Sparta, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sparta, WI

June 15, 2024 2:39 PM CDT (19:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM
Moonrise 1:31 PM   Moonset 12:42 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sparta, WI
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 151905 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms tonight into Sunday. A few strong to severe storms possible tonight into early Sunday and north of I-90 Sunday night. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms.

- Highest shower/storm chances shift farther northwest late Sunday through early next week then increase with a cold front Tuesday night.

- Hot and humid Sunday through Tuesday. The rain from tonight may hold temperatures down somewhat. 70-95% probability of temperatures above 90 degrees Sunday for most areas.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Today through Tuesday: Heat and Storms

The next few days will bring periods of shortwave troughs into the area providing the area with increased chances of precipitation.
Strong instability and humid conditions are expected each day.
Starting with today, there continues to be an area of showers passing through. These showers will push off to the northeast during the afternoon. There will be a slight break in the action this evening before the next round of precipitation starts up tonight.
Looking ahead to tonight, a warm front will lift north this evening ahead of the rain. Strong moisture transport and a strong low level jet, 40 to 50kts, will help to increase instability and PWATs across the area. PWATS are expected to be near 2" and MUCAPE mostly between 1500 and 2000J/kg during the overnight. As the night progresses, both PWAT and MUCAPE will continue to increase. The greatest severe weather threat will be with these storms as they enter a more unstable airmass. Hail looks to be the main threat with the early to mid morning storms. With these high values and moisture transport, there will be a potential for heavy rain to occur. Current forecast has between 0.75" and 1.75" with the higher totals in western portions of the local area and lower totals in southwest Wisconsin.

Heading into Sunday, a ridge will strengthen over the eastern CONUS.
As this ridge strengthens, strong southwesterly flow will be in place through early next week. This will allow for strong instability and humid conditions over the local area. With our area being on the western fringes of the ridge, cold and warm fronts will pass through each day. On Sunday, a cold front will enter the region from the northwest and bring the next chance of thunderstorms with it. There are still some uncertainties with exactly where this boundary will set up. Some models have it further northwest while the NAM has it centered over our area. Where this boundary sets up will be where storms fire up. This region will already have the available moisture and instability to support storms, all it needs is some shear to work with to maintain the storms. Even though the cold front itself will have some shear, most of the shear will remain off to the northwest where the jet stream is stronger and there are stronger winds aloft. With this in mind, SPC has given a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for eastern Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin.

By Monday, the cold front that moved through, stalls out along I-90 through the morning. This will allow for continued chances of precipitation from the overnight period, to linger on through the morning. Eventually the warm air overcomes this boundary and pushes a warm front northward. The highest chances for severe weather and thunderstorms are expected to be where this boundary is as well as a surface low situated over the northern Plains. For Tuesday, most of the local area will be dry through the afternoon, before a cold front pushes through the area late Tuesday evening into the overnight period. This boundary will help to bring rain through the overnight into Wednesday.

The severe weather potential remains low as even though there is ample instability and moisture, shear is quite low. There could be some mesoscale processes that help to amplify this severe potential, however the overall potential looks to be low. Something that is more consistent with guidance is the chance for heavy rain to occur. Periods of high moisture transport across the Upper Midwest remain through the week. Current guidance has between 1" and 2" for most places around the local area with potential for higher amounts. Something to note is that this pattern we are in continues to change each day, an example would be that Monday continues to trend drier and so total precipitation through the time period is lower than what it was with previous model runs.

In addition to the rain, temperatures will be quite warm early next week. Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to show strong southwest flow over the area, helping to increase temperatures. Current NBM probabilities have a high chance, between 70% and 95%, of most of the local area having 90F+ degrees occurring on Sunday and Monday. With these temperatures and heat indices approaching 100F, a heat advisory may be needed either Sunday or Monday. The chances lower for Tuesday, but there is still a decent signal for temperatures to be in the upper 80s to near 90F.

Wednesday through the Weekend: More Rain Chances?

As the rest of the week unfolds, the ridge begins to flatten out.
Multiple shortwaves look to move through the region and the temperatures will cool slightly into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Rain chances will continue to be with us, as will the potential for heavy rainfall. This trend is different from yesterday, as the ridge was forecasted to shift westward and then break apart the following week. This would have meant warmer temperatures and a decrease in precipitation chances into the weekend. With the current ensemble and deterministic guidance, the pattern looks to remain active through the weekend. We will continue to monitor trends in the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with mid-level ceilings and areas of mainly light showers. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region late this evening through early Sunday morning, with a period of MVFR/IFR conditions possible within storms and in the post- storm saturated air, before skies clear during the morning on Sunday. A period of LLWS could occur this evening as a low-level jet increases, especially at KLSE, with gusty south/southwest winds into Sunday, particularly at KRST.


HYDROLOGY
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

At this time, it appears the local area can take the rainfall amounts expected through tonight. That being said, due to the higher rainfall potential over local areas, flood advisories/warnings could occur with repeated storms over the same area. The FFG of 2 to 3 inches for tonight would likely decrease after the rain tonight, so will need to assess for the multiple rounds of rainfall next week. Through Wednesday night, a large portion of MN could see 3-4"+ of rainfall. This would likely keep the Mississippi River elevated for the next couple of weeks. There is a 30% chance that the Mississippi River reaches Minor Flood Stage over the next 10 days through Winona (and 40% chance at Wabasha).

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KCMY SPARTA/FORT MC COY,WI 4 sm44 minSE 0910 smMostly Cloudy75°F55°F50%29.98
KBCK BLACK RIVER FALLS AREA,WI 22 sm24 minSE 0710 smClear75°F55°F50%30.00
KLSE LA CROSSE RGNL,WI 24 sm46 minSE 0910 smPartly Cloudy75°F54°F47%29.97
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La Crosse, WI,




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