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FXUS61 KGYX 211904 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 304 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across New Hampshire and interior Maine through this evening, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Very warm and increasingly humid conditions will follow through Thursday. A cold front will cross Thursday and will bring potential for thunderstorms with the potential for a couple to become strong to severe. It will remain warm Friday into the weekend weak systems bringing low chances for showers late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
A convectively induced short wave associated with a remnant MCS is tracking across southern Ontario this afternoon. This wave has already triggered convection across Upstate NY and VT that has spilled into NH. The 12Z HRRR suggests that thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the entire area while the best juxtaposition of shear and CAPE will be across NH and to a lesser extent into the western Maine mountains. Latest RAP analysis shows ML CAPE is now up 1000J/kg and will build up to 1500J/kg across southern and western NH with effective shear to 25-30 kts. Farther east, cool onshore flow will limit instability across the NH Seacoast and along the coastal plain of Maine. CAMs generally fire storms through 00Z with convection waning afterwards. A notable trend within the 12Z CAM suite has been for increased coverage in storms across southern NH and interior SW Maine with these storms holding together as the approach the coast. Both strong to damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be a threat with storms with the greatest threat for strong storms across central and southern NH where the best instability will be.

Tonight will be mild and humid with patchy fog likely along the coastal plain and interior valleys. The will be lingering instability overnight that could allow for isolated thunderstorms across the north. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 80s to low away from the coast and south of the mountains. Mid level ridging will try to build over the area while disturbances traversing to top of the ridge will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms across the north.
Southwest to south winds will advect some cooler marine air into the coast that will keep highs here in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

Wednesday night will be warmer than tonight with lows only dropping into the low to mid 60s. An approaching cold front will bring increasing chances for showers, and perhaps some thunder across northwestern zones by Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A shortwave stemming from an upper low north of the Great Lakes is set to cross New England during the day Thursday while sending a cold front through. This front will provide focus for showers and storms during the day as the environment out ahead it will be warm with temperatures in the 70s and 80s, and dewpoints will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A few strong to severe storms are not out of the question as bulk shear could surpass 30-35 kt while temperatures aloft will be cold, supporting the potential hail, and low-level lapse rates will be steep, supporting locally strong to damaging winds. However, the timing of the front is key here, and if it is quicker to move through, then the overall threat will be lower for strong/severe storms.

Skies quickly clear out behind the front Thursday evening into Thursday night as drier air works into the area. Overnight lows remain mild with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. It's possible some of the valleys see fog develop late and toward daybreak, and if any develops it should quickly clear up within an hour or two after sunrise. The dry air stays around for Friday providing mostly sunny skies with no rain in the forecast. It will again be quite warm with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s away from the coast.

The warmth continues over the weekend, but a couple of weak waves aloft will cross the area, bringing a chance of showers each day.
With how things look right now, the higher shower chances will be across the interior and farther north and mainly during the daytime hours. High temps are forecast to reach the 70s to low 80s for much of the area, but prevailing southerly flow/seabreeze will keep things cooler along the coast. Will also have to watch for marine fog/stratus during the nighttime hours.

The next opportunity for more widespread precip arrives early next week as global models are in decent agreement showing a more amplified trough and potentially a deepening coastal low moving into the Northeast.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...Scattered TSRA will bring potential for brief restrictions with the greatest chance for TSRA at KLEB and KCON and cannot be ruled out at KHIE, KMHT, and KPSM. There will be patchy fog tonight that will bring potential for IFR along the coast and CT Valley. Mainly VFR is expected Wednesday with potential for patchy fog again Wednesday night.

Long Term...Marine fog/stratus may produce IFR/LIFR conditions into Thursday morning, but this would be more likely at RKD. Otherwise, a cold front will bring another chance of showers and storms from late Thursday morning into the afternoon with the highest potential generally south and east of a LEB-AUG line. These will be capable of brief instances of IFR to MVFR restrictions, but conditions should remain VFR outside of precipitation on Thursday. Drier air and high pressure brings mostly VFR Friday into early Saturday, but another low pressure will bring more chances for showers and flight restrictions the rest of the weekend. Southerly flow will also keep the potential of marine fog/stratus for the coastal sites over the weekend.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight through Wednesday night. There will be scattered thunderstorms over land through this evening that will approach the waters around sunset with storms expected to weaken as they move into the waters.

Long Term...South to southwest winds will precede a cold front on Thursday, with fog remaining a threat prior to the front's passing.
The front is currently forecast to cross the waters by late afternoon or early evening with a wind shift to northerly into Thursday evening/night. Winds are expected to remain below SCA levels. Additional weak low pressures will move through over the weekend and with southerly flow generally remaining, will probably see additional fog over the waters.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Salmon Falls River entrance
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Tue -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:22 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:16 PM EDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet

Dover Point
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Tue -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:14 PM EDT     5.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 PM EDT     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dover Point, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet

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