Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Reed City, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

- Above Normal Temperatures Into Monday

Temperatures over the next few days will be warmer than normal (highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s) with highs through Monday in the 40s and lows tonight and tomorrow night in the 30s. This will allow for surfaces to warm and melting of the current snowpack.

- Drizzle Likely Sunday Night Into Monday Morning

Warm air advection will ramp up Sunday night with some added lift with a shortwave trough moving through. Low level moisture is plentiful in the southwest flow and with the warm air aloft soundings look drizzly with deeper moisture profiles seeing more of a light rain (along and south of I-94). With the mentioned temperatures in the above section we'll have some time for the ground to warm up a little before precipitation starts.
Temperatures will be borderline at the beginning and therefore can't rule out some freezing drizzle at the onset. Shady spots will also be more prone to a light glaze of ice before warm rain and increasing temperatures into Monday limit any ice development.
The best chances for freezing drizzle (15 percent) would be in Osceola, Clare, Mecosta, and Isabella counties.

- Cold and Lake Effect Return Tuesday through Thursday

An upper level trough swings through Tuesday with an upper level low remaining over the area through the first part of Thursday.
This will set the stage for colder air advecting into the region and once more bringing lake effect snow to the area. 850 temperatures will be gradually lowering through this timeframe with the coldest air Wednesday night into Thursday with mean 850 temperatures around 16 C below zero. That would result in temperature differences with Lake Michigan around 24 C. However we are battling some drier air, which is impacting amounts. Currently looking at the latest ensemble guidance the probability of 2 inches or more in 24 hours is around 40 percent along the lakeshore.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1249 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

MVFR ceilings are still around Mt Pleasant and Alma, but are peeling away toward the northeast as drier air flows in. Look for gusty southwest winds this afternoon. Gusts will become less frequent toward dark after 22Z, then Low Level Wind Shear will become more significant through about 06Z. Chance of IFR or MVFR ceiling development between 09 and 15Z.

MARINE
Issued at 303 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

Southwest gales are expected this afternoon until late tonight south of Pentwater. Otherwise Small Craft Advisory conditions continue across all zones into Sunday morning. Wave heights peak tonight around 7 to 10 feet.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>848.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ849.