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LOZ063 Expires:202309182000;;591889 Fzus71 Kbuf 181857 Mwsbuf
marine weather statement national weather service buffalo ny 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
loz044-045-063>065-182000- 257 pm edt Mon sep 18 2023
a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Lake ontario from hamlin beach to cape vincent...
showers along with isolated Thunderstorms will increase over the central and eastern portion of lake ontario through the rest of this afternoon and into early this evening. These showers will be capable of producing waterspouts.
locations impacted include... Pillar point, oswego, mexico bay, southwick beach, henderson harbor, westcott beach, chaumont bay, selkirk beach, stony point, sodus bay, fair haven, sandy island beach, tibbets point, black river bay, sackets harbor, north pond, and cape vincent.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
conditions are favorable for waterspouts with any shower or Thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Waterspouts can occur with little or no advance warning. SEek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.
&&
lat...lon 4395 7601 4382 7618 4365 7610 4351 7619 4349 7640 4338 7660 4328 7668 4323 7703 4328 7725 4327 7697 4336 7697 4334 7749 4345 7796 4363 7795 4363 7680 4410 7642 4415 7625 4411 7625 4411 7619 4402 7601

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 061628 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1128 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light snow and flurries gradually end from north to south this afternoon as high pressure briefly brings dry weather to the region.
A warm front will then slowly push through New York state late tonight and Thursday...producing some nuisance light snow in the process. Notably milder air in its wake will overspread the region to end the week with temperatures climbing into the 50s by Saturday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Light snow and flurries are only slowly diminishing from north to south as low-level moisture and sufficiently cold air flow across the Great Lakes. Visibility has been reduced to less than 1 mile at times with the snow, but additional accumulations have been minimal at well under an inch since daybreak. Despite temps below freezing seems that main roads are just staying wet. Eventually, dry air tied to a narrow ridge of high pressure arriving from the west will contract the snow later today into this evening to mainly higher terrain of Finger Lakes. Though low clouds will attempt to break up later today most spots, think they will have a hard time with limited dry air advection and since low-level winds stay NW.
Also by the time much low-level clearing occurs into this evening, mid clouds will be on the approach from the west ahead of a clipper shortwave that will be diving across the Lake Superior region.

The wedge of high pressure that crosses our forecast area tonight will be quickly followed by a tightening baroclinic zone and resultant warm front. This will prompt the start of a warm advection pattern that will... 1) Kill off any lingering upslope/lake supported snow showers 2) Encourage light SYNOPTIC based snow to break out over the WESTERN counties.

Fairly strong H925-700 frontogenetic forcing will be the source of light for the light snowfall tonight that will generally leave an inch or less of accumulation. Slightly higher amounts will be possible over the higher terrain...particularly south of Buffalo in southern Erie county and in Wyoming county
Meanwhile
pcpn free weather is anticipated for the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

The warm front will push across the remainder our forecast area on Thursday. The associated frontogenetic forcing will be focused on the areas generally east of the Genesee valley. Most areas should be able to get at least a coating of wet snow before the snow tapers off and ends from west to east as a little light rain. An inch or so of inconsequential snow is expected for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
An upper level ridge axis will build across the eastern Great Lakes region this period. The last of the isentropic lift light snow will end east of Lake Ontario through the evening hours. Clouds will linger through much of the night with overnight lows near the freezing mark across WNY, while temperatures east of Lake Ontario drop into the upper 20s.

Fair weather for Friday and Friday night with a light southerly flow. This flow will promote highs Friday well into the 40s with overnight lows remaining in the mid 30s to around 40F.

This ridge axis will likely make for one more dry day Saturday, one that will be quite mild for December standards with afternoon temperatures into the mid to upper 50s for the downslope lake plain, and low to mid 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A deepening trough will be advancing through the nations mid section to start this period with a shortwave rounding the base of the trough this weekend. However compared to yesterday this phasing looks to be a bit later, and at the surface the parent low will remain well to our north near James Bay, while a wavy cold front slowly passes across our region Sunday.

Meanwhile this weekend anticyclonic flow off the Southeast coastline will be pushing Atlantic moisture inland across the Southeast. As the deepening trough aloft pushes towards the mid-Mississippi Valley it will also tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture, that combined with Atlantic moisture will make for deep moisture over our region Sunday and Sunday night.

Models still have uncertainty with the evolution of this pattern for the weekend, and surface winds will still be gusty, though now forecasted to possibly remain even below advisory levels with the deepening surface low now well to our north and west, and stronger LLJ within the warm sector of the mid latitude cyclone.

To start the weekend rain will expand across the Ohio Valley on the nose of a 50 knot LLJ, with this rain then spreading across WNY Saturday night within diffluent flow aloft. The forecasted 00Z GFS PWAT for Sunday morning at Buffalo is just over an inch, with the 1.10" value very close to the daily record value (Buffalo 00Z/12Z soundings) and also within the top 20 of any sounding at Buffalo in the first half of December since 1948. GEFS ensemble members forecast +3 SD PWAT anomalies for Sunday, supporting the likelihood of much deeper moisture over the region.

High PWATs do not always translate to heavy rain, but with the deep, negatively tilted trough to our west, lift ahead of a wavy cold front passage Sunday afternoon and convergence along the nose of a strengthening 50 knot LLJ, a period of rain, that could be heavy at times, seems likely for Sunday and into Sunday night. Low level instability, with MUCAPE values of 100 to 250 J/KG could result in a narrow cold frontal rainband with downpours, gusty winds and an isolated rumble of thunder. Highest QPF may end up along the southern Tug Hill, where the strengthening LLJ and upslope flow could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain before transitioning to snow with this event. Lesser rain amounts back to WNY, and within the downslope regions of the Saint Lawrence Valley...though even here amounts over an inch of rain are possible.

Mild temperatures that could reach towards 60F Sunday ahead of the cold front will fall back to around the freezing mark Sunday night behind the cold front.

Cold air advection Sunday night will transition the rain to snow, though by this time the axis of deeper moisture and lift aloft will be well to the east. Still several inches of snow will be possible Sunday night and early Monday, possibly more if the cold air filters in faster. Cold air advection Monday and Monday night may try to start a lake effect response. Any lake response will be minor as wind shear and loss of deeper synoptic moisture will hinder lake band development.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR conditions (vsby and/or cigs) that have impacted the terminals this morning except JHW and ART will continue to improve to a mix of MVFR and lower VFR (generally cigs) for all terminals as we work through the afternoon.

Tonight...conditions over the western counties will deteriorate with time as fairly widespread light snow will arrive from the west.
Vsbys of 2-4SM will be common after midnight. Sites east of Lake Ontario (KART/KGTB) should be largely VFR as the snow will not get in there until after daybreak Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Light snow likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow showers late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with snow showers.

MARINE
Moderate northwesterlies will become northwesterly during the course of today...as a wedge of high pressure will approach the region.
While this will translate into negligible wave action for most of the nearshore waters...somewhat choppy conditions will be possible at times on Lake Ontario between Hamlin Beach and Mexico Bay.

As the area of high pressure moves through tonight...winds will back to the southwest. These winds will freshen somewhat on Lake Erie after 06z...leading to some choppy conditions.

In the wake of a warm front...winds will further strengthen across the region on Thursday. This will likely lead to small craft advisory conditions on Lake Erie...while somewhat weaker winds and an offshore flow should allow for sub-advisory conditions on Lake Ontario. Mariners should likely expect small craft advisories to be issued on Lake Erie in a later package.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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