Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Damariscotta, ME

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
120 PM Update...Quick update to the near term just to add flurries for the next couple hours as flow has become unblocked and they are escaping the mountains once again.

1030 AM Update...The forecast is in good shape so no major changes were made. Just trimmed back coverage of snow showers as visible radar and area webcams have shown they have retreated to the mountains. As heights build through the early afternoon, even the mountain showers will become much more isolated, if not stop completely for a brief period. Otherwise, just fit latest observations to trends.

625 AM Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion...A weak S/WV trof crossing the area this morning is allowing inversion to lift and lower levels to be a little more unstable. This is allowing upslope snow showers to cross the terrain barrier...mainly as flurries downstream. I have expanded PoP slightly and add those flurries thru sunrise.
Otherwise a colder but quiet day as surface ridging nudges into the region from the southwest.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Clipper system is set to cross the forecast area tonight.
Starting this evening WAA will slice across northern New England and provide the lift necessary for precip. Temps are forecast to be cold enough outside of the immediate coastline to be all or predominately snow. It is only looking like 3 to 4 hours of lift before tapering off...so the window for accumulation is rather small. Deep snow growth zone will support potentially efficient snow ratios...so even with little time and QPF 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible across much of the forecast area before sunrise. Pockets of the higher terrain may squeeze out a little more than that.

Once winds shift to northwest that will bring a quick end to the steady snow south of the mountains. However upslope snow showers will linger thru most of the day within and north of the mountains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
1035 PM...12Z Operational ECMWF in good agreement with ensemble mean, especially when it comes to QPF and snow next week, and going forecast seems to reasonably capture this idea at this point with first wave focused around Monday aft/eve, which is mainly low impact, as a warm front pushes NE through the CWA A second wave, which forms in base of deep trough over the gulf coast states, and then rides NE toward New England, and ride along good mid level thermal gradient on the down stream side of the 500 mb trough, has the potential to produce some heavy precip, which looks like it’ll be mostly rain at this point, and also push temps up close to 50 in some spots Wed into Wed night.

3 PM...The 500 mb pattern looks very active through next week as we will see a serious of troughs dive through the area along with some moisture being advected up the East Coast from the Gulf. This translates to precipitation chances for much of next week, with all precipitation types on the table depending on timing of the waves.

Impacts and Key Messages: Quiet until late week storm system

Details: Both the NAM and GFS Froude numbers suggest skies clear south of the mountains Sunday night as blocked northwesterly flow returns. Low temperatures look to be in the 20s.

It looks like we may only get a brief break from any precipitation as the next system follows closely behind. Models are still in slight disagreement on onset, but regardless precipitation type is going to be a tricky forecast. It likely starts as plain rain in southern zones and along the immediate coast in the Monday evening/night timeframe, with more of a mix in the foothills.
Overnight that mix line slowly sinks south. The caveat is that 850mb temperatures will be warming above freezing during this time as well, so it is not of the question that these areas could see a brief period of freezing rain. Regardless accumulations look light again as ensemble means are currently around two tenths of an inch for QPF in that time period. A warm front continues to approach on Tuesday quickly changing any lingering precipitation over to plain rain.

Models are beginning to hint at coastal cyclogenesis occuring along the frontal boundary ahead of a deep trough on Wednesday. This could get interesting as continued southwesterly flow looks to push temperatures above normal late in the week. However, there is still much uncertainty in temperatures, and thusly dominate precipitation type, between models at this time range, but something of note is a stream of moist air being advected up the East Coast from the Gulf during this time that could mean a good amount of QPF for whatever it ends up being. This is certainly a period to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...Local MVFR conditions this morning in SHSN as a weak wave moves thru the area. Otherwise VFR conditions expected thru the evening. A clipper will spread SN over northern New England overnight with widespread IFR or lower. Once steady SN moves out of the forecast area...northwest winds will lead to periods of upslope SHSN thru Sun afternoon. Areas of MVFR CIGs are likely...with local IFR or lower in SHSN north of the mtns.

Long Term...Ceilings begin to lower again Monday afternoon as another system approaches with visibility restriction possible Monday night as precipitation starts as snow. It will change to rain on Tuesday, which will help visibility some, but with rain and snow expected through Wednesday, restrictions will be variable. Winds will be less than 20 kts through Wednesday.

MARINE
Short Term...SCA continues for gusty winds this morning. Winds will diminish as surface ridging edges into the region today.
Overnight a clipper will cross the waters and CAA/gusty winds follow in its wake. SCA conditions are likely outside of the bays...and may even see some gusts of 25 kt in the bays as well.

Long Term...Winds and seas will be below SCA criteria through this period. Winds will be primarily offshore through Sunday before turning onshore by Monday night. Winds and seas next increase again during the second half of the work week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.