Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beaverton, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Periods of showers will continue to pivot northeast across the area tonight...with the most organized and widespread showers arriving after midnight when forced convergence along nose of low level jet spreads overhead. Just enough decaying elevated instability to support the threat for a few embedded thunderstorms...but nothing severe expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Pattern Forecast: Short wave ridge axis moving east of the upper Great Lakes this afternoon while cyclogenesis takes place across the southern Plains ahead of a compact upper low tracking northeast out of the Texas panhandle. Surface low forecast to lift across eastern Iowa and into Wisconsin tonight...and eventually crossing Upper Michigan by Monday afternoon. Occluded front/triple point expected to cross Lower Michigan Monday...narrow bit of the warm sector may lift across the southeast half of the forecast area during late morning/early afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain overspreads northern Michigan starting this evening: Rain evolution the primary forecast concern for tonight and Monday...with an initial push of rainfall north of the approaching occluded front tonight into Monday morning...after which it appears we will get dry slotted. It looks like it will take some time to completely overcome dry low levels... so initial push of precipitation now lifting northeast across southern Wisconsin/southern Lake Michigan may not amount to much. But precipitation intensity expected to increase overnight as better low level inflow/jet begins to focus on Lower Michigan (precipitable water > 1 inch) and we also see some remnants of upstream convection propagating in our direction overnight. Stability profile weakens as well with arrival of low level theta-e ridge...so some heavier showers/convection also possible overnight and Monday morning especially along edge of the dry slot which spreading northeast. This should diminish precipitation coverage to more drizzle especially north of the occluded front...and eventually more showery as short wave trough moves across the forecast areas during the afternoon and deeper moisture wraps back around into northern Michigan from the west.
Total precipitation for tonight and Monday expected to be heaviest across eastern Upper with amounts from 0.75-1.25 inch.
Across northern Lower with dry slotting playing more of a factor rainfall amounts from 0.25-0.75 inch expected.

Gusty winds tonight and Monday: The track of the surface low across Wisconsin and eventually the eastern half of Upper Michigan Monday afternoon/evening is expected to result in winds initially increasing from the east/southeast tonight...then veering southwest across Lower Michigan Monday with the passage of the cold/ occluded front. This will also result in the most persistent wind gusts across northern Lower...as winds across eastern Upper should diminish Monday afternoon with the low crossing that area
Strongest wind gusts overnight expected after midnight
20-30+mph with gusts to 35mph through the Straits region.
Strongest winds across eastern Upper Monday should be during the first half of the day with gusts 30-35+mph continuing from the east/southeast with winds diminishing as the pressure gradient relaxes during the afternoon
Across northern Lower
winds should be gusty through the day while shifting from southeast to southwest. Post-frontal gusts will be aided by cold advection/ isentropic downslope helping mix momentum toward the surface...
and any isallobaric component should be somewhat lined up to help things along. Continued wind gusts of 25- 35mph expected and perhaps some 40+mph gusts along the Lake Michigan shoreline.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 340 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Lingering showers through early Monday night as low pressure departs to our northeast, otherwise decreasing clouds from southwest to northeast after midnight. It will turn colder with brisk northwest winds. Any lingering clouds Tuesday morning will give way to increasing sunshine but it will be cooler with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Warmer air then begins to return Tuesday night into Wednesday as a zonal flow aloft becomes established. Can't rule out a few warm advection driven showers, but not expected much rain across the region. Noticeably warmer with highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south Wednesday then the upper 50s to low 70s Thursday. A possible weak area of low pressure will bring chances for showers Thursday on into Friday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday. Extended guidance then varies on the details for next weekend but a majority of ensemble members show rain free conditions along with cooler temperatures Saturday followed by slowly warming temperatures Sunday (it's still a ways out there so I would only put the no rain in pencil for now).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Ceilings will continue to thicken and lower through this evening with light rain spreading across all areas. Low levels are dry so will take some time to saturate so flight conditions likely to remain VFR with initial precipitation onset. Eventually expect MVFR conditions to develop with heavier precipitation...and then IFR ceilings with approach of an occluded front Monday morning. Low cigs and mist/drizzle will continue through Monday. Winds will be gusty from the east- southeast through Monday morning, abruptly turning to the southwest during the afternoon after frontal passage.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345-346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ347>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.