Delwood, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delwood, WI

June 16, 2024 8:00 AM CDT (13:00 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:12 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM
Moonrise 2:31 PM   Moonset 12:56 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delwood, WI
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 161155 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 655 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms continue this morning. A few strong storms with periods of heavy rain downpours and lightning. Gusty winds and storms with small hail could develop before exiting the area.

- Very warm to hot and humid today through Tuesday. Highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

- Storms re-develop tonight. Highest chances appear north of I90 where severe storms (15% chance) will be possible along with locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Overview:

Water vapor satellite imagery, 500mb heights, and lightning showed several areas of convection at 07Z. A 500mb ridge was over the southeast U.S. with the shortwave trough from MN/IA toward Kansas City. A stronger closed low was noted over Saskatchewan.
Three convective complexes were noted with the first shortwave trough and another well-organized MCS was noted over Alberta into North Dakota. Taking a look at the WSR-88D mosaic loop, things were fairly quiet with a large area of rain over the Upper Mississippi Valley at 21Z. Through 03Z, convection lit up over the Missouri River Valley into southern Minnesota with more scattered convection farther east. The convection has continued with three different areas over MN, IA, and northeast KS. A north to south narrow line of convection extended from western WI into east Iowa developed from 06-07Z. The 16.00Z MPX sounding was quite moist with 1.59" of precipitable water (PWAT). The latest subjective surface analysis had a double- front with a surface warm from in the pressure/temperature pattern from southern MN int southwest WI. The deep moisture with mid-60s to lower 70s dewpoints axis was over western Missouri with the main warm front there. These fronts trailed northwest to a cold front over central North Dakota. With the strong moisture transport and forcing the heavier rains have been just west of the forecast area. Some local spots per the radar picked up 2.5 to 5" of rain.

Through Monday:

The shortwave trough will continue to lift northeast and push across WI this morning. Strong moisture transport continues this morning and shifts toward the Great Lakes by 18Z. The ARX VAD wind profiler showed a southwest wind at 50kts at 4000ft at 0743Z.
The 900mb wind progs have another area of strong low level winds over western Iowa (45 to 60kts) which is forecast to continue through 15Z then weaken. The mesoscale vorticity center (MCV)
over Iowa is forecast to continue to lift northeast across the forecast area with the shortwave. Meanwhile, the surface warm front pushes east across Wisconsin through 00Z with the cold front working into Minnesota. The thermal ridge with very warm temperatures at 700mb builds in and shuts down the bulk of the precipitation over the local area with decreasing clouds and warming temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Southwest winds strengthen with gusts 15 to 30 mph. The PWAT maximum around 2" should be over the local area, but shifts toward GRB's area by 18Z. Will continue to carry high pops this morning with precipitation ending from west to east. Have not seen much in the way of severe weather with this area of storms. With the limited instability would think the heavy downpours of rain and lightning would be the main hazards. Additional rainfall through 18Z could range from less than a tenth of an inch from west of RST to .25 to 1" for parts of WI. The MCV over Missouri will likely track northeast as well. For now, this feature looks to remain generally south of the area. Possibly per the 16.07Z HRRR tracking across IL.

The questions for this afternoon and tonight will revolve around how warm temperatures will get and how storms will re-develop/where the surface boundary will lay up/where will elevated storms develop/how far south? The CAMs handle the weather tonight differently with most on the dry side except for the RAP through 01Z. The FV3 has isolated storms developing. Through 06Z, several of the CAMs develop a west to east line of convection with the HRRR more toward northern WI and the ARW/NAMNest farther south toward I90. There is uncertainty in how far south the storms will develop and due to the Moderate to High instability of 3000-5000J/kg of MUCAPE and sufficient shear, severe storms will be possible. Moisture transport increases across Nebraska and shift into the forecast area, with the northern forecast area generally near the axis of instability.
The low level jet is forecast to strengthen 45 to 50kts across Nebraska and Iowa, thus storms could develop farther south into southern MN. The HRRR neural network for severe storms is generally north of the forecast area. Tonight will continue to place highest pops across our northern counties adjacent to MPX's area.

The Extended:

The front lifts north Monday as the West Coast trough deepens. The cold front moves southeast into the forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm to hot in the 80s to lower 90s and continued muggy in the 60s to lower 70s. The Day 3 SPC outlook is mostly northwest for the SLIGHT risk of severe weather, however this may shift south in the future with instability and strong moisture transport ahead of the front. In addition, additional rainfall is expected, with already moist soils. Will continue to monitor heavy rain potential.

The upper level flow is flatter Wed-Sat, thus prone to shower and storm chances for the end of the week with more seasonably temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Aside from brief MVFR vsbys this morning from passing thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Gusty SW winds around 25 to 30 knots are expected to develop this morning and persist into the evening hours. Tonight, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a stalled warm front across central MN and WI. There's a chance (40-70%) for thunderstorms to develop along a Rochester to Medford line after 00Z tonight and have a VCTS in the RST TAF at this time.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Due to the repeated storms, we'll need to assess the flood potential with each shift. The 3hr FFG remains around 2 to 3 inches. Although heavy rain fell northwest of the local area Saturday night, locally, amounts were generally less than an inch. Some areas could see another inch this morning before this wave exits the area. We'll need to monitor the rainfall rates due to the high efficiency. The storms continue lifting northeast at a pretty good clip, thus heavy rain should be localized. Tonight the heavier rainfall is again forecast north of the local area with more rain Tuesday night. With each rain event over MN, the probabilities for flooding increase for the Mississippi River. The Mississippi River should remain elevated for the next couple of weeks. There is a 30% chance that the Mississippi River reaches Minor Flood Stage over the next 10 days through Winona (and 50% chance at Wabasha).

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KVOK VOLK FIELD,WI 13 sm21 minSE 1110 smOvercast Lt Rain 66°F63°F88%29.78
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La Crosse, WI,




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