Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Topsham, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:16 AM EDT (09:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:15PMMoonset 11:21AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 333 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Today..Light and variable winds, becoming S around 5 kt late this morning, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a chance of tstms after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 333 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A southerly wind begins today as high pressure moves east and a trough approaches from the west. Low pressure tracks near the gulf of maine tonight into Friday with winds picking up again out of the northwest behind it. Northwest winds veer to the southwest, and then southeast, later this weekend as high pressure builds to the south.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsham, ME
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location: 43.92, -69.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 290803 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 403 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure approaches from the west today and crosses tonight, bringing widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms to the area into Friday morning. Scattered showers and gusty winds are expected behind the system through Friday evening. High pressure briefly builds Saturday into Sunday with seasonably cool and comfortable temperatures for the foreseeable future. The next showery system crosses Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. High pressure moves east today opening up a southerly flow across our area. After quite a cool morning in this dry air mass, we'll see moisture levels increasing in the low levels of the atmosphere with cloud cover increasing as well. Some cooling aloft associated with the approaching trough may combine with the low level moisture advection to produce some showers or even a thunderstorm by midday, but the better chances will be in the late afternoon. Temperatures will be quite cool by late July standards, peaking in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The general idea of a trough approaching from the west leading to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through the night tonight is well agreed upon by all the models. However, there's still a wide array of possibilities on where the heavier rainfall may occur as well as some differences on the timing of it as well. Thus for this forecast I tried not to get too precise with timing or location of high PoP or QPF, although I did try to show the best estimate on timing and locations of greater rain chances based on a synthesis of the model guidance. At this point it seems there may be an initial area of showers and thunderstorms affecting northern NH and northwest ME this evening while synoptic forcing then transitions to a focus on southern NH and through the coast of Maine during the overnight and into Friday morning as low pressure develops near the coast. All of this rain will be convective in nature and thus highly variable and occasionally heavy, especially where it persists. Total rainfall amounts are likely to range from about 0.5 to 1.5 inches with the possibility for amounts over 2 inches where convective enhancement persists. Temperatures remain fairly mild overnight tonight, in the low 60s to upper 50s.

On Friday the developing surface low moves east while the upper trough moves in overhead. Cool air within this trough will move in ahead of the drier air advecting in the low levels, and as a result we will likely see the resulting instability bubble up in the form of showers and a few thunderstorms on Friday even well after the low has departed to the east. However, as the day goes on, the dry advection will win out and shut off the showers and thunderstorms. The northwest flow behind the low will also promote better mixing in the low levels and support wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph. The warmest temperatures will be along the coast where mid to upper 70s will be seen, but north of the mountains it may stay in the 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Upper level troughing and a Canadian airmass remain entrenched over eastern NOAM through this weekend and into the next work week, although signs of this pattern breaking down are starting to appear later next week. In the meantime we'll continue to enjoy seasonably cool conditions with occasional bouts of rain shower activity, but overall an enjoyable stretch of weather for what is typically the warmest time of year for this region.

Starting Friday night . low pressure departing to the east will be rapidly deepening over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Thus northwest winds in cyclonic flow overhead will ramp up, continuing upsloping clouds/showers along with gusty winds in cold advection. Ensemble analysis yields wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range . however BUFKIT soundings suggests strongest wind gusts Friday evening will be closer to 30 mph, so have trended the forecast in that direction. Will have to keep an eye on locally stronger winds to near 40 mph in the downslopes of the Whites and western Maine Mountains with some modeled soundings suggesting an inversion forming just above the peaks . assuming we keep mixed.

Besides the wind . a thermal trough will descend through Quebec and into New England with h850 temperatures dipping to +3-7C by Saturday morning. Overnight lows remain a bit of a conundrum with uncertainty in humidity and mixing due to the PGF; I remain skeptical that we'll cool much more than the 50s over the lakes region and coastal plain, 40s toward the north and west, in spite of the impressive airmass arriving. The rock pile (MWN) however may flirt with freezing at its 6288' peak with wind chills certainly coming below freezing above treeline over the Whites. Thus remaining upsloping showers may actually produce some wet flakes at the very top of the CWA. Breezy northwest flow continues into Saturday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the 70s, except limited to the 60s in portions of the western Maine mountains. That night, high pressure builds by to the south with a weak southwest flow developing amid otherwise quiet and calm conditions . and lows just a touch warmer than the previous night.

The next short-wave pivoting down through the larger trough brings increasing clouds and showers starting Sunday with system passage centered Sunday night into Monday morning. Early looks at this system show some potential for stronger moisture ingest, and there is certainly favorable dynamic forcing with the upper level wave, which leaves some potential for convection at least toward the west. Questions with this system mainly concern how well it will phase between northern (near the international border) and southern (near the Carolina or Mid- Atlantic coast) components. This system exits east by the end of Monday with high pressure briefly building in through Tuesday.

After what will be several days of cool, Canadian airmass reinforcement, a Bermuda high is expected to build sometime next week, blocking downstream flow and pushing the upper level trough upstream over the central CONUS. Thus am expecting the storm track associated with deeper southwesterly moisture feed and warmer temperatures to lift closer to the region with increasing shower chances and a warm trend during the second half of the week.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term . Early morning fog at LEB and HIE burns off quickly this morning with VFR for all areas. Expect increasing clouds and lowering ceilings over the course of the day from south to north with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms by late in the afternoon. The better chance of showers and storms and IFR conditions will be during the overnight period, especially along the coast. This should improve for most areas on Friday as northwest flow clears out the coastal plain. Lower ceilings may linger in the mountains through the day Friday.

Long Term . VFR with gusty northwest winds up to 25-30 kts Friday evening, tapering overnight, then back up to around 20-25 kts on Saturday. High pressure builds to the south late Saturday into Sunday with light winds turning southwesterly. The next opportunity for restrictions comes with a system crossing late Sunday into early Monday with SHRA expected.

MARINE. Short Term . Southerly flow increases today as high pressure moves east and a trough approaches from the west. Gusts to 25 KT are likely over the outer waters where a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Low pressure develops as the trough arrives at the Gulf of Maine tonight and then tracks northeast through Friday. Behind the low, winds shift to the northwest and strengthen again. As a result, we will likely see a break in the advisory level winds before they ramp back up again out of the northwest on Friday.

Long Term . Gusty offshore/NWerly winds around 20-25 kts into Saturday keep wave action over the outer waters elevated with 3-5 ft seas expected. Thus a SCA from Friday may need to be extended through the overnight and into Saturday. After that, high pressure builds to the south into Sunday with winds turning out of the southwest . then the next low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. The storm track remains active near the Gulf of Maine through next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154.



NEAR TERM . Kimble SHORT TERM . Kimble LONG TERM . Casey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 24 mi47 min 58°F 62°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 29 mi27 min NW 5.8 G 5.8 61°F 64°F1 ft1015.4 hPa53°F
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 35 mi73 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 62°F1 ft1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME14 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair49°F47°F93%1016.7 hPa
Auburn-Lewiston, ME20 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair47°F47°F100%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWI

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalm--34533SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalm454453W4--CalmCalm63CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS54SE6S6SE5SW743CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brunswick, Maine
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Brunswick
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Thu -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:27 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.40.30.82.13.443.93.632.31.50.90.40.20.31.22.63.73.93.73.32.72

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River, Maine) Current
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Upper Hell Gate (Sasanoa River
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.89 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:39 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.20.30.70.90.80.80.50-0.6-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.400.50.90.90.90.80.4-0.2-0.6-0.7

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