Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hill City, SD
July 2, 2024 11:25 PM MDT (05:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:13 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:07 AM Moonset 6:02 PM |
Area Discussion for - Rapid City, SD
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FXUS63 KUNR 030408 AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1008 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorm chances Wednesday - Showery/cool conditions possible for Independence day - Warming for the first part of next week
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Currently the surface trough/cool front is sitting on the SD/MN border with convection firing across E. Neb already. 500Hpa low conts to spin across Manitoba with weak wave/trof now moving through ern WY and into the Black Hills region. NLDN lightning plot shows isold returns with some of the showers/thundershowers moving through nern WY and NW Neb associated with aforementioned weak wave and trof. Much stronger wave is now dropping into NW MT out of BC/AB and this will be the wave that will garner the attention for Wednesday.
As the 500hpa trof/wave moves across the area for the remainder of today, still anticipating scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Ensembles are showing sfc based CAPE values less than 500 J/Kg and 0-6km shear AOA 30kts. While not discounting a brief TSRA with some pea/dime hail...just am not seeing much in the way for severe storm development for the remainder of the day.
HRRR shows RH values decreasing with subsidence behind exiting wave/trough overnight...lending credence to a mostly clear/partly cloudy night with seasonably cool temperatures.
On Wednesday, attention turns to stronger wave rotating through region...coupled with east/west boundary/cool front located along the NE/SD border. Ensembles shows SB CAPE values AOA 1k J/Kg with little if any CIN remaining by 18z, especially across SW SD...but show a narrow ribbon of 500-1000 J/Kg SB CAPE values lifting northward along the WY/SD border ahead of the surface trof pushing east. Mean 0-6 km shear values are sufficient enough (40-50kts)
that an isolated tornado can not be ruled out across SW SD in the vicinity of the E/W boundary that will be located along the border.
Wednesday night and Independence Day, the biggest question is how many lingering clouds with sprinkles/showers remain as region remains in broad cyclonic flow. 850Hpa and 700Hpa condensation pressure defs show partly/mostly cloudy conditions through at least mid-afternoon Thur before drier conditions try to push in from the west. Ensemble guidance will most likely be a good first guess for temps and will just need to make game day adjustments as those periods get closer.
Gazing ahead...500hpa heights don’t really begin to recover until the first part of next week when western US ridge begins to rebuild. The most active track at this time appears to take most of the short wave energy south of the region, but the NW flow regime can be tricky with weak embedded waves/fronts.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1006 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Storms and showers will be in the area mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening and may cause intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions.
Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1008 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Thunderstorm chances Wednesday - Showery/cool conditions possible for Independence day - Warming for the first part of next week
DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Currently the surface trough/cool front is sitting on the SD/MN border with convection firing across E. Neb already. 500Hpa low conts to spin across Manitoba with weak wave/trof now moving through ern WY and into the Black Hills region. NLDN lightning plot shows isold returns with some of the showers/thundershowers moving through nern WY and NW Neb associated with aforementioned weak wave and trof. Much stronger wave is now dropping into NW MT out of BC/AB and this will be the wave that will garner the attention for Wednesday.
As the 500hpa trof/wave moves across the area for the remainder of today, still anticipating scattered showers/thunderstorms.
Ensembles are showing sfc based CAPE values less than 500 J/Kg and 0-6km shear AOA 30kts. While not discounting a brief TSRA with some pea/dime hail...just am not seeing much in the way for severe storm development for the remainder of the day.
HRRR shows RH values decreasing with subsidence behind exiting wave/trough overnight...lending credence to a mostly clear/partly cloudy night with seasonably cool temperatures.
On Wednesday, attention turns to stronger wave rotating through region...coupled with east/west boundary/cool front located along the NE/SD border. Ensembles shows SB CAPE values AOA 1k J/Kg with little if any CIN remaining by 18z, especially across SW SD...but show a narrow ribbon of 500-1000 J/Kg SB CAPE values lifting northward along the WY/SD border ahead of the surface trof pushing east. Mean 0-6 km shear values are sufficient enough (40-50kts)
that an isolated tornado can not be ruled out across SW SD in the vicinity of the E/W boundary that will be located along the border.
Wednesday night and Independence Day, the biggest question is how many lingering clouds with sprinkles/showers remain as region remains in broad cyclonic flow. 850Hpa and 700Hpa condensation pressure defs show partly/mostly cloudy conditions through at least mid-afternoon Thur before drier conditions try to push in from the west. Ensemble guidance will most likely be a good first guess for temps and will just need to make game day adjustments as those periods get closer.
Gazing ahead...500hpa heights don’t really begin to recover until the first part of next week when western US ridge begins to rebuild. The most active track at this time appears to take most of the short wave energy south of the region, but the NW flow regime can be tricky with weak embedded waves/fronts.
AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1006 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Storms and showers will be in the area mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening and may cause intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions.
Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
WY...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCUT
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCUT
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCUT
Wind History graph: CUT
(wind in knots)
Rapid City, SD,
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