Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Damariscotta, ME

KEY MESSAGES
1. Another cool night expected tonight, with frost likely across much of the interior.

2. Showers evolve into a steady rain for much of the area through the day on Saturday. Warmer weather returns for Sunday.

3. Showery periods expected through the weekend and most of next week occasionally interspersed with shorter periods of fair weather. Temperatures will likely average out below normal through next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Following last night's seasonably cool night, conditions look similar again tonight. However, with a but more moisture in the air, frost appears more likely tonight. A frost advisory has been issued across interior portions of the coastal plain. An increasing southwest flow overnight likely keeps the coastline a little warmer tonight. Further inland, similar low temperatures are expected, but headlines won't be issued here as the frost/freeze season based on climatology hasn't started.

In terms of temperatures, lows look to fall into the upper 20s across the north and more sheltered valleys. Elsewhere, low to mid 30s look most common, with mid to upper 30s closer to the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Clouds steadily increase through the morning hours on Saturday as a weak wave of low pressure along a warm front approaches from the southwest. Sprinkles and showers reach southern New Hampshire by mid morning, and then steadily progress northeastward through the late morning and afternoon hours. A period of steady light rain is expected along the coast and through much of the interior. Across the north looks likely to miss out on most of the moisture, with only some light showers and sprinkles expected.

This rain progresses through during the afternoon and evening hours, and mostly pushes off to the east by midnight tomorrow night. Generally less than a half inch looks likely, with amounts steadily tapering off toward the north and west. Clouds linger much of the night as northern New England gradually breaks its way into the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Frost is not a concern tomorrow night, as lows range from the upper 30s across the north, to mid 40s along the coast.

Warmer conditions return on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Highs push into the 60s and low 70s across much of the area. The immediate coast and northern areas likely remain a bit cooler, with upper 50s to low 60s more likely. Sunshine makes a return for several hours of the day, but some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm likely return in the afternoon hours ahead of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
Early next week, an upper-level low will move southward and allow for the potential to see below-average temperatures through the next week. With the introduction of the upper-level trough next week, showery weather is anticipated with elevated precipitation chances all week.

On Monday, a coastal low looks to move across the outer waters and could allow for some light rain along the coast. The low will bring an occluded front near the region and will act like a cold front, ushering in a cooler airmass. Despite the cooler air, some shower and storm potential can not be ruled out for Tuesday. Forecast soundings for Tuesday show steep low-level lapse rates, and strong mixing, combined with at least 70kts of mean wind shear and about 1- 200J of CAPE. This certainly isn't an ideal setup for thunderstorm development, but a few gusty outflows could be a possibility with developing showers. Another low looks to move into the area by Thursday morning. This low has the potential to produce more widespread and meaningful rainfall across the area. Wraparound showers look possible through the start of next weekend, indicating that weather could remain unsettled through next Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions prevail through Saturday morning. Ceilings then lower to MVFR from southwest to northeast from late morning through mid afternoon. Ceilings lower further to IFR a few hours later as showers give way to a steady light rain through the afternoon and evening hours. A few heavier showers or rumbles of thunder are possible late in the afternoon across CON, MHT, PSM, or PWM. However, thunder confidence is too low to include mention in the TAF at this time. Gradual improvement back to MVFR is possible through the overnight Saturday night, but more substantial clearing likely holds off until the daytime Sunday morning.

Outlook: Sunday: MVFR due to rain showers.

Monday: MVFR due to rain showers.

Tuesday: VFR expected.

MARINE
Southwesterly flow gradually increases ahead of an approaching cold front, with SCA conditions likely across the outer waters by Saturday evening. These persist into the early afternoon on Sunday. Winds and seas diminish with light and variable winds expected next week along with seas of 2-4ft.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ018>021.
NH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NHZ010-013.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.