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LOZ063 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent...
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include... Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat...lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 082007 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 307 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
The mild weather this afternoon will continue into Saturday, where by Saturday afternoon temperatures will warm up well into the 50s. A low pressure system will cross the central Great Lakes and southern Canada, where a cold front will push across the region late Sunday.
Overall, this will bring a soaking rainfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday and with the passage of the front and cold air filtering in across the area late Sunday rain will change over to snow from west to east Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Visible satellite imagery depicts a few patches of upper level clouds across the region this afternoon with dry weather prevailing as a mid-level ridge builds east across the southern Great Lakes and consequently surface high pressure builds across the western portions of New England. Additionally, surface weather stations are reporting southerly flow supporting temperatures to climb. Current temperatures (ranging in the 40s) will continue to warm as highs today will range from the low 40s across the eastern Lake Ontario region to the low 50s along the Lake Erie shoreline.

The surface high will slide to the east and center across the Eastern Seaboard tonight, while the mid-level ridge axis will be overhead of the area. Additionally, a shortwave passage will pass by to the northwest of the area. Despite its passage, just some increased cloud cover is expected with dry conditions prevailing.
Also, southerly winds will persist tonight and prevent radiational cooling and therefore resulting in a mild night with lows ranging in the mid to upper 30s east of Lake Ontario and the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

Meanwhile to the west, the next deep mid-level trough spanning as far south as the Gulf of Mexico will bring the next round of active weather for later this weekend. This all being said, outside of increasing cloud cover Saturday dry weather will prevail throughout most of the day Saturday. Additionally, mild weather will continue and be warmer than today. Highs will warm up into the mid to upper 40s east of Lake Ontario with low to mid 50s across the western portions of the area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A very active Saturday night into Monday period is still expected.
The approach of an amplifying upper trough and slow moving cold front will result in a widespread soaking rainfall Saturday night and Sunday as both Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico moisture are advected northward. Colder air spreading in behind the cold front late Sunday into Monday morning will bring a transition to some accumulating wet snow. Most areas will only see minor amounts, with the potential for higher amounts across higher terrain.

Model trends continuing to suggest an arrival time of the rain into western New York Saturday evening, reaching north central New York by late evening or near midnight. Deep southerly flow ahead of the system will keep overnight temperatures mild, with most areas only dropping into the mid to upper 40s. This will be close to 20 degrees above normal minimum temperatures.

Cold front eases across the area Sunday and Sunday night as several waves of low pressure ride along it. With the front still to our west Sunday morning, temperatures will start out mild. The period of heaviest rain should be during the first half or so of Sunday as strong frontogenetic forcing will occur along and just ahead of the front. Would not completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder with some elevated instability present. Strong 50+ knot low level jet overhead could bring the potential for a localized higher wind gust if any convective elements do develop. Most areas will see rainfall amounts of three-quarters to an inch, but areas on the Tug Hill may see up to 1.25 inches or more of rainfall boosted by upslope flow.
Latest MMEFS of the GEFS and NAEFS continues to highlight only the Black River in the North Country as possibly rising to action stage, and this would not be until later in the week as this river is a slow riser.

Colder air will start to make its way into the region as the cold front eases into central and eastern New York late Sunday and Sunday night. Thermal profiles suggest a fairly sharp transition over to wet snow from west to east (first occurring for higher terrain). Most areas will see at least some wet snow accumulation by Monday morning. Lower elevations likely less than 2 inches with higher terrain having a better potential to see higher amounts. Temperatures by Monday morning should be down to near freezing or even below for most of the area. This will bring the potential for slick conditions for the Monday morning commute as residual moisture could freeze up on untreated roads along with the minor wet snow accumulation.

The wet snow on the backside of the system will exit fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind within a tight surface pressure gradient. Even though winds will gust potentially to 35 mph, the wet snow will have little blowing and drifting.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the long term period the weather overall looks quieter than normal compared to mid December standards. POPs were limited to chance, as most of the period is uncertain among all guidance with minimal agreement on timing and intensity of any precip potential.
Current potential for passing cold front late Tuesday with some showers, both rain and snow. Behind the passing front there will be at least a chance for lake effect snow showers, especially southeast of Lake Ontario for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Guidance is hinting at a shortwave trough passing just north of the area Thursday morning, mainly increasing precip potential for the North Country, but also possibly extending the lake response southeast of Lake Ontario. Still too much uncertainty with this as well though, so keeping at chance POPs for now.

Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal. A quick passing ridge for Friday will bring warm air advection with temperatures aloft warming to around 5- 7C, which will increase the potential for well above normal temperatures for the day.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low clouds from this morning continue to scatter out across the North Country this afternoon. Otherwise, outside of a few upper level clouds across the northern Finger Lakes the area is seeing some breaks of sun.

Clouds will return late this afternoon and evening ahead of the next mid-level shortwave trough, though CIGS are expected to remain VFR, with the one exception being across the higher terrain (i.e. KJHW)
where MVFR conditions will be brief overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
South/southeasterly flow will freshen some this afternoon, through remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through much of Saturday.

A low pressure system passing across the central Great Lakes into southern Canada will support the next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night through Monday as cold air advects into the lower Great Lakes in its wake. Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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