Hill City, SD Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hill City, SD

June 15, 2024 9:23 PM MDT (03:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 2:24 PM   Moonset 1:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hill City, SD
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Area Discussion for - Rapid City, SD
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FXUS63 KUNR 160249 AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 849 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon, crossing western SD through early evening.

- Gusty northwest winds are expected behind a cold front tonight, with advisory criteria possible for a short time.

- Nocturnal storms will be possible Sunday night, some of which could be severe.

- Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible Monday, mainly across central SD.

UPDATE
Issued at 847 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Have issued a wind advisory for northwest and west-central SD overnight given the strong winds moving southeast across southeast MT with the cold front.

DISCUSSION
(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Upper level analysis shows broad ridging over much of the CONUS, with a trough pushing into the Pac NW. Weak shortwaves are moving through the trough, and the one responsible for this afternoon's thunderstorms is moving through WY. Its surface trough is pushing into the western Dakotas, evident by a line of showers/storms. Southerly winds ahead of the trough are advecting warm, moist air into the CWA: temps are warming into the 80s, and dew points across western/central SD are in the 50s and 60s.

By mid-afternoon, MLCAPE is expected to reach 1500-2500 J/kg across the western SD plains. Upper shortwave will begin to slide through our CWA, with the best upper divergence across NW SD. Supercells will be supported by 0-6 km shear increasing from ~30 kts early afternoon to ~45 kts early this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but high LCLs will be a limiting factor. Storms will dissipate and move out of our CWA by mid to late evening.

The cold front will slide through the western Dakotas overnight, behind which pressure rises of 3-4 mb/3 hr would support strong northwesterly winds. With sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph possible, advisory criteria may be met; however, forecast soundings indicate this would occur for only a couple of hours.
Therefore, will forgo advisory issuance.

Breezy winds Sunday morning will diminish through the day.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the cold front, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, warmest across southern SD.

Upper flow becomes southwesterly late Monday, as another low pressure system moves into the Pac NW. Weak shortwave energy emanating from this trough will cross the northern plains Sunday night. With increasing 850 mb theta-E advection across southern SD and strong shear, late night thunderstorms (some severe) are expected to develop along a boundary between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north. PWATs of 140-160% of normal will support heavy rain as well.

Cool high pressure will sink into SD Monday. With breezy easterly winds, highs will be only in the 60s most places. The exception will be south central SD: with highs in the 70s and dew points in the 60s again, decent MLCAPE will develop by mid-afternoon. As the Pac NW trough digs into the Rockies Monday afternoon, shortwave energy will once again move over the CWA As a surface trough slides through the northern plains, showers/storms will develop. Showers are expected over the cooler parts of the CWA, but strong to severe storms will be possible over central SD, where shear and buoyancy will be supportive.

Below average temperatures will persist through Wednesday. Mostly dry weather is expected Tues/Wed, although isolated storms cannot be ruled out. Chances for storms increase towards the end of the week, when temps warm back near average (highs in the mid-70s to near 80).

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 531 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Isolated/scattered thunderstorms will push across western SD through this evening, ending by midnight. Gusty, erratic winds and brief MVFR conditions possible with stronger storms. A fast moving cold front will cross the area after 03z, bringing localized northwest wind gusts around 40kts, especially just east/northeast of the Black Hills. Winds will gradually diminish by Sunday morning. Widespread VFR conditions expected Sunday.

UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for SDZ001-002-012-013-025- 026-030-031-072-073-078.
WY...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KCUT CUSTER COUNTY,SD 15 sm30 minSW 0610 smClear68°F46°F46%29.73
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