Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 3:26 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 180516 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 116 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
The warming trend has begun with Burlington hitting 80 degrees for the first time this year. Other than a few showers today and Saturday, dry conditions are expected to prevail through the first half of next week. Temperatures are expected to continue to warm through early next week with highs approaching the mid to upper 80s next Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 116 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the overnight hours. Despite an abundance of radar returns across portions of northern New York, surface observations show no precipitation, and with trends towards less returns for the night, the region should remain dry. With lot of mid-level clouds around, temps are running a few degrees above the previous forecast so adjusted lows up a couple of degrees.

Heading into the daylight hours, it may not be as dry as expected for a few locations. If you remember several days ago, we were talking about this stalled low pressure system over the coastal Mid- Atlantic. Well, this system will finally be on the move and will be shifting northward. Models support southeasterly flow that is expected to advect moisture and showers into coastal New England and how far westward this showers move inland remains in questions. The latest package of model data hasn't helped our confidence as some models show it moving into the Connecticut River Valley while others keep the precip closer to the coast. Nevertheless, it would be just some scattered showers, at most, that would make it into the region should the precip push westward. Overall, it'll be another nice day with more cloud cover today and highs in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Quiet weather is expected for the latter half of the weekend with high pressure building over the region.
Daytime heating will allow diurnal cumulus to develop during the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain, but with ample dry air in place, precipitation is not expected. Afternoon highs will range from the lower/mid 70s east of the Greens and over the Adirondacks to the mid/upper 70s in the wider valleys; a few locations may top 80F. Lows Sunday night will likewise vary by location, with higher terrain spots in the lower/mid 50s and mid 50s to around 60F elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 323 PM EDT Friday...Ridging will settle over the region through mid week, resulting in a warming trend. With 850 mb temperatures approaching 15-16C and ample mixing from steep low level lapse rates, high temperatures are expected to warm well into the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with some valley locations possibly approaching 90F. An upper shortwave trough will ride up over the top of the ridge on Wednesday and may bring some showers and thunderstorms to mainly northern NY during the afternoon. Cloud cover from this activity may temper warming a bit, but did go a couple of degrees above the NBM both Tuesday and Wednesday given the favorable set up. Better thunderstorm chances arrive on Thursday with a cold frontal passage. Shear will be ample with 35-40 kt between 0-6 km, and while there should be plenty of CAPE, it will depend on how moist the column is and how steep mid- level lapse rates are. Still, storms could be strong with heavy rain. Trends will need to be watched as we approach mid-late next week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period under BKN-OVC mid clouds from 6000-12000 feet through midday, becoming SCT-BKN and lowering to 5000-7000 feet this afternoon. A few isolated showers are possible at KMPV and KEFK for a few hours from mid-morning through early afternoon, but visibility should not lower below VFR given the high ceilings.
Winds through the period will range from 5-10kts from the southeast, with periods of calm from 06-12Z. Exception will be KMSS where the wind direction will be more northeasterly after 14Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance TSRA, Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Troy
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Sat -- 02:08 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
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Sat -- 02:00 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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Burlington, VT,