Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beaverton, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 347 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

NWly 120+kt upper jet crashing through broad ridge axis over the western continent...stretching from British Columbia to the Central Plains and dragging Pacific moisture and some shortwave troughing into the Canadian Rockies and MT/Northern Plains. Jet is feeding cooler air aloft into the base of a longwave trough axis over the eastern US/Midwest, which has a negatively tilted shortwave axis from Lake Superior to the Lower Great Lakes as of 4z, slowly sweeping a bit of moisture out of the region. 535dm upper low still hanging on over NE Manitoba...with another lobe of energy poised across central Canada attm; 0C isotherm hanging out over northern Manitoba underneath this and behind a cold front across the Canadian Prairies. Strengthening southerly low-level flow through the Plains helping to moisten and destabilize conditions across the northern Plains, with advection from EML-related air over the central US (700mb 12C isotherm here, as well as 850mb temps at or above 24C)...into NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone (surface boundary) from the Dakotas down into the Mid MS Valley. (This feature loops back up to an occluded low over Lake MI/Manistee as of 0z...hence our mildly spicy convection last evening.) Shortwave ridging over WI attm helping to calm things down...but already seeing high clouds from the next system advecting into WI as of 4z.

Troughing digs into the Upper Midwest today, with increasing difluence and jet coupling aiding in cyclogenesis over the Upper Midwest today...driving a sub-1000mb,four-standard-deviations-below- the-climo-mean surface low across the Midwest...tracking across central/southern Michigan as it occludes...deepening further as it exits stage right into Canada Thursday. This will leave us under brisk northwesterly flow as a couple niblets of energy pass through the flow through Friday. Think the more autumnal vibes will attempt to prevail into the weekend as what remains of the upper low slowly sinks toward the Great Lakes this weekend...most likely passing out of the region by the start of next week. High pressure may try to build in for the start of next week, though it appears we will not be done with the perturbations...as flow across the central continent turns more zonal overall, despite some energy hanging out across southern/central Canada somewhere
Bottom line
expect things to largely remain on the cooler side, and perhaps active as well, going into the start of astronomical summer.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain/storms today...Still a fair bit of uncertainty in the track of the surface low, which I suspect will depend to some degree on convective feedback today/tonight...though attm things seem to indicate an occluding surface low with a triple point lifting into the US-10/M-55 ish vicinity this evening into tonight, with a general E-W oriented occluded front stretching back toward WI. The further north this gets, the better shot we have at seeing a)
stronger sustained E/SE winds across NE Lower MI this evening, and b) better shot at severe weather (see below). Signals point toward this punch of PV, too, being neutral or negatively tilted as it crosses Michigan. While the bulk of the activity is expected to our south where it should be warmer and better shear should be located...similar to today, I can't help but suspect it is not to be trusted.

Mid-level warming ahead of the PV max today should put a hard cap on the area, even if there is enough diurnal heating ahead of the expected stratiform rain to generate any surface-based cape (most likely shot would be NE Lower where clouds/rain should be slower to move in...and this is where some kind of lake breeze boundary looks to develop today). (Not sure that yesterday's rainfall will lend enough moisture to the low-levels to lower LCLs and destabilize things a bit easier or not.) Slightly cooler air aloft should move in with the PV max toward and after 0z, which could allow a better shot at generating several hundred joules of elevated instability if a low-level warm nose (700-850mb-ish) can get far enough north....and this would suggest a hail threat if it verifies...though it may well remain to our south. (Some signals for slight drying aloft could enhance convective instability as well during this timeframe.) Not sure that we will be able to get much in the way of surface based cape with this system unless we get deep enough into the warm sector, most likely near Saginaw Bay...and with that low-level warm nose, would expect a very stout inversion that could limit damaging winds
However
given that this should be a very dynamic system with a strong jet aloft/jet coupling in the vicinity, think we will have to worry about gravity waves getting involved, which if it were to happen, would indicate a damaging wind threat despite our anticipated strong inversion. Certainly have potential for shear aloft, with potential for the nose of a 60+kt 500mb jet to sneak in ahead of the PV max after dark...and anything that does get going, especially this evening, could certainly get organized.

Think the primary concern, though, is a better chance for widespread synoptic rain with embedded thunder with this setup...as most of northern Michigan should be north of the warm front where synoptic isentropic ascent should come into play, with pwats above an inch and signals for saturation through the column from the southwest as early as 15-18z (though again...better absolute moisture should remain to our south). Frontogenetic factors could come into play with this system...which could lead to a sharp gradient in rainfall between the "haves" and "have-nots" through Thursday morning. Weaker stability sneaking in, especially during the evening hours, has potential to enhance rainfall totals as well. Think the moisture and forcing could hang around through much of the night, with a second trough axis swinging/sliding through toward morning. Certainly possible there may be two distinct areas of precipitation...more of a classic, synoptic comma-head type area of stratiform rain to the north across the EUP/Tip of the Mitt/Lake Superior, and another with the convective action closer to central Michigan and Saginaw Bay/NE Lower; QPF guidance attm seems to be leaning toward this idea...and if it were to verify, some part of the area could end up with less rain than is currently forecast.

Wraparound moisture should hang on into Thursday morning, and think it will take some time to scour it out...leaving us with some fall- like shower activity during the day, IF we are able to warm/mix off the surface at all. If we remain much more stable/rainy, we could end up quite fall-like through much of the day Thursday with temperatures again struggling into the 60s like Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1159 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Cigs will tend to lower tonight, and mbL at least is already dealing with some fog. CIU/MBL most likely to see IFR overnight into Wed morning. Other sites could be MVFR at times. COnditions improve for part of Wednesday, but showers return late in the day/evening, with worsening cigs/vsbys again. Winds will be light overnight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.