Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Topsham, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 10:01 PM EDT (02:01 UTC) Moonrise 1:17AMMoonset 3:42PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 639 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Rest of tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds up to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..S winds up to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 639 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure continues to build southward across the local waters tonight and Thursday resulting in relatively tranquil conditions. A warm front crosses the waters Friday with showers and possibly storms, then weak high pressure returns for the weekend. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 152256 AAA AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 656 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build southward across northern New England tonight and hold just offshore through Thursday providing for fair weather. A warm front will approach Thursday night into Friday and may aid in the development of showers and a few thunderstorms, possibly strong. Hot weather looks to return over the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. 7 PM Update . Skies are clearing this evening, with northern NH and western ME free of clouds. Central and southern NH will see cumulus and stratocumulus diminish tonight with the loss of heating. This along with cool temperatures and dew points in the 40s and 50s will support a relatively fast cool down tonight. Overnight lows look good for this update and will bottom out in the upper 40s to upper 50s NE to SW. Made a few changes to hourly temperature and dew point trends, otherwise forecast is on track.

Previous discussion . High pressure continues to build southward into Maine and New Hampshire late this Wednesday afternoon and is allowing for a northeast to southwest clearing trend of the stratocu field. This trend will continue this evening allowing for most locations to go clear or mostly clear except perhaps southernmost zones where the clouds may not completely clear. With drier and cooler air moving on in tonight we will see lower temperatures than what we have experienced during the warm and humid stretch. Radiational cooling is likely in many areas and that will likely contribute to areas of radiation fog which could become locally dense in valley locations and spots where a good deal of rain has fallen the last few days.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. High pressure continues to hold on at the surface on Thursday allowing for another fair weather day. Clouds may increase in the afternoon as upper air warm air advection get going. Temperatures will be in the 70s most locations with local onshore flow allowing for cooler temperature along the coast.

A warm front approaches Thursday night with continued increasing clouds. Low level moisture will begin working back into the region and this may allow for some low clouds to move onshore, especially on the Midcoast during the night. Most of the night will remain dry, but a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder should move into the CT River Valley region late.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The extended forecast features mainly zonal flow with daily sensible weather driven by numerous shortwave troughs and ridges crossing along the international border with Canada. Thus medium to low confidence exists in timing out these specific waves in the day to day forecast . but a few conclusions can still be gleaned from the pattern. The primary hazard to key in on is high heat and humidity building by early next week. Long range ensemble suites show strong confidence in anomalously high heights building through the weekend into the early part of next week; likewise low-level temperatures and humidity also rise into the +2-3 SD range for at least the first half of the coming week. A secondary hazard that will bear watching and day- to-day fine tuning will be convection, especially next week as the warm and moist airmass grows.

The only feature that's really worth going into much detail with at this point is a short wave trough crossing Friday. While dynamics are favorable for strong to severe storms, with 0-6 km bulk shear in the 35-45 kt range and strong low-level helicity . thermodynamics at this point are less favorable. First . surface temperatures will struggle to rise even in southerly flow after a period of cool onshore flow along the east coast Second. there's a fair amount of agreement amongst model suites that mid-level lapse rates will be quite poor. So for now, will forecast a chance of thunder over the mountains/slight chance over the coastal plain given the dynamics, but will curb the enthusiasm for now unless thermodynamics look a bit better. Best odds for storms right now exist over the Connecticut River Valley into the Whites. Regardless the shortwave does provide enough synoptic ascent to produce at least moderate rainfall rates which may pose problems over the Whites which has received quite a bit of rain recently.

Offshore flow behind the shortwave amid increasing heights and temperatures aloft allow the heat to build quickly Saturday with h850 temperatures in the 15-18C range corresponding to high temperatures in the upper 80s to low-90s assuming more sun than clouds. The warming trend continues into Sunday and Monday with highs perhaps a couple degrees warmer into the mid-90s plus dew points rising into the upper-60s and low-70s. Based on these modeled trends heat advisories may be needed with little relief expected until a front crosses around Monday. With a warm and humid airmass in place by then, will need to keep an eye on this wave for strong to severe thunderstorms. The wave helps to temporarily decrease humidity behind it, but most models indicate the heat will stick around at least into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term /Through Thursday night/ . VFR tonight with Lcl IFR in valley stratus and fog 08 to 12z early Thursday morning . otw VFR conditions continue through Thursday. Some IFR low clouds may work onto the coastal plain later Thursday night as low level moisture increases.

Long Term . Restrictions to MVFR or IFR, locally LIFR in heavy rain, are possible on Friday with a crossing wave of showers and possibly storms. VFR prevails through the weekend into early next week with increasing odds of overnight fog development.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Thursday Night/ . High pressure building over the waters tonight through Thursday will allow for relatively tranquil conditions on the waters. Southerly winds will increase later Thursday night as a warm front approaches.

Long Term . A period of SCAs for winds, perhaps seas, is likely Friday at least over the outer waters as a frontal system crosses. Areas of fog become more likely over the waters this weekend into early next week, then another frontal system crosses with another period of SCAs possible.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . Hanes SHORT TERM . Ekster LONG TERM . Casey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi92 min 65°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi72 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 64°F 65°F3 ft1024.5 hPa (+0.8)
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi118 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 64°F 63°F3 ft1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME14 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1025.4 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi66 minSSE 510.00 miFair63°F60°F90%1025.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWI

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm333333Calm4Calm63--35Calm3S46S7SW4CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm33CalmE65NW7
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4Calm--CalmCalm33CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--W3S4S5S35S43CalmS3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:49 AM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.20.10.50.60.60.50.50.1-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.50.80.80.70.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.