Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Damariscotta, ME

KEY MESSAGES
1. Low pressure brings a round of wintry weather and accumulating snowfall to much of the area early this morning into Monday.

2. Expect an active work week with multiple precipitation chances and temperatures around or a bit below normal for late March.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A winter weather event with relatively minor impacts will occur today into tonight. Minor changes to the going forecast have been made. However there are a few concerns, mainly the ability for snow to accumulate today as we deal with the mid to late March sun angle. The snow that falls early this morning will likely melt on the roads today unless snowfall rates are more than a half inch per hour. While those rates are likely in some areas, especially the mountains, it won't be ubiquitous. With that said, slippery conditions are possible, especially after sunset this evening. One caveat is the potential for an inverted trough to produce more snowfall on Monday. These are notoriously tough to predict, so confidence on any amounts with that are low.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...A mid-level trough will remain over head next week, with high pressure moving in on Tuesday.
This should allow for below-normal lows. On Wednesday, a cold front looks to move southeastward across NH and Maine.
A saturated dendritic-growth zone and some instability ahead of the front could lead to the development of snow squalls in the afternoon, especially in the mountains. Snow squalls could lead to some slick mountain passes Wednesday evening.

By the end of the week, ensembles are perhaps a little more confident in a much broader low moving from west to east Thursday night and into Friday. While models are more confident in the existence of the system, models are less confident on precipitation types.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR becoming IFR or lower as snow begins to move into the region. This is occurring first in the mtns and will gradually spread south and east through midday. Precip type may change from snow to a mix or rain across southern NH terminals and along coastal Maine. Widespread IFR prevails thru tonight with some gradual improvement possible towards sunrise Mon.

Outlook:

Monday-Monday night: VFR, though brief restrictions are possible with snow showers.

Tuesday: VFR expected.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: Brief periods of IFR possible under snow showers.

Wednesday night-Thursday night: IFR possible in rain and snow.

MARINE
SCA conditions likely in easterly flow today and continuing through Monday.

An active pattern is expected to continue through the coming work week, which will result in nearly continuous SCA conditions. There is a chance for gale force wind gusts Wednesday through Thursday depending on the location and strength of developing low pressure over or just east of the Gulf of Maine.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for MEZ007-008-012- 013.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for MEZ009-014- 018>022-024>028-033.
NH...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for NHZ004-006.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NHZ001>003-005-007>010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150>152-154.