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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 354 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late evening and overnight. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest gales to 35 knot gales becoming west 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 111959 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 259 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

High Impact Weather Potential: Snow squall potential late tonight, primarily across eastern upper Michigan with rapid and potentially significant drops in visibility.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level shortwave ridging is currently crossing northern Michigan this afternoon in advance of potent shortwave troughing digs into the western Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Attendant low pressure will cross well to our north over northern Ontario through this time frame with an associated cold front swinging west to east across the forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow squall potential late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially across eastern upper Michigan.

Aforementioned mid-level ridging continues to work its way into the area this afternoon, aiding to continue to shut off lake induced snows with just a few lingering flurries across the Tip of the Mitt.

Attention quickly turns to later tonight as an incoming mid-level wave dives into the western Great Lakes. A cold front attendant to low pressure well to our north will begin to trek west to east across the forecast area as early as 07-11z. Favorable moisture/forcing associated with this system will reinvigorate snow chances with accumulations through 12z generally at an inch or less across parts of the eastern U.P. As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, the primary concern revolves around snow squall potential after 08z tonight into early Tuesday morning.
A band of snow with small/fine flakes combined with gusts as high as ~35 mph will bring increased potential for rapid and significant drops in visibility. While the bulk of this concern lies north of the bridge, chances do exist for that band of snow to extend into the Tip of the Mitt and far northeast lower (mainly near and north of M-32).

Low temperatures tonight generally ranging from the mid-upper 20s area-wide.

SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/

Lake Snow, Especially Across the Upper Peninsula

High Impact Weather...Accumulating snow across eastern upper.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Pops and snow accumulations.

As the Clipper exits off to our northeast it will draw in a quick shot of sharply colder air Tuesday into Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures drop into the -13 to -16 C range which will lead to excellent over lake instability. This is expected to result in organized lake banding off of Lake Superior due to very good lower level moisture (mean 850-700 mb rh 70 to 80 percent). Lake effect is not expected to be nearly as intense across northern lower as moisture is less favorable (mean 850-700 mb rh only between 40 and percent). The flow will be just barely north of west at about 280 degrees. Several inches of snow accumulation are possible across northern Chippewa county including the SOO from Tuesday into early Wednesday where headlines will likely be needed. Lesser snow amounts to the south across southern Chippewa and Mackinac counties.
Meanwhile across northern lower accumulations of an inch or two are possible due to the lack of available moisture.

Ridging/drier/milder air aloft return Wednesday afternoon which should end any remaining lake effect activity. Steady warm air advection continues Wednesday night on into Thursday as well. So after a chilly Wednesday night, temperatures will begin to moderate Thursday. Highs Tuesday in the low and mid 30s, the upper 20s to low 30s Wednesday then the milder upper 30s to mid 40s Thursday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the upper teens to mid 20s. Winds will be gusty at times through the period which could prove to be problematic where it is actually snowing causing blowing and drifting snow.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Uneventful with Mild Temperatures Expected

With the possible exception of a short wave or two moving through the flow, nearly zonal flow aloft is expected to result in mainly event free conditions as well as mild temperatures through the long term. The aforementioned short waves will bring low end chances for rain and/or mixed rain and snow showers Friday into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Scattered lake effect snow showers will continue to diminish through this afternoon as winds shift more west-southwesterly. Those winds strengthen tonight with gusts as high as 25-35 kts overnight into early Tuesday. Primarily MVFR CIGs expected to continue, although some generally brief lifts to VFR possible.

MARINE

West to west-southwest winds this afternoon strengthen tonight before turning more west-northwesterly early Tuesday. Small craft advisory conditions are anticipated over all northern Great Lakes nearshore waters by tonight. Gale force wind gusts are expected over northern Lake Michigan nearshore waters for a time tonight into early Tuesday morning. Isolated gale force wind gusts cannot be ruled out over Lake Huron/Superior nearshore waters. Advisory conditions look to continue over the nearshores Tuesday into Tuesday night with the potential for gales over Whitefish Bay during the day on Tuesday.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345-346.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Tuesday night for LHZ347-348.
Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ349.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Tuesday night for LSZ322.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LSZ321.

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