Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cleveland, WI

UPDATE
Issued 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A surface front is stalled over southern WI today, but the precipitation coverage is lower than what we had anticipated for this morning. Currently, the showers tracking through central WI are right along the 850mb frontal boundary where there is weak convergence but not much warm air advection. There are a few widely-scattered, light showers elsewhere in southern WI, but nothing organized. We are in a moisture-rich environment but with no organized forcing and some mid level dry air.

The deeper moisture and better forcing is focused well to our south. The more widespread thunderstorms are along the nose of the 850mb low level jet in eastern IA, and coincident with 925-850mb warm air advection and frontogenesis.
That area will slide into north central IL and clip south central and southeast WI later this afternoon, but the overall forcing is expected to weaken. With the 850mb front still over our area, we could see afternoon showers all the way up to Fond du Lac and Sheboygan so I added low pops there.

Models are showing an increase in the instability over southeast WI this afternoon, so any showers that can make it into southern WI will have a chance for lightning. With weak mid level lapse rates and low shear, storms will not be severe; lightning and heavy downpours are the threats today. Precipitable water values are between 1.5 and 2 inches over southeast WI, so any showers will be efficient rain producers.

Cronce

SHORT TERM
Issued 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

Upper level divergence and WAA to our west in northern IA is sustaining rain and thunderstorm development late this evening.
Both the upper level DIV and WAA are expected to slowly move east with time. This will be a gradual process similar to the motion of the sfc cold front that is draped across southern Wisconsin. As these features pivot across southern Wisconsin tonight into Wednesday morning, more widespread rain is expected across the area. PWATs are fairly high across the region around 1.5 to 2 inches. This could lead heavy rain/downpours with any shower. Any training or slow storm motion could result in some urban and small stream impacts with flooding.

Heading into Wednesday afternoon, the aforementioned cold front is expected to be around the WI/IL border which will work as a focus point for additional scattered shower/storm development.
The chances for additional development for areas south of Interstate 94 is around 30-50%. Areas along and north of interstate 94 should stay fairly dry Wednesday afternoon and beyond.

Heading into Wednesday night any lingering rain/storms are expected to come to an end as the sfc front sags south of the area and high pressure begins to return to the Great Lakes Region.

The largest concern with any showers and storms by far will be the heavy rain and risk for flooding should any training occur.
Small streams and urban areas are the most likely at risk for flooding. This should leave any impacts fairly minor and localized. There is a lack of shear in this environment and if cloud cover persists from tonight into Wednesday afternoon without any break, instability will also be lacking Wednesday.
Just not a great environment for any stronger to severe storms.
If any stronger storms do develop, gusty winds would become the main concern. Any storms that becomes tall enough with the high PWATs will likely be water loaded and could produce some downburst winds. But with limited instability and shear the chances are very low for any isolated storm to get tall enough to do that. A low but non zero chance.

Patterson

LONG TERM
Issued 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Thursday through Monday:

Behind the cold front, high pressure is expected to briefly build into the Great Lakes Region bringing quiet weather for Thursday.
Light and variable winds, mostly clear skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday. As the high pressure moves out of the area heading into Friday, south to southwest winds will return and so to will the WAA. Hot and humid conditions are expected to return to the state with highs in the 80s and dewpoints expected to climb back into the 60s. A weak cold front is expected to move across the state which will bring a low chance (10-20%) for rain and a storm or two for Friday night.

Heading into the weekend, zonal flow is expected to set up across the northern US, including the Great Lakes Region. This puts Wisconsin in a situation where multiple shortwave troughs could move through the larger scale flow. This unsettle pattern is fairly consistent across guidance, however when the shortwaves move through and the strength of each varies. Rain and storms chances will be persistent Saturday afternoon through early next week. Monday looks to have the best chances for rain around 40-70% otherwise the rest of the precip chances are around 20-40%. As we get closer in time to this unsettled period, the rain chances should become more defined in time, duration and intensity. Not anticipating any all day rains at this point.
Uncertainty remains for any stronger to severe storms as well.
Some guidance wants to hit at stronger storms, but these same runs are the ones that want to hit at potential heat indices in the 90s. Stuck to the average among guidance for the forecast given all the uncertainties.

Patterson

AVIATION
Issued 1145 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The MVFR ceilings and showers are slower to move into southern WI today, but the isolated showers are helping to lower the cloud bases. Expect a downward trend this afternoon, especially in southeast WI where shower coverage should be greater.
Isolated lightning is still possible this afternoon and early evening.

The lower Cigs may continue into tnt or redevelop late tnt along with areas of BR and fog.

Cronce

MARINE
Issued 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A cold front is slowly moving across the waters this evening into Wednesday morning, bringing a brief north-northwest wind shift.
Periods of showers and storms will accompany the slow-moving front, with severe weather appearing unlikely at this time. Winds will trend variable Wednesday evening through Thursday, when 30.1 inch high pressure is forecast to build into the western Great Lakes.

A prolonged period of south-southwest winds will become established across Lake Michigan Thursday night through Sunday as 30.1 inch high pressure lingers off the Mid-Atlantic coast and 29.6 inch low pressure stalls over the Hudson Bay. A slow-moving surface front will linger across the western Great Lakes Saturday into the beginning of next week, bringing multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be stronger, with additional details clarifying through the end of this week.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.