Harbor Beach, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harbor Beach, MI

June 18, 2024 7:23 AM EDT (11:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 9:13 PM
Moonrise 5:15 PM   Moonset 2:06 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ441 Port Austin To Harbor Beach Mi- 338 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then veering to the northwest after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor Beach, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 181007 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 607 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across most of the area through the week.

- Chances of thunderstorms will continue each day of the week. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with locally heavy downpours.

AVIATION

Airmass recovery gets underway this morning after a stormy evening.
Where marginally MVFR fog develops, visibilities should improve before or shortly after the 12Z TAF issuance. Diurnal cumulus response expected with high based VFR clouds AOA 5 kft AGL this afternoon before convection initiates within an unstable/uncapped airmass. Coverage of storms carries uncertainty with the better CVA along the edge of the ridge forces storm development further north (FNT/MBS), but the denser instability reservoir and lake breeze interactions will have greater influence over the Metro Detroit terminals. Given those considerations, kept the inherited TEMPO groups for TSRA with MVFR visibility reductions. Winds generally remain AOB 10 knots with southerly flow, but strong gusty winds and microburst potential exists with the deepest convective storms.
Storms are expected to diminish quickly around 00Z this evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Another round of storms expected this afternoon with potential for wet microbursts should stronger storms develop over/near D21 airspace. Coverage will be scattered in nature.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for thunderstorms from 19 to 23Z.

* Moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 ft, conditional with thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

DISCUSSION...

Amplification of the East Coast mid level ridge will be ongoing today into Wednesday, with the ridge becoming more elongated as it stretches across the Ohio Valley during the end of the week. Short wave energy rotating along the western periphery of this ridge will advance across western Lower Mi today. Hi res model solutions generally suggest this will set up a thermal/instability gradient across the western portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
This and potential lake breeze convergence zones across the eastern portions of the area will provide enhanced boundary layer convergence to support additional rounds of convection, mainly this afternoon and evening. ML Cape values projected near 2k J/kg with model soundings showing respectable CAPE density within an uncapped environment will again be supportive of localized strong/severe convection despite relatively week deep layer shear profiles. The depth of the warm layer, with PWATs around 1.8 inches will support some locally high rain totals as well.

Expectations are for temps to be a little cooler today compared to yesterday given high clouds and the chances for an earlier convective release. Forecast highs in the low 90s with dewpoints near 70 will still push heat indices well into the 90s. The humidity will sustain another warm night tonight as lows will likely hold in the 70s. Some building/expansion of the mid level ridge across the eastern lakes will sustain heat and humidity across Se Mi Wednesday.
Timing and coverage of convective development within a moderately unstable and uncapped atmosphere will play heavily into forecast highs. Thermal profiles suggest low to mid 90s for highs Wed with heat indices well into the 90s to around 100. The potential for ML CAPE values to exceed 2k J/kg with little to no capping inversion will again support locally strong/severe convection.

A little more elongation in the mid level ridge noted in the 00Z model suite increases the chances for a southward push of slightly cooler air from the north on Thursday as high pressure expands across the northern lakes. Short wave impulses embedded within the westerly flow with a lingering instability gradient over southern Lower Mi also looks favorable for additional convection. Therefore, the heat headlines will extend only through Wednesday evening. A longer wavelength trough forecast in the northern stream over the weekend will attempt to drive the front back northward as a warm front. The potential for convection will however support a low confidence forecast on temps during the first half of the weekend.
The passage of the mid level trough and associated cold front will then support cooler and less humid conditions by the end of the forecast.

MARINE...

Southwest winds will continue to advect hot and humid air into the Central Great Lakes through the mid week period. High degree of surface stability with the cooler waters should keep wind speeds under 25 knots through the rest of the work week. The exception will be in and near and strong thunderstorms which develop. Timing and location will be highly uncertain, but the typical peak heating of the day into early evening hours will be favored. Indications are the surface frontal boundary will be sinking south Thursday and Friday as seasonably strong high pressure tracks through Ontario.
This will allow for light northeast/northerly flow (~15 knots) over Lake Huron. Airmass will remain warm, thus any wave build up with the longer fetch remains below 4 feet.

HYDROLOGY...

A moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region through the end of the week. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day this week. The most intense thunderstorms have the potential to produce rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches over a short period of time, resulting in urban and low lying area flooding. Uncertainty in specifics for both timing and potential for flooding precludes issuance of a flood watch.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for MIZ048-049-054-055-062- 063.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for MIZ061-069-070-076.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 1 mi54 minSW 5.1G8 76°F 60°F30.0068°F
KP58 15 mi89 minE 5.1 72°F 29.9966°F
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 33 mi44 minSSE 7.8G9.7 61°F 57°F30.0459°F
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 37 mi84 minSSW 9.7 66°F 61°F1 ft30.04
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 49 mi44 minSSE 16G17 74°F 30.01
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 51 mi44 minS 4.1G7 67°F 30.00


Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBAX HURON COUNTY MEMORIAL,MI 18 sm28 minS 0310 smClear73°F66°F78%30.05
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Wind History graph: P58
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Detroit, MI,




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