Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 8:41 AM   Moonset 12:21 AM

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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 336 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Today - NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late this morning, then becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

ANZ100 336 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure remains broadly centered over eastern canada, providing fair weather as it extends down along the new england coastline meanwhile a low pressure system is passing well outside of the area, tracking nne toward the east end of nova scotia. With the latter system and its expansive pressure footprint departing, high pressure will then build and center over the western atlantic early in the coming week bringing a more southerly flow back across the waters. Low pressure approaches the coast by mid- week.

FXUS61 KGYX 120816 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 416 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure passes south of the region today, with another chance of afternoon showers. A more widespread period of showers and rain is likely beginning Monday night into Wednesday. Conditions dry out late in the week as New England sees a period between systems, and then may turn unsettled again by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Plenty of high clouds today as low pressure skirts south of the area. Additional convergence should allow for more scattered showers today, with the greatest concentration over the mountains and foothills. These should then track into the interior and coast by late afternoon and the early evening hours.

Instability today will still be capped by a temp inversion around 650mb, while it is deeper today than Sat, don't expect much more impact from precip other than a downpour directly under the shower and maybe gusts around 25 mph. Graupel potential seems limited, and would be reliant on lifting assistance (perhaps along terrain or seabreeze boundary). HRRR probabilities do pools the greatest amount of CAPE towards the ME capitol region.

Despite another increase in diurnal cloud cover, temps push towards 60 today. With weak low level winds, expect seabreeze to make its way inland early this afternoon. This will keep cooler temps in the 50s for much of the immediate coast an inland a few miles.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Showers dissipate through the evening. There should be less in the way of high and mid clouds tonight into Monday, with low cloud slowly dissipating from daytime convection. With light winds once again, this will bring the chance for more frost tonight amid some pockets of good radiational cooling. Fog may also form where daytime showers wet the surface.

Monday will see mostly dry conditions, but showers will be moving towards the area come the afternoon. These may be starved of forcing and moisture, thus have kept slight chance PoPs through the afternoon. Monday will mark a step change in warmer temperatures, with highs pushing into the mid to upper 60s for much of the area despite increasing clouds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Overview...

Low pressure moves closer Monday night and Tuesday, spreading showers and rain into much of the area at times into at least Wednesday. The system moves away on Thursday, with a dry day looking most likely on Friday before another system moves toward the area on Saturday.

Details...

By Monday night and Tuesday, moisture drawn northward by southern low pressure begins to interact with a cold front associated with the Canadian low pressure system. Showers expand across northern and western areas Monday night and Tuesday, but likely won't expand into southern and coastal areas until Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the front sags southward.

The low passes well to the south on Wednesday, with the northern edge of the rainfall near or into southern forecast areas. Wednesday and Wednesday night are trickier forecasts, with the chance that the rain remains to our south most of the day. Rain looks more likely than not at this point, but it would only take a little more of a southward jog of this system to leave Wednesday mostly dry. However, if it does trend more northward, periods of showers or rain would likely linger into Thursday.

With this slow moving pattern and multiple cut off low pressure systems, it looks likely to raining somewhere in our CWA for several days from Monday through Wednesday, but not everywhere at once. There are likely to be breaks in the rain and clouds, similar to what we've seen the last couple of days, but are difficult to time out at this point.

Friday looks like the next chance for a mostly dry day as New England has its next best chance to be between systems. But then by next weekend, it looks like another cut off low will gradually spin northwestward, spreading moisture toward New England. High pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will attempt to thwart this system toward the southwest, but there are too many other low pressure systems to get through first before the details of this one become more clear.



AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...VFR today, with SHRA across most interior ME terminals. Showers should stay north of southern NH TAF sites. Patchy fog will be possible tonight where these showers pass. VFR continues Monday, although ceilings will be lowering west to east as additional showers approach the area.

Long Term...Showers likely accompany MVFR ceilings Monday night and Tuesday across northern and western terminals. These restrictions spread to the remaining terminals late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Showers and MVFR ceilings likely linger across coastal and southern terminals on Wednesday, with some improvement across northern and western terminals more likely.
Conditions gradually improve toward VFR everywhere by Thursday, and linger through at least Friday night.

MARINE
Short Term...Below SCA conditions as high pressure continues to drift overhead. Low pressure passes south of the waters today, with some showers nearing the coast this evening. More breezy SE winds arrive for Monday.

Long Term...A slow moving low pressure system and cold front approach the waters Tuesday and Wednesday, with SCA conditions possible on Tuesday with southwesterly flow. This low passes south of the waters Wednesday and Thursday, with the front likely crossing slowly Wednesday and Wednesday night.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ012-018>020- 033.
NH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NHZ004-006-010.
MARINE...None.

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Cundy Harbor
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Sun -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:36 AM EDT     10.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:06 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:25 PM EDT     8.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:14 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cundy Harbor, New Meadows River, Maine, Tide feet

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Sun -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:31 AM EDT     -0.98 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:05 PM EDT     0.86 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:52 PM EDT     -0.67 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots

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