Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pentwater, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 9:17PM Friday May 29, 2020 10:13 PM EDT (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 1:26AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ848 Whitehall To Pentwater Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ848 Expires:202005300900;;964315 FZUS53 KGRR 300205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ848-300900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pentwater, MI
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location: 43.78, -86.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 300044 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 844 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

- Cool Weekend Still on Track With Frost Potential Sunday AM

- Warmer Next Week With a Few Chances for Rain

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

--Cool Weekend Still on Track With Frost Potential Sunday AM--

No significant changes to our forecast for this weekend. With 850 mb temperatures dropping into the single digits Saturday we should see afternoon cumulus develop with perhaps some sprinkles or light showers at times away from our coastal region. The cumulus will be fairly shallow so we are not expecting much in the way of rainfall and most locations should stay dry.

Frost potential still exists Sunday morning mainly across interior Central Lower Michigan. This region will likely get down into the low to mid 30s so frost looks like a good bet. Elsewhere, many locations will bottom out in the upper 30s. These types of temperatures should not damage agriculture. Near and north of U.S. 10, some spots could flirt with freezing. Consider taking precautions Saturday night to protect your vegetation especially in this region.

For climatological perspective, the record low temperature for Grand Rapids on Sunday is 36 degrees in 1966. The ECMWF has 38 for a low, so that is not far off from record territory.

--Warmer Next Week With a Few Chances for Rain Mainly at Night--

Model guidance continues to indicate rising upper level heights early next week with a surge of warmer air as seen at 925/850 mb. On Monday, there will likely be some showers and thunderstorms across Wisconsin. While some models show this activity spreading into northern Lower MI and the U.P., the N/S oriented 1000-500 mb thickness pattern and a veering 40 kt LLJ across the Midwest into Monday night suggest this activity will try to work into our region. You can also tell by the mean 850-300 mb wind that shower and thunderstorm activity in Wisconsin will try to move SE into our region Monday night. Total rain amounts are in question with ensemble guidance still fairly scattershot with which locations may get the heavier precipitation.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the pattern looks similar to me. One difference is the MUCAPE is projected to be higher across the region. There may be a better risk for thunderstorms with a similar looking LLJ moving in and higher precipitable water content than Monday night. Some heavier rainfall may materialize, according to the ECMWF, but the GFS and GEM hold off this pattern until later Wednesday into Wednesday night. The spread in ensemble guidance still casts uncertainty on how this will play out. At this point, there is a decent chance that much of the daylight hours next week will be dry with just some of these nocturnal events to focus on.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 843 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. Skies this evening will be clear to scattered for the most part, but there are broken clouds moving in off Lake Michigan with ceilings in the 5,000ft to 7,000ft. After daybreak on Saturday ceilings will likely lower or fill in around the 3,500ft to 4,000ft layer. Again though conditions will be VFR. We are not expecting any restriction to visibility.

Winds will taper off considerably in the next hour or two in all areas to northwest at 4 to 10 knots. Winds will pick up again Saturday afternoon out of the northwest at 10 to 20 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Winds and waves should largely be non-hazardous to small craft this weekend. Looks like the highest waves will be Saturday evening into Sunday morning especially from Holland southward when conditions could approach SCA criteria.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Rivers continue declining across the region but high flows are still noted at several locations. The Grand River at Robinson Twp is still above flood stage. All other rivers have fallen back below flood stage. The dry weekend will allow rivers to continue retreating.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Hoving DISCUSSION . Hoving AVIATION . Duke HYDROLOGY . Hoving MARINE . Hoving


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 20 mi93 min W 8.9 G 11 56°F 1016.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 33 mi93 min WSW 7 G 8.9 56°F 1017.3 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 39 mi43 min N 8 G 8.9 58°F 1016.8 hPa51°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI12 mi78 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast58°F51°F77%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmN6NW5NW3W3W5CalmCalmCalmW3W5W8W9NW8N8N6N6NW10NW5W6W6W4NW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4S7SW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE4S3CalmSE3E3CalmS5SW3SW7W6W8SW8SW6W7SW6SW7W4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.