DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

OVERVIEW: upper level ridge looks to ease east this weekend as the west coast trough lifts over the northern plains, transitioning into southern Canada. Remnants of hurricane Francine (both moisture and bits of upper level energy) could push far enough north to impact the region - mostly focused Fri night/Sat. Long term guidance then favors a rebuilding of the upper level ridge for the start of the new work week while another long wave trough moves into the west coast. EC/GFS suggest this troughing will push east moving into the latter half of next week, working across and/or edging the ridge east.

PCPN CHANCES: as the remnants of Francine rotate northward to across the mid mississippi river valley Fri, short/medium range guidance is in good agreement with a west-east running piece of upper level energy breaking north of the tropical system, sliding across the local area for later in the day Fri into Sat. Moisture from Francine will also have the opportunity to spread northward into the area with deepening/increasing RH, pws pushing 1 1/2+" along with some low level moisture transport. This mix should be enough for at least scattered convection. Instability is meager with longer, skinny profiles in bufkit soundings, but enough to support some storm threat (not severe). NBM guidance has been trending low with its rain chances - believe too low given the model agreement on available lift/increase in deeper saturation. Will "up" these rain chances to at least higher end chances (50%) for parts of the forecast area - but also see a potential to increase to "likely" (60+%) Friday night depending on how development/pcpn trends play out Fri.

Moving into next week, the ridge will offer a stout wall to bits of shortwave energy progged to spin out of the mean trough to the west.
Trends in the EC and GFS ensemble members are to keep the lift just to the west, and thus the bulk of the pcpn chances. If bits of Francine could pinwheel northwest and work under the ridge, low end rain chances could continue Sun/Mon. Overall though, the current setup and preferred outcome from the models is to lean into dry conditions through at least the middle part of the new week, increasing the chances from west to east moving into the weekend.

TEMPS: the spate of mild-warm days looks to continue through much of next week. The grand ensemble of models push probabilities for 80+ degree highs from 50-80% through next Friday. GEFS and EPS ensemble members have only a few degree spread in the 25-75% while the bulk of the members (upper 75%) reside in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Essentially, the models are fairly "confident" in the mild conditions persisting. See no reason to deviate and will ride the model blend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

VFR conditions will likely prevail for most areas through the TAF period with mainly high clouds spreading north overnight into Friday. Some lowering of VFR ceilings may occur by Friday evening with 20 to 50 percent chances for showers mainly after 14.00Z for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
Confidence was not high enough to include any shower mention yet at KLSE/KRST, but with chances increasing beyond this TAF period, showers may be included in future updates. Winds will generally remain southeasterly, with a few gusts nearing 20 kts possible Friday afternoon, especially for KRST.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.