherwise expect some scattered cloud decks around 2,500 feet with higher stratus for much of this afternoon and early evening. As a front continues to lower south through the evening and overnight, patchy MVFR can be expected for some sites. Ceilings look to lift near Saturday morning after 12z, although areas further north such as GRR and MKG may see some prolonged MVFR ceilings. Meanwhile winds will shift northerly into the overnight hours.

MARINE. Issued at 326 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

We plan to continue our headlines as is, which means only the Small Craft Advisory over the northern part of our near shore waters will continue through tonight and that is largely for waves continuing to be in the 3 to 5 foot range into early morning Saturday. Once the cold front is solidly through winds will diminish to 10 to 20 knots by mid morning Saturday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Saturday for LMZ848-849.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ844>847.



SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . Thielke MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 12 mi56 min NNE 2.9 G 8.9 38°F 26°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi58 min N 13 G 17 38°F 1014.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 33 mi58 min N 19 G 22 37°F 1015.2 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi28 min N 9.9 G 12 37°F 1015.1 hPa26°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW8
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SW7
G13
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1 day
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W10
G14
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G14
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G14
W7
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N6
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G9
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G7
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G13
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SW7
G10
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi43 minN 510.00 miOvercast37°F27°F67%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15
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W12W13
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W9
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G15
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W10W9
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W8
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W6NW7NW5NW3N10N5NE7N12
G17
N7N9
G15
N10
G14
N11
G16
1 day agoW7W6W6W8W9W7W8W7
G14
W8W8
G14
NW7W5W5W7W6W9W9W7
G14
SW12
G15
SW14
G17
SW11
G20
W9
G16
SW10SW14
G17
2 days agoN13
G17
N13
G17
N9N9N7N10
G14
N7N8
G14
N8N6NW5NW7NW3CalmNW3NW5W7W8W10
G15
W8SW10SW9SW7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.