Topsham, ME Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Topsham, ME


December 8, 2023 1:47 PM EST (18:47 UTC)
Sunrise 6:59AM   Sunset 4:03PM   Moonrise  3:14AM   Moonset 2:24PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 1012 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.gale watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening...
This afternoon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
Mon..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

ANZ100 1012 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm generally quiet weather is expected through Sunday as high pressure settles over the waters. A developing storm center impacts the waters Sunday night into Monday, with gale to storm force southerly winds possible.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 081515 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1015 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure overhead today will bring slightly warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies
As this high pushes east for Saturday
southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures...with 50s likely south of the mountains by Sunday. A strong frontal system arrives Sunday night and Monday with locally heavy rain...and the potential for strong winds...especially along the coast.
Cooler and drier conditions arrive for the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

10:15am Update... Knocked down highs by a degree or two for today based on trends so far today and trends from the last couple of days. Overall no notable changes with this update as the forecast remains on track.

730 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Stratus continues over western NH and therefore increased cloud cover some across these areas to account for this. Otherwise, mainly clear skies prevail elsewhere with another cold morning underway.

Previously...
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this morning shows a lingering stratus deck over much of western and northern NH with some clearing now taking place over southern NH.
Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear, which has allowed temperatures to fall into the single digits and teens. It will continue to be a quiet but cold morning with temperatures potentially falling a few additional degrees where skies remain clear.

Surface high pressure will remain anchored over northern New England today as mid-level shortwave ridging arrives from the west. This will allow for mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures into the middle 30s to near 40 degrees south of the foothills. Further to the north, highs will primarily be into the 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
Heights will continue to rise tonight as WAA aloft pushes h850 temperatures up to around +8C by dawn on Saturday. A weak sfc warm front will approach from the southwest, which will result in gradually increasing mid-level clouds overnight from southwest to northeast. As a result, the coldest overnight lows will be found across eastern areas with comparably warmer readings further to the south and west. This places lows into the mid-20s across much of south-central NH to the teens from roughly KIZG to KLEW and points north and east.

Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures once again a few degrees warmer with readings into the upper 30s to mid- 40s from north to south. There is a low-end chance for some patchy drizzle to develop late in the day across the foothills as seen on the NAM as LL moisture increases but since the NAM often overdoes the areal coverage of spotty precipitation and this is a period 3 forecast, will hold off on including this for now.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Heavy rain and strong wind potential Sunday night and Monday
Beyond this
little in the way of significant weather impacts is expected.

--Pattern and Summary--

-NAO/-AO opens the period which has allowed for a chilly stretch over the past few days...but pattern changes are in the works as the downstream block near Greenland breaks down and allows Pacific energy /+EPO/ to carve out a longwave trough across eastern North America by the beginning of next week. This will bring a surge of warmer/moister air into the region before the trough swings in with colder air for the middle of the week. The longwave trough should generally remain overhead through the end of the long term forecast period with broad west northwest flow aloft and the potential for some moisture-starved shortwaves to ripple through the region.
Thus...the primary forecast challenge will center on the frontal system and associated low pressure that moves through the region Sunday night and Monday.

--Daily Details--

Saturday Night - Sunday: The period opens with deep southwest flow aloft as longwave trough deepens to our west. PWATs surge above 1" during the day Sunday with nearing frontal surface bringing increasing chances for rain as the day progresses. T8s push above 8C...but model sounding profiles suggest a pretty stout inversion layer near the surface which will slow increasing temperatures and keep winds light /esp away from the coast/ despite a strengthening LLJ
Thus
expect increasing clouds through the day with chances for rain increasing by late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening. Temperature forecast is challenging as temps aloft will support lower/mid 50s but llevel inversion will likely keep temperatures in the 30s north/40s south /see 2m temps on the NAM/ until the rain arrives...with temperatures continuing to rise into the Sunday night period.

Sunday Night - Monday: Upstream trough develops a negative tilt as it drives into the northeast United States Sunday night and Monday. This will cause cyclogenesis along the advancing cold front with low pressure somewhere over southern ME/NH daybreak Monday with this low strengthening as it pushes north and east through the day. 00Z GFS shows pretty impressive deepening of the low overhead on Monday /11mb in 6 hours/...which helps drive warmer air and better mixing/stronger winds further into the interior while the EC is weaker/later with low development and actually closer to the GEFS mean. The GGEM is weaker still...keeping the more fully mixed warm sector offshore. Have followed pretty close to the EC/EC-EPS which confines the strongest wind threat primary to the coast and into the Capitol region of Maine. Wind advisories will likely be needed in these areas
with some potential for warning level winds
esp for the midcoast. There has been enough of a shift in the guidance in the past 24-48 hours to warrant caution on any land-based headlines with this package but will continue to mention the wind /and rain/ potential in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook.

The warmest temperatures of the event come Sunday night as we reach the low-mid 50s across southern NH and along the coastal plain of Maine with temperatures beginning to fall by daybreak Monday...with rain likely mixing with and changing to snow in the mountains. Uncertainty remains with how quickly the cold air arrives and therefore how much snow is realized. By Monday evening...temperatures will be back in the 20s in the mountains and 30s to the south and east.

As for rainfall
see Hydrology section below for more details
but a significant amount of rain is looking likely...with ensemble signals for 2" rather robust and in line with PWATs pushing to around 1.4" as the frontal progression slows somewhat as low pressure take shape along it with impressive +DPVA and right entrance region jet forcing.

Finally...with warming dewpoints late Sunday and through Sunday night...expect that we/ll see some fog development as the cool ground surface maintains near surface saturation of the moist airmass.

Tuesday - Thursday: A more seasonable end to the forecast period is in store as a high pressure ridge axis builds in Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure remains anchored over the southeastern United States through Thursday with westerly flow aloft generally dominating across our region
For Tuesday and Wednesday
highs looks to still reach a bit above normal with highs around 30 in the mountains...and in the upper 30s to around 40 south. A weak and moisture-starved northern stream wave and associated cold front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday with perhaps some mountain snow showers. This will usher in somewhat cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs in the 20s north and 30s south.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...VFR conditions to dominate through at least early Sunday morning along with light and variable winds. The exception will be at KHIE and KLEB where MVFR CIGs will persist through around 12-14Z today. Ceilings will gradually begin lowering late Sunday ahead of our next storm system. No LLWS is expected at this time.

Long Term...Some stratus and fog is possible Saturday night...but the much greater potential for restrictions will come late Sunday through early Monday with IFR CIGS/VSBYS likely in fog and rain. There may also be a period of LLWS during the day Sunday before stronger winds reach down to the surface.
Sunday night into early Monday...strong south/southwest wind gusts 35-45kt are possible along the coast... with gusts 20-30kts inland. Improving conditions are expected late Monday through the remainder of the period though westerly winds will remain gusty.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds and seas to remain below thresholds hazardous to small crafts through Saturday night as high pressure settles over the waters. Southerly winds will begin increasing on Sunday ahead of our next storm system with conditions becoming hazardous to small crafts. Light freezing spray will remain possible across western Penobscot Bay through early this morning.

Long Term...Have hoisted gale watches for the period late Sunday through Monday night. Ensemble probabilities of 34kt are over 50% and while there remain some significant differences in the details...gales look likely. Storm force gusts are possible as well in the stronger end of the guidance envelope...but confidence not high enough at this range to go with storm watches. Thanks CAR/BOX for the collab.

HYDROLOGY
There is strong deterministic/ensemble agreement for a significant rainfall event for the Sunday afternoon-Monday morning timeframe. 2" rainfall probabilities have increased over the past 24 hours and are focused in the upslope region of the mountains
The bigger question mark
as noted yesterday...is the amount of SWE we can melt out of the mountains. Guidance has been lowering the max dewpoint temperatures in the terrain...
such that it is possible dewpoints never reach much above 40.
Also
temperatures begin fall on Monday
switching rain back to snow in the mountains
So
expect we/ll melt out the snow over the coastal plain and possibly into the foothills...with added snowmelt uncertain to the north of this. This will bring the potential for river flooding...particularly on the smaller/headwaters streams.

Rainfall rates Monday morning may allow for some poor drainage flooding as well...though a widespread flash flood threat is not anticipated.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for ANZ150>154.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi47 min W 5.1G6 38°F 42°F30.14
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi27 min 0G3.9 35°F 46°F2 ft30.1821°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi103 min NNW 9.7G12 32°F

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Wind History for No Ports station near this location
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KIWI WISCASSET,ME 14 sm54 mincalm10 smClear34°F19°F55%30.19
KLEW AUBURN/LEWISTON MUNI,ME 19 sm51 minW 0310 smClear34°F21°F60%30.16

Wind History from IWI
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Brunswick, Androscoggin River, Kennebec River, Maine, Tide feet



Tide / Current for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
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Fri -- 01:20 AM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:54 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:47 AM EST     0.80 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:58 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:24 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:54 PM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:11 PM EST     0.64 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current, knots
12
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-0.3
1
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-0.6
2
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-0.6
3
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-0.4
4
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-0.2
5
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0
6
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0.4
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0.7
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0.8
9
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0.7
10
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0.7
11
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0.5
12
pm
-0
1
pm
-0.5
2
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-0.6
3
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-0.5
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-0.4
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-0.2
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0.1
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0.5
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0.6
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11
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0.5




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   
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Portland, ME,



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