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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 403 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the afternoon.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 082120 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 420 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

DISCUSSION

Clouds have speared into Lower Michigan today on the nose of strengthening low-level southwesterly warm advection. Moist system- relative isentropic ascent is generally confined to the lowest 7 kft AGL as ample dry air aloft precedes cloud development through the evening hours. Low cloud depths thicken with time tonight as saturation layer improves, but not expecting much more than light drizzle before midnight. A secondary (and more robust) plume of ThetaE begins to lift north of the state-line after 03Z. Models show better agreement in light rainfall beginning late tonight and very early Saturday morning as the slope of the isentropic surface steepens.

Strong upstream dynamics embedded within an energetic longwave trough across central CONUS interfaces with a closed low over the Upper Midwest Saturday into Sunday as a thermodynamically homogeneous warm sector/conveyor extends from the Tennessee Valley into The Thumb marked by 850 mb temps near 7C (above 90th percentile). This suggests higher confidence in high temperatures climbing into at least the mid, if not upper, 50s Saturday. Latest NWP solutions continue to drift the axis of strongest CVA further west which translates to greater spatial displacement of the surface low and QPF bullseye closer to western Lake Michigan or eastern Wisconsin. Winds veer west-southwesterly Saturday afternoon with the passage of the system's cold front. Forecast soundings reveal some lag between the development of a shallow mixed-layer with a flip to cold advection and the arrival of drier air. Low-grade instability arises within several thousand feet of saturation that should be enough to touch off a few additional showers anchored to the frontal slope/FGEN until stratus settles in through the overnight hours.

A subset of solutions continue to glance precip through from the Ohio Valley system late Saturday night and into Monday morning, but most of this activity remains too far east to be of much impact locally. Did include Chance PoPs with a steady transition from rain to snow as column cooling extends into the daylight hours Sunday. As temperatures crawl into the mid to upper 30s Sunday, any full transition to snow will produce inconsequential accumulations should enough snow fall on grassy/elevated surfaces through the first half of the day. Potential then exists for lake effect snow streamers Sunday night into Monday with cyclonic northwesterly flow.
Confidence in this outcome is rather low as bands conditionally struggle to extended into the forecast area based on current projected low-level wind trajectories. Monday should be the coldest day of the forecast period with lows in the mid 30s under thermal troughing. Next ridge and accompanying moderation in thickness values arrives Monday night into Tuesday while dry conditions likely prevail though mid-week with near-normal temperatures.

MARINE

The central Great Lakes are under the influence of a southerly pressure gradient within the warm sector of a system over the northern plains. The relatively mild air is keeping stable conditions across the marine zones and expect wind gust potential to stay below 30 knots through this evening. A low pressure system is then expected to develop tonight and lift out of the the mid Mississippi River Valley and arrive over Lake Michigan tomorrow morning. This system will drag a cold front across the central Great Lakes bringing widespread rainfall and an uptick in south-southwest wind speeds along the front during the afternoon/evening. Wind gusts may reach gales occasionally, but the expected shorter duration of these gusts precludes any headlines at this time. Troughing overtakes the region with west to northwest winds ushering colder air for the remainder of the weekend with the main frontal system off to our east. Precipitation chances will be limited to lake effect snow showers Sunday evening into Monday across the southeastern half of Lake Huron with the favorable flow. The cold air brings greater instability over the lakes, but gust potential should top out around 25 knots or less for the early week period with a weak surface pressure gradient field.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1202 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

AVIATION...

Moisture will continue to funnel north within increased south to southwest flow in advance of developing low pressure to the west.
Lower VFR ceilings in the 3500-4500 foot layer will lower to MVFR overnight tonight into Saturday with scattered rain showers also increasing in coverage, especially by 12z or so Saturday morning.
Ultimately, cigs in the 1000-1500 foot range will predominate as this shower activity maximizes during the day Saturday as the aforementioned low pressure tracks north-northeast through Lake Michigan into northern lower MI. Wind gusts will reach 18-20 kts at times this afternoon into this evening and then peak closer to 25 knots by midday Saturday within strongest pressure gradient.

For DTW...Ceilings will oscillate near 5kft this afternoon into this evening and then lower solidly into the MVFR range overnight into Saturday as scattered rain showers work into the area. While a few sprinkles may occur overnight, most activity will focus on Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet this afternoon. High tonight into Saturday.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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