Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday February 20, 2020 9:15 AM CST (15:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:18AMMoonset 3:29PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ543 Expires:202002201730;;816808 Fzus53 Kgrb 200922 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 322 Am Cst Thu Feb 20 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-201730- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 322 Am Cst Thu Feb 20 2020
Today..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Sunny.
Tonight..W wind increasing to 15 to 20 kts with a few gusts near 25 kts. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft. Clear.
Friday..SW wind increasing to 20 to 25 kts, with a few gusts to near 35 kts north of sturgeon bay in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Sunny. A small craft advisory will be needed Friday and Friday night.
Friday night..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts, decreasing to 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft overnight. Mostly clear.
LMZ543


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, WI
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location: 43.85, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 201459 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 859 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

UPDATE.

The forecast remains on track for the rest of the day, with chilly temps and mostly sunny skies expected.

MARINE.

Modest northwest to west winds will continue over Lake Michigan today, as strong high pressure pushes southeast across Iowa. This high will continue towards the southeast United States into the weekend. Brisk southwest winds will develop Friday into Friday night. There is a high likelihood of gales Friday afternoon and evening, particularly across the northern half of the lake. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely during this period across the nearshore waters. The southwest winds will then gradually lessen from late Friday night through the weekend.

Freezing spray is likely in the south today and across the lake tonight into Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 523 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020)

UPDATE . No changes to current forecast.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period with clears skies and light winds from the west/northwest. Into Friday morning winds will turn to the southwest and become a bit breezy into the afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 235 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020)

SHORT TERM .

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Forecast Confidence . High.

With very strong high pressure centered just to the west and clear skies across southern Wisconsin temperatures will be fairly chilly, especially early this morning. Temperatures this morning will be in the negative single digits across much of the area with wind chills in the negative teens. Temperatures will not warm up too much during the day today either despite clear skies.

Tonight temperatures will not likely fall as much with temperatures reaching the low to mid single digits as the strong high pressure weakens somewhat as it pushes to the south. This will increase the pressure gradient across the region with winds strengthening from the southwest into the day Friday. This will also rapidly increase temperatures to the 30s Friday.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence . High.

Southwest breezes will diminish Friday night due to upstream weak troffing across the northern Plains weakening the pressure gradient across the western Great Lakes. Milder air however will remain in place with 925H temps in the 0 to 3C range. With sunshine and dry southwest winds, daytime temps should rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s across southern WI on Saturday. Melting of snow will be in full force during the day, especially in southeast CWA, where snowfield is around or less than 3" across most of the area.

LONG TERM .

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence . Low to Medium.

Zonal steering flow at the onset of this period will ensure milder air remains in place through the later half of the weekend. Daytime temps should easily rise into the 40s. However need to be careful of potential fog development Sunday morning due to melting snow adding moisture to low levels and diminishing low level winds. Any fog that develops should be shallow and burn off, so wl continue optimistic temp forecast for Sunday. Mid-high level clouds may spread across the area as southern Plains low pressure takes a turn to the northeast.

Cutoff low pressure in the southwest early in the period will get nudged eastward into the central/southern Plains by Sunday night. Extended guidance in reasonable agreement on this scenario, with upstream short-wave beginning to carve out trof in northern stream. However same Extended guidance having issues resolving timing and track of Plains low pressure as it moves to the northeast early next week. Both 00Z GFS and ECMWF slow down northeastward progress of low, but some GEFS ensembles continue to bring QPF into southern WI Sunday night. Considerable dry air in place across the Great Lakes ahead of this system, which will also slow down northward progress of precipitation. Never the less, with upstream amplifying trof, would think this system would take a more northeast track and return precipitation to southern WI in the Monday/Monday night time frame. For now, worthwhile to continue chance pops for much of the period, even into Wednesday, due to potential lingering low pressure trof in the area. Confidence higher on colder temperatures returning in the wake of this system due to long-wave trof amplification across the central CONUS.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATE) .

VFR conditions through the TAF period with clear skies and mostly light winds. Winds will pick up from the southwest into Friday, however.

MARINE .

Conditions remain quiet over the lake today and tonight with strong high pressure dominating the region. Into Friday, however, the high will push to the south bringing a stronger pressure gradient across the lake. This will likely bring gale force gusts across the northern half of the lake by Friday afternoon and extending southward across a majority of the lake by Friday evening. Thus a Gale Watch remains in effect for the northern half but has been extended to the southern half of the lake as well from 18z Friday to 6z Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will also likely be needed for a period as well.

Overnight Friday, winds will decrease to below gales but will remain modest and predominantly from the southwest through Sunday prior to another system pushing east to the south of the lake. Winds are not expected to be a concern through at least early next week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779- 868-870-872-874-876-878.



Update . DDV Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . ARK Friday through Wednesday . mbK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 8 mi15 min WNW 12 G 13 6°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 35 mi35 min WNW 8.9 G 13 6°F 1041 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 43 mi45 min 3°F 1038.2 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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NW9
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W15
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G26
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W5
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SE14
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G13
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NW11
G17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI13 mi22 minWNW 810.00 miFair3°F-8°F60%1041.3 hPa
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI20 mi19 minWNW 610.00 miFair9°F-4°F55%1041.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBM

Wind History from SBM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W11W12NW9W8W11W10W7W6NW6NW7NW6NW7W7NW8W7NW9NW6W7NW8NW8NW9NW8NW8
1 day agoW18
G27
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G30
W15
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W17
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W11
G21
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G24
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W12W11W14NW12
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G32
NW9NW9NW8NW7NW7W5NW5W5W6W6W6W7
2 days agoSE10
G17
SE9
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S10
G19
SE8
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G17
SE9SE11
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--SE12
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SE8SE5S6SW7W14W15
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G29
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G27

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.