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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 339 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 291143 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 643 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating and blowing snow across parts of northwest lower and eastern U.P. this morning.

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing/vorticity max evident on satellite imagery continues to punch over the northern Great Lakes this morning as a surface cyclone works across Ontario. Northwest flow will persist overhead trough the duration of the period as a second shortwave further upstream digs across central Canada and over the northern Great Plains late tonight, providing favorable support for cyclogenesis along an existing boundary well to our west.

Forecast Details:

The primary concern will be ongoing snowfall across parts of northwest lower and the eastern U.P. through this morning.
Aforementioned vorticity max moving overhead will support snowfall aloft as southwest low-level flow will generate a lake enhanced snowfall component across portions of the area -- primarily in the vicinity of Little Traverse Bay and southern portions of Mackinac county. Snowfall totals of 2-3" are anticipated across these areas through this morning with locally higher totals near 4" north of Little Traverse Bay near Pellston where the best lake enhancement is anticipated. While forecast soundings display several thousand feet of the saturated thermo profile collocated within the DGZ, slightly less efficient snowfall is expected this morning than would otherwise be anticipated due to 30-40+ kt flow just off the surface helping to lead to snowflake fragmentation. This, combined with wind gusts of 20-30 mph at times this morning, may lead to localized quick drops in visibility and travel impacts with any steadier snowfall and patchy blowing snow across open areas. Snow chances will gradually diminish into this afternoon as favorable forcing and moisture becomes increasingly displaced from the region. Highs in the low to mid 30s are in store today with temperatures looking to dip back into the 20s overnight tonight.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal for now.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

NW flow continues to hang over the Upper Midwest...with longwave troughing slowly slipping eastward...as upstream ridging broadens across the western US. Niblet of energy trekking down the flow toward Michigan as of 4z/29...with attendant 1000mb surface reflection over eastern Manitoba and a warm front stretching almost due south into the central US/MS Valley. Warm advection into the Upper Great Lakes on southwesterly flow in the low-levels...with some indications of seeder-feeder processes off Little Traverse Bay as of 4z with this next system
Otherwise
surface high to our south continues to trek southeastward through the OH Valley, bounded by BCZ across the Gulf Coast states. Broad high pressure over the western US dirtied by surface troughs...as bits of energy from an upper low off the coast get thrown into the ridge.

Clipper system zips through the region today...as northern stream energy digs into the western US going into Thursday. This should drive a surface low and attendant SW-NE oriented cold front through the region Thursday into Thursday night, with little in the way of impacts save for a bit of a blustery day and perhaps some nuisance flurries/drizzle. This front should stall out somewhere to our south going into Friday. This sets the stage for a couple niblets of southern stream energy to ride northeastward into the OH Valley to wrap up the week, driving a surface low likely across the southern OH Valley through Friday night. Think that the bulk of the impacts from this will largely be to our south, though it, and attendant 120+kt upper level jet traversing the flow, will be close enough that the SE CWA toward Saginaw Bay could see some influences from this system as it starts to buckle the boundary northward Friday night. Additionally, southwest flow and attendant warm advection support a milder regime for a change...and potential for more liquid precip mixing in, especially during the day.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Thursday cold front precip, Friday system impacts?

My worst-case-scenario brain can't help but notice the potential for a sharp band of mid-level forcing as the boundary deforms with time Thursday, along with minor potential for weaker stability along the front; were we to get deeper moisture along the boundary than we're currently expecting, the forecast could change fairly dramatically.
For now, though, the more logical scenario (and the one I'm going with) is a moisture-starved front dropping through the region, with little impacts save for some nuisance flurries/drizzle along the front as it sags SE-ward through the day, and perhaps some minor LES, especially across the EUP later Thursday afternoon/night as temps cool enough to support overlake instability again.

For now...expecting the northern edge of the precip shield to just barely scrape Gladwin/Arenac counties Friday, at least, during the day...though if the front stalls out a little further north, the precip shield would move northward accordingly
Even so
do expect WAA precip to spread in from the south overnight Friday night. For now...signals point toward this staying mainly snow for us, as the warm nose should remain to our south
However
if the front does end up stalling out further north, or the warm front buckles further north, p-types could become more of a concern (again, this is a low- probability scenario for us attm...with more of a concern for p- types Friday/night across southern Lower). Dry surface high that should be slipping over us Thursday night/Friday could lead to a sharp cutoff in precip...and may have to keep an eye on low temps for the EUP if it ends up clear enough with drainage flow over the current snowpack.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal... for now.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Southwesterly flow remains in play over the region for the weekend...with that aforementioned confluence zone over us supporting a shot at high pressure for a change Saturday. Think this will be short-lived...as upstream energy crosses the central US Saturday. Uncertainty in the exact position of niblets rotating through the trough axis lends some uncertainty in exact position of the attendant surface reflection, but do think generalized surface low pressure over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes is on tap for Sunday
As mentioned above
southwesterly flow and milder temperatures should support a bit wetter/more liquid form of precip this weekend...though this is not a certainty, particularly if troughing moves in a little quicker.

Even more energy digging into the back of the trough over the Plains for Sunday night and Monday should keep the active idea going in a broad sense for our region to start next week; reinforcement of the trough suggests that cold air could return again next week. This idea could also reinforce active weather downwind of the Great Lakes in particular, so will keep an eye on this as well.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 643 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Mainly MVFR CIGs are anticipated across northern Michigan TAF sites into this afternoon as snow showers continue across parts of the area. Temporary drops to IFR CIGs cannot be ruled out this morning.
VSBY reductions are possible for the next few hours at PLN with ongoing snowfall, and then VFR VSBYs are anticipated across all sites through the issuance period. Southwest winds around 10 kts will gust to 20-25 kts at times this morning into this afternoon before weakening some tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 309 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Small craft winds and waves continue over the northern Great Lakes nearshore waters this morning. While gusts look to weaken below advisory thresholds over some nearshore waters later today, small craft waves are expected to continue. Advisory conditions may continue over most nearshore waters through Thursday.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ345>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LSZ321-322.

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