Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cleveland, WI

UPDATE
Issued 1032 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Middle to high clouds will continue to spread across the area today. East southeast winds will keep highs in the 50s closer to Lake Michigan, with middle 60s well inland. Highs will be similar for Thursday and Friday, with east southeast winds.

Rain showers should gradually spread northeast into and through the area later this evening into Thursday morning, as low pressure passes by just to the southeast of the area. Forecast soundings are showing deep saturation during this time with modest upward vertical motion, so will keep higher PoPs (60 percent or higher) for most of the area. There may be a few rumbles of thunder in far southeast Wisconsin, though most of the storms should remain to the south.

A trailing 500 mb shortwave trough may bring some more scattered shower activity Thursday afternoon. Another slower moving 500 mb shortwave trough moving through the region Friday will keep some shower chances going through then.

Wood

SHORT TERM
Issued 336 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Today through Thursday:

An area of low clouds developed near Green Bay late last evening and slowly expanded into east central WI overnight. The trajectory keeps them confined to Sheboygan and Fond du Lac counties early this morning, and then mixing will help them dissipate by mid morning. Temperatures dropped into the upper 30s across much of east central and southeast WI thanks to cool air from Lake Michigan on slightly enhanced northeast winds.
Winds were probably too high to allow for frost development.

There will be a large difference in temps between the lakeshore and western Waukesha County (and north-south of there) due to a steady east wind off Lake Michigan all day. Inland temps should reach the mid to upper 60s from Madison and westward.

Dewpoints are in the 30s and they are not expected to make much headway into the 40s today, per the upstream obs in IA and IL.
Therefore, min RH values will be in the 35 to 40 percent range.

The arrival time of the precip today looks slower than previously forecast due to all the dry air in place over WI. The convection ongoing over MO will lift into the Upper Midwest later today. However, the nose of the LLJ (and vorticity advection with a southern stream upper trough) that are driving that convection is expected to split around southern WI. This means that one wing of the precip will track into northeast IL today and lower Michigan this evening; the other wing of precip will track northward into southern MN, following the right entrance region of the upper jet and a mid level shortwave trough.

Eventually, the southern stream shortwave trough will push into the mid Mississippi River valley and a more connected flow from there into southeast WI will develop overnight. Thus, that is when the more widespread showers will arrive in southeast and east central WI. However, the disjointed upper levels between the southern stream upper trough and northern stream upper trough means that south central WI and central WI will likely have lower precip amounts from this system. Total rainfall amounts are forecast to range from around 0.75 inch in southeast/east central WI to 0.35 inch in south central/central WI.

A surface low will develop over central IL as the MS River valley mid level shortwave trough gets closer. That surface low will slide across southern Lower MI during the day Thursday, and the steadier showers over southeast WI will taper off from west to east from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.

Given that we will be on the northwest periphery of the main forcing of this system, our chance for thunder is very low. The steeper mid level lapse rates should be limited to right along the WI/IL border late tonight through Thursday. Elsewhere, lapse rates look moist adiabatic and thus quite stable.

Temps Thursday will remain cooler by the lake, especially toward east central WI due to steady northeast winds. Inland highs will be in the upper 50s, except lower 60s near the WI/IL border.

Cronce

LONG TERM
Issued 336 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Meanwhile, the northern stream upper trough will be slow to make eastward progress. This will bring additional light showers to southern WI Thursday night. While shower chances continue through Friday due to the upper trough passing overhead, the dry air surging in from the north may win out and keep us dry. Any precip will not be a steady rain, but instead characterized by several waves of light to moderate showers, as various shortwaves rotate through the larger scale upper trough. Highs Friday will be a touch cooler, with readings in the mid to upper 50s to around 60.

The main upper level trough is expected to pass through the area Friday night, with high pressure building into the region on Saturday. Guidance is suggesting that an omega block will set up across the CONUS, with deep troughs/upper lows over the eastern and western US, and a strong ridge over the central part of the country. This suggests a stretch of quiet and warm weather as high pressure slowly drifts eastward, with highs early next week approaching the upper 70s and low 80s.

Boxell

AVIATION
Issued 1032 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Middle to high clouds will continue to spread across the area today into this evening. Ceilings will lower to below 2000 feet AGL, and eventually to below 1000 feet AGL, once the more steady rain showers move northeast into the area later tonight into Thursday morning. These ceilings should linger into the rest of Thursday into Thursday evening.

Visibility should be in the 2 to 5 mile range with the more steady rain showers. There may be a few rumbles of thunder in far southeast Wisconsin, though most of the storms should remain to the south.

The rain showers should gradually spread northeast into and through the area later this evening into Thursday morning, as low pressure passes by just to the southeast of the area. More scattered shower activity may occur Thursday afternoon, with chances lingering into Friday.

Light east southeast winds should remain today, before becoming east and light tonight. As low pressure passes by to the southeast of the area overnight into Thursday, light winds will become more northeast to north.

Wood

MARINE
Issued 1032 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

High pressure around 30.3 inches will cross Lake Huron today.
Steady easterly winds will persist through tonight, then increase Thursday as low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks from Illinois to southern Lower Michigan.

Winds will become northerly Thursday afternoon and westerly Friday afternoon, as the low pressure system exits the region.
High pressure around 30.2 inches will then return to the Upper Great Lakes for the weekend, bringing quiet weather and light winds.

Cronce/Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.