Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sparta, WI
 | Sunrise 5:20 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 10:17 PM Moonset 5:58 AM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sparta, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 130535 AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain focus turns northward tonight, mostly north of I-94. Smaller rain chances (20-40%) continue south of there for the rest of the afternoon/evening, repeating for Fri afternoon/evening.
- A smattering of low end rain chances for the weekend (20-40%), but there will be more dry periods than wet. A return to a more active pattern (aka, rain chances) for the start of the new work week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
- REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: the focus for widespread rains turns northward tonight as a shortwave trough tracks from the northern plains to across northern MN/northern WI. The low level jet/850 mb moisture transport noses into the shortwave, while the system transitions east along an elevated 850 mb west-east running front over northern WI. An area of showers and a few storms will blossom across central MN this evening, spreading east across northern WI overnight. Locally, most of the pcpn chances will be north of I-94.
To the south, the front that sparked the storms across IA yesterday is still wavering from southern MN southeast into northeast IA.
Instability has pooled south of the front, and as daytime heating peaks the CAMS suggest spotty showers/storms could spark in response to the lift/instability. Little shear to work with, and the instability is marginally. Whatever storm could get going would likely be pulsy in nature. A stronger storm could produce small hail, enhanced wind gusts. Not anticipating severe storms.
-FRIDAY: pcpn will be ongoing to the north and likely continue for the better part the day (again, locally north of I-94). To the south, that same sfc front is still hanging around, but will get some push east as a ripple in the upper level flow slips east across MN. Meanwhile, farther south over the mid mississippi river valley, another, but more defined shortwave trough, will be making slow profess east. Spiral bands on the northside of the trough center could swing far enough north to graze parts of northeast IA/southwest WI. Its a "mess" with a hodgepodge of forcing mechanisms, nothing strong, but will provide enough lift along with increasing instability south of I-90 for more shower/storm chances in the afternoon/evening (mostly 20-40%).
- WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: broad ridging still on tap for the weekend, but not stout and doesn't look like much of a barrier to eastward progression of any various bits of shortwave energy/mcvs.
GEFS/EPS/NAM12 have suggested more dry than not for the weekend, however - at least until Sunday night.
Moving into the new week the upper level flow looks like it will flatten and be more zonal in orientation. Various shortwave troughs, mcvs, any lingering frontal boundaries will provide more shower and storm chances. The setup is rather messy, chaotic in nature and the models don't have "clear cut" scenarios to latch on to. This lowers confidence in location/timing for the higher end chances, but Mon- Wed continues to favor rain chances across the region. Expect more refinement to the expectations as we move through the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Drier air moving in from the east has caused a rapid reduction in the showers and storms over the past 3 hours and this trend should continue into Friday morning. CAMs are showing some isolated to scattered showers along a cold front on Friday afternoon and evening. Due to the lack of certainty on the location, kept the TAFs dry for now.
With the models continuing to show MVFR ceilings at KRST between 13.12z and 13.15z, left them in the 13.06z TAF, but confidence is on the low side that they will occur.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain focus turns northward tonight, mostly north of I-94. Smaller rain chances (20-40%) continue south of there for the rest of the afternoon/evening, repeating for Fri afternoon/evening.
- A smattering of low end rain chances for the weekend (20-40%), but there will be more dry periods than wet. A return to a more active pattern (aka, rain chances) for the start of the new work week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025
- REST OF THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: the focus for widespread rains turns northward tonight as a shortwave trough tracks from the northern plains to across northern MN/northern WI. The low level jet/850 mb moisture transport noses into the shortwave, while the system transitions east along an elevated 850 mb west-east running front over northern WI. An area of showers and a few storms will blossom across central MN this evening, spreading east across northern WI overnight. Locally, most of the pcpn chances will be north of I-94.
To the south, the front that sparked the storms across IA yesterday is still wavering from southern MN southeast into northeast IA.
Instability has pooled south of the front, and as daytime heating peaks the CAMS suggest spotty showers/storms could spark in response to the lift/instability. Little shear to work with, and the instability is marginally. Whatever storm could get going would likely be pulsy in nature. A stronger storm could produce small hail, enhanced wind gusts. Not anticipating severe storms.
-FRIDAY: pcpn will be ongoing to the north and likely continue for the better part the day (again, locally north of I-94). To the south, that same sfc front is still hanging around, but will get some push east as a ripple in the upper level flow slips east across MN. Meanwhile, farther south over the mid mississippi river valley, another, but more defined shortwave trough, will be making slow profess east. Spiral bands on the northside of the trough center could swing far enough north to graze parts of northeast IA/southwest WI. Its a "mess" with a hodgepodge of forcing mechanisms, nothing strong, but will provide enough lift along with increasing instability south of I-90 for more shower/storm chances in the afternoon/evening (mostly 20-40%).
- WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: broad ridging still on tap for the weekend, but not stout and doesn't look like much of a barrier to eastward progression of any various bits of shortwave energy/mcvs.
GEFS/EPS/NAM12 have suggested more dry than not for the weekend, however - at least until Sunday night.
Moving into the new week the upper level flow looks like it will flatten and be more zonal in orientation. Various shortwave troughs, mcvs, any lingering frontal boundaries will provide more shower and storm chances. The setup is rather messy, chaotic in nature and the models don't have "clear cut" scenarios to latch on to. This lowers confidence in location/timing for the higher end chances, but Mon- Wed continues to favor rain chances across the region. Expect more refinement to the expectations as we move through the weekend.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Drier air moving in from the east has caused a rapid reduction in the showers and storms over the past 3 hours and this trend should continue into Friday morning. CAMs are showing some isolated to scattered showers along a cold front on Friday afternoon and evening. Due to the lack of certainty on the location, kept the TAFs dry for now.
With the models continuing to show MVFR ceilings at KRST between 13.12z and 13.15z, left them in the 13.06z TAF, but confidence is on the low side that they will occur.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCMY
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCMY
Wind History Graph: CMY
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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La Crosse, WI,
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