Hill City, SD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hill City, SD

June 16, 2024 5:58 AM MDT (11:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM
Moonrise 3:28 PM   Moonset 1:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hill City, SD
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Area Discussion for - Rapid City, SD
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FXUS63 KUNR 161049 AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 449 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front passing through early this morning, with strong northwest winds behind the front.

- Nocturnal storms expected tonight into Monday morning. Some storms could be severe.

- More storms possible later Monday, with some severe potential again.

DISCUSSION
(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Current surface analysis shows cold frontal boundary passing through the forecast area early this morning. At the upper levels, southwest flow is setting up aloft, with a mild disturbance over western SD. Radar shows light showers/storms generating over the western ND/SD border, moving northeast into ND, otherwise clear.
Temperatures out ahead of the boundary sit in the mid 60s to low 70s, while behind the front areas are dropping into the upper 50s this morning.

Strong pressure rises behind the cold front will allow for gusty northwest winds for a brief time this morning, with gusts 50 to 65 mph possible over much of the western SD plains area. Wind advisory and High Warning are in effect for the overnight hours, but should be done by 6am at the latest. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front today, with highs ranging from the upper 60s over the Black Hills, to around 80 in south central SD. Shortwave energy makes its way across the northern plains later tonight. Coupled with increasing 850mb theta-e advection and stronger 0-6km shear, expecting some nocturnal storms to develop along a frontal boundary stretching from southwest of the forecast area up into MN. MU CAPE values overnight climb into the 1500-2500 j/Kg range. Main threat will be large hail with these late night elevated storms. CAMS do show some secondary developments further north in our forecast area, but main severe threat will range from southwestern SD to central SD where the better forcing and shear sets up.

An even cooler day is expected for Monday, with low level northeasterly flow over the region. Highs stay in the 60s for much of the forecast area, with south central SD being the exception in the mid 70s. Another wave makes its way over the northern plains later Monday, allowing for potential redevelopment of showers/storms. Storm development will be conditional though, as models show a stratus deck across much of the region that may limit potential energy. How fast the clouds clear out Monday will determine if storms are able to develop, as well as severe potential. NAM shows stratus deck lingering long enough to potentially hamper any storm development, while the GFS clears out clouds closer to central and south central SD, allowing for increasing CAPE and storm potential. If storms are able to fire up, main threats with this later Monday disturbance will be both hail and strong winds, but cannot rule out a tornado with the better low level helicity near the boundary.

Progressing towards mid-week, upper level PAC NW trough swings across the Rockies and over MT/ND around Wednesday. Some isolated showers/storms may be possible the middle of the week, however mostly dry conditions can be expected. Better chance for precipitation comes closer to the weekend, as temperatures warm back up and a mid-level wave rides up the southwesterly flow.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 447 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Gusty northwest winds (20-35kts) on the western SD plains will quickly subside this morning. VFR conditions expected through 03z Monday. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will develop after 02z Monday with MVFR conditions in the strongest storms. In addition, IFR CIGS due to stratus may develop near the SD/NE border after 06z Monday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KCUT CUSTER COUNTY,SD 15 sm65 minNNW 09G1910 smClear54°F30°F41%29.87
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Rapid City, SD,




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